Models have settled down. Trough looks to be moving into central early arvo with clearing late arvo. Quite a classic storm scenario on EC with storms exploding over north central in the morning, and spreading south and east during the day. Looks pretty good for central parts though the east, but predictably peaking over the northeast where nearly all northerly systems do
Moisture infeed is excellent with precipitable water values near 50mm during the morning on the through so anything that gets going will dump.
Tending to think 30mm on the Nongs, but could well score another 50mm Friday
Expecting top falls over 100mm in the northeast. Unfortunately the low drifts southeast so we don’t get the classic swly part. This is an exceptional low for February, so anticipating a fair bit of weather back through SA and a large storm surge which coincides with one of the higher tides of the year.