Possible STORMS - hot and cold Dec 5/6

[Didjman]

An interesting weekend of weather ahead. Models are showing a deepening low with troughs tracking east across the Bight then sliding SE across (or scraping) Vic/Tas. Interestingly this system coincides with a lobe of the LWT (hence the possibility of hot and cold storms). Currently there is wiggle room in the models as expected this far out.

[Gordon]

2mm here to start December, better than nothing (just). Cold too with 5C overnight and still only 9C.

Looking like it might be impressively cold on Monday.

[StratoBendigo]

Yep, looks rather chilly next week. We could end up having a cooler December than November.

I can't see more than 10mm for us though. The monsoon is taking its time. Last month happened to be the 3rd driest November in 40 years for Eastern Australia. So much for La-Nina....

[StratoBendigo]

Incidentally, 3.9 degC here this morning. Coldest December temp since 2011. Significant, especially compared to the 48c in NSW yesterday!!!

[Dane]

Pretty cold here this morning too. Down to 6.1c at my place and 3.8c at Ballarat Airport.
Not that unusual though. The All time record low for December at the Airport is
Minus 1.0c on 5-12-91.

[Sean]

Looks to favour eastern NSW and Tas at this stage.

EC progging waves of thunderstorms across Sydney Sat afternoon. If it weren't so damn pricy, I'd be moving there asap. Sick of always missing out!

[hillybilly]

Progs look solid, though wiggling. Multiple troughs, Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Should add up, eventually. South and ranges will be the focus as usual. Storms a best chance Saturday and again on Monday. Monday looks better for central, near the front atm.

Potential for a substantial summer snow event in the alps, and will be a significant storm surge on the Bays and Bass Strait. Tides are moderate atm, so not a big tidal cycle which will temper it a bit.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

1-5 sat Sunday
10-20 Monday fingers crossed.

[hillybilly]

Been a nice couple of days up here with big diurnal ranges. 6C yesterday for a min, and 7C this morning with Max’s in the low 20s.

Tomorrow looks half decent. Nice shot of moisture with a deep trough moving through mid arvo. Should be in Melbourne about 5pm. Temps ahead of it will spike into the mid to high 20s. Pressures are very low and there is going to be quite a significant surge on the coast. Could see anomalies approaching 50cm. Puts the usual low spots around the bay and Yarra in line for potential minor inundation.... these inundation events are growing much more frequent btw.

Should see heavy showers in the northeast early, then a band of heavy showers and storms near the change. Expecting it to the classic fast moving band, with 5-15mm. Will probably have bows and holes, so some will win and some lose.

Follow up fronts for Sunday, and then strong one Monday. Will see decent snow at the usual southern high spots (Lake Mt, Baw Baw).

Pattern change in the progs. Starting to look a deep low will develop off WA northwest next week. Could be be a monsoon low or cyclone. Guess we will see.

[StratoBendigo]

Probably 5-10mm here on Saturday night. Quite cold for a few days afterwards, ie. High teens for max temps.

Incidentally, the dry weather in the past month has meant that grain crop quality has mostly been very good. 9 million tonnes are expected to be harvested.

[snowfall]

Quite pleasant, sunny and calm here the past few days. Plus some cool nights - overnight minimums have been 7c, 5c and 7c the past 3 nights. Nothing unusual though, as we tend to get those sort of temps on and off during December, but nice to have cool mornings nonetheless. Not sure how we'll fare this weekend for rain - most models are projecting a rain shadow to the west and northwest of Melbourne given the orientation of the systems, but hopefully we'll pick up at least a few mm.

Still curious about how this La Nina will unfold as we head further into summer - hopefully synoptic patterns line up a bit better to more effectively tap into tropical moisture. The MJO is coming back into our region, so hopefully that will help. I think people along some areas of the east coast, especially Queensland, are wondering where their La Nina is! It has been a dry November in some of those areas.

[StratoBendigo]

In fact for much of the Queensland coast it's been one of their driest November's. I think mid-December still looks good.

[Sean]

Looking at the precip maps, the train of moisture is still tracking over the Philippines and surrounding seas. Moisture is building across the top end though.

Just wish these high pressure systems would stop dominating. There are lows through the interior, but a big area of high pressure to the east of QLD, which is keeping much of the moisture at or above the equator - very weak inflows right now.

[hillybilly]

A wild day coming up for most of. A rapidly deepening trough moving through during the arvo, likely through central around 5-7pm. A band of rain and storms developing ahead and with the front, with heavy falls likely about the northeast. Will be a substantial storm surge on the coast which will continue through tomorrow, and a severe weather warning posted for winds.

Expecting around 10mm in the Nongs today. Showery and windy Sunday in the south and strong cold front for Monday.

[StratoBendigo]

Still only looks like a 5mm system here.

Worth noting that Northern WA is going to get a good drink in the coming week. And probably extending a fair way into the desert too.

The atmosphere is really starting to finally respond to La Nina.

[Skywalker]

The disgusting filth has returned today after a week of near perfect conditions.
Looks like the sprinkler will have to come out tomorrow to replace the moisture being sucked out of the ground by this windy rubbish.

[StratoBendigo]

Wind has picked up but radar is wildly overestimating rainfall. Perhaps lots of virga.

[stevco123]

DEAD CALM here. Nothing like what the forecast said

[StratoBendigo]

Wind is now howling. Branches flying.

[James]

really severe winds here!