Becoming hot then rain and storms: Dec 13-20

[hillybilly]

Thread for the new week which looks very promising. Couple of warm to hot days, then a trough builds to our west with moist northeast flow bringing down tropical moisture. This culminates in showers and storms, possibly spreading to rain areas. Totals vary a lot across the models, but could be substantial.

To our north, the first part bring flooding rains onto the NSW and southeast Queensland coasts.

[Dane]

Lets hope this one delivers Hillbilly. Only had 16mm's here so far. Ballarat Airport has only had 6mm's.
BOM not too excited at this stage anyway.

[Hawker]

I think this current period of our climate for us needs to be renamed.
Something like

La Duda

Though with a bit of luck we might still get the odd trough or 2 move through for a bit of stormy weather.

[hillybilly]

Near perfect 25C here in the Nongs today. Garden is going gangbusters following last weeks rain.

Two more warm to hot ones. Progs are annoying spraying. Should see showers and storms developing Wednesday, though not all models agree. They are also quite jumpy.

NSW and Queensland getting the biggest system for some time Some very expensive houses on the coast are looking pretty precarious with two or three near record tides ahead and 10m waves off shore

[hillybilly]

Progs settling Looks like 10-40mm for west central through to the east. Heavier falls near the ranges. Showers starting on Tuesday (isolated) becoming more widespread Wednesday and Thursday. Cold uppers and weak low for Saturday. Could possibly see a flurry on the alps late or on Sunday morning. Looks like the odd rumble is possible on most days, though not really expecting a lot. Bit marginal and unfocused on most days, except through the northeast and Gippsland.

Heavy falls along the east coast with multiple troughs and lows. Today could bring the highest tides on record in spots, and tomorrow morning similar. The storm surge is now around 50cm on the coast around the Gold Coast and Brisbane and the high tide is rapidly approaching. Wind gusting over 100km/hr off shore https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coas ... torm-sites

[StratoBendigo]

Looks like another ho-hum 5-10mm system for us later in the week.

GFS has yet another big tropical system for the Top-End and Eastern NSW later in December. Not much happening here except persistent South-easterlies....

[Hawker]

Looks like another ho-hum 5-10mm system for us later in the week.

GFS has yet another big tropical system for the Top-End and Eastern NSW later in December. Not much happening here except persistent South-easterlies....

Its good though they are not hot northerlies.

[StratoBendigo]

Looks like another ho-hum 5-10mm system for us later in the week.

GFS has yet another big tropical system for the Top-End and Eastern NSW later in December. Not much happening here except persistent South-easterlies....

Its good though they are not hot northerlies.

True. Although today is a bit toasty with a NNE wind and 33 degC. The good thing this summer is that the heat engine in NW Australia has had a heap of rain dumped on it in the past week.

[Tassiedave]

Tas temps today: Bushy Park 34.7, Cape Bruny 33.6, Hobart 33.5, Strahan 33.1, Launceston 27.5

[Tassiedave]

8.50 pm temps in Tas: Hobart 28, Ouse 27.3, Strahan 26.3, Maatsuyker Island 26.1, Launceston 21.3

[Gordon]

Messiest models I've seen for a long time; 24-48 hours out and they're still jumping around as if the rain/change is 14 days out! Weird.

[snowfall]

Was thinking the same Gordon, especially for the central ranges. Broad pattern mainly keeps the heavier falls out towards east Gippsland and parts of the north east, but details are jumping around for central areas. The models seem to be struggling with the timing and placement of the low (somewhere out near eastern Vic) and associated trough, at least on tonight’s runs. Expecting a hit and miss set up overall, depending largely on convection and showers training over some areas. Typically I would expect a southerly oriented airflow and a fairly moist airmass to deliver a reasonable amount of rain (plus fog and drizzle) to the south side of the central ranges, but I’m not so confident this time.

We sure need rain though. We’re only on 7.6mm for the month and, with the wind and heat over the past few days, the ground has really dried out. Not unusual to have such periods in summer, but so far it’s looking like it will be a dry month in these parts, not too dissimilar to last December. Would be good to get some proper La Niña systems come through, but the focus is further up the east coast for now.

[Sean]

Tue and Wed still looking troughy, but I have little confidence in anything right now. Forecasts have remained fairly consistent re. the top half of the country, but -- as mentioned -- it's jumpy down here and I'm not sure there's going to be much instability.

Really, it's been a fairly lame spring going on a lame summer right now... Our lines of latitude are pretty much one giant girdle of high pressure

[hillybilly]

Models just keep wiggling. Today they look better again. Will get the first showers today, but very isolated and mainly near the trough which currently sits near Colac. This trough pushes through but then drifts back west on Wednesday and Thursday slowly deepening. Much more showers and even the odd rumble tomorrow and more again on Thursday wth a very moist southerly changing pushing through late. Could be quite good falls on Wednesday with widespread storms, particular central and east. Looks like lots of drizzle into Friday morning in the south.

Then back to days of troughs into next week. Going to be a very wet ten days for East Gippsland then most of the east coast. Not the week to be having a beach holiday up there (if you can find a beach ).

[Gordon]

Light rain here, not enough to measure.

[Tassiedave]

It's 31 degrees at 3.30 pm in Launceston currently warmer than Hobart, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane, Sydney, Darwin and Cairns

[hillybilly]

Stinker up here with 31C. Now a sweaty 20C with clouds just above the tree tops. Few spots of rain, and expecting fog and perhaps a bit of mizzle overnight.

Showers and storms start cranking tomorrow. Not convinced for Melbourne but a chance. Thursday looks much better.

[hillybilly]

Thick fog here this morning. Rainband stuck on the southwest coast today and some showers out east. Perhaps the odd convective shower elsewhere but not very widespread. The rainband on the southwest barely budges so could well be quite substantial falls under it, while spots just to its north and east get zilch.

Tomorrow looks like a substantial storm outbreak for central and eastern parts, with a thick drizzle band to follow overnight. Bit of spread in the models, but EC which is usually best has the trough deepening through west central with widespread storms from mid arvo.

[StratoBendigo]

Not expecting anything here to be honest. In fact the next two weeks look very dry on extended GFS.

So much for La Nina....

Although I'm hearing of some rather spectacular crop yields this year. It's just a shame that our dilapidated rail networks aren't coping too well. Two derailments in 24 hrs - one at St James due to what looks like poor track condition, and a runaway neat Mt Kembla in NSW which saw 39 wagons tip over at speed.

[Gordon]

STW for Heavy Rainfall now issued for Bendigo and Castlemaine... storms creeping south, will they make it here?