A long warm to hot spell with the chance of storms or showers: February 16-2?

[StratoBendigo]

I can't see any more rain this month. 15mm will likely be our Feb rain total. About 50% of average, although many February's are rain-less here.

[stevco123]

I'll be happy with maximums of 21s and 22s for the rest of Feb, thank you

[QldTwister]

Well that was a nice summer while it lasted Wednesday Thursday Friday and Saturday where great days.

Now cool to cold and windy for days and days and days heat pretty much done bar few odd days here and there i think

No major weather either for next week or 2 just Sly winds for days boooo

[StratoBendigo]

Yeah, very comfortable weather this week. Feb will end up more than 2c below average in temps at this rate.

One thing that's been absent this summer has been storms. Dullsville.

[hillybilly]

Cool max of 17C here. Basically fine, with just 0.2mm in the gauge.

Starting to dry out now, after such a lush few months Progs trying to produce something, then it disappears. Lots of upper troughs but they just don’t get going til they are over NSW or eastern Vic.

Reckon those calling end of summer might be disappointed. Plenty of time for another burst or two of heat. I recall a few past summers which had a fake start to autumn, only to revert to heat.

[Didjman]

Reckon those calling end of summer might be disappointed. Plenty of time for another burst or two of heat. I recall a few past summers which had a fake start to autumn, only to revert to heat.

Has happened a lot in recent years. I remember as a kid in Melbourne, Easter was always cold, wet and windy. Showing my age

[StratoBendigo]

Yeah, Autumn 2005 and March 2008 were classic examples of a mild summer and hot Autumn afterwards. A few others in earlier years as well.

Long term - this year could see an interesting winter. IOD is likely to dip back to -ve (yay!), although mixed forecasts on ENSO at present. Maybe a double-dip La-Nina, maybe a gradual shift towards a weak El-Nino?

[stevco123]

Summer never got started

A burst of heat would be nice, but wouldn't make up for an entire summer lost (if you like the heat haha)

Nice crisp morning here this morning. Autumn is-a knocking

[Gordon]

4C here this morning, probably more like 2C in the valley.

Feeling like autumn now. March may still throw in some heat, but if it does, it'll never match what Feb is capable of - days are shorter and sun angle lower. The number of 'hot' hours will be less, and hot March nights are almost unknown - at least up here.

[Skywalker]

Definitely has a early winter feel to it this morning with a few chunky showers pushing through. Great timing considering I only mowed the lawns last night.

Have a feeling it's going to be a long winter this year after a crap summer.

[Tassiedave]

No rain on the horizon - boring weather for at least 10 days by the looks. ACCESS G tries to spin up a cyclone in Nth Queensland though.

[Adam38]

I think Perth is the only capital that has had a hot summer this year, 23 35c+ days so far and many more to come.
I’m heading up to NSW for 2 weeks tomorrow, Lake Hume and then a week north of Byron so hopefully I will see some decent storm action...

[hillybilly]

Getting hard to write about the weather with so little happening. It feels like autumn atm. Cold mornings, and nice sunny days. Wish we could get some rain, though.

Sneaky fronts on Friday, Monday and perhaps Wednesday will keep the mostly mild pattern in place. Unfortunately they all look pretty dry with storms to our north and showers to our south. Vic is stuck in between.

[Gordon]

So while we're all bored, anyone care to comment on how the latest BOM rainfall outlook (today) looks like this for 1-7 March?



There's a decent rainfall event on ACCESS starting Tuesday 2nd March, but nothing on GFS or EC out to the 5th? Are BOM working off ACCESS alone for these shorter term outlooks?

[Mike]

3.8 degrees this morning up to 21.7 this arvo. zzzzzzzzzzzz

[hillybilly]

So while we're all bored, anyone care to comment on how the latest BOM rainfall outlook (today) looks like this for 1-7 March?



There's a decent rainfall event on ACCESS starting Tuesday 2nd March, but nothing on GFS or EC out to the 5th? Are BOM working off ACCESS alone for these shorter term outlooks?

That outlook is based on ACCESS-S. Has good skill, but always look at patterns beyond ten days rather than details.

The tropics are about to get very active with one and perhaps two TCs. A lot in the south depends on where they end up.

Damp night in the Nongs. 1mm so far. Been a dry couple of weeks so anything is welcome. Ok falls down near the Otways and South Gippsland. Perhaps need a thread for the cool weather

[Gordon]

Thanks. Most of the the rain has gone again on the latest 10 day ACCESS run. Oh well, a bit of drizzle now.