Settled week then rain? 23-31 March

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

Moderator: Rivergirl

Forum rules
When posting photos, particularly in active breaking weather threads, please link to clickable photos to minimise download issues. For more information, see Posting Photo Guidelines for more information. Threads that are six weeks old or older will be Archived Here
Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 2139
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:47 am

Not a lot to work with, but we need new dates, and WATL thinks something is up towards the weekend...

Image
User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3405
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
Contact:

Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:12 am

EC and GFS have been trying to produce something. I’m not sure whether this nice weather atm is a good thing or bad. Tis probably better that people aren’t distracted from the epidemic. That said, maybe 14 days of non-stop awful rainy weather would keep everyone home :?
phunkster
Cumulus
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Oct 06, 2010 9:27 am
Location: Werribe (H) / Notting Hill (W)

Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:18 am

As much as I'd love some interesting weather, I feel like a large percentage of those out there ignoring the plea to stay home won't be troubled by anything inclement. Also agree with creating a thread in the lounge for general discussion on the current situation, I've noticed the same - normally level-headed people acting way out of character, understandable though...
snowfall
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:23 pm

Cool the past few days, generally around 14-15c maximum and 7-9c minimum, and mostly cloudy. That of course changes over the next few days. Enjoying the autumn colours starting to appear around the place. Would be nice to look forward to some decent rain, although nothing significant is appearing on the horizon. Hope everyone is coping OK with everything that’s going on.
User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3405
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
Contact:

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:10 am

Progs showing ok falls for the weekend, particularly east central through the northeast. Typically 5-20mm. Should be thundery, from late arvo into the evening on Sunday, followed by showers in a southerly stream. Quite warm now for the next few days.

Something big brewing for late next week. Too far out to be confident.
flyfisher
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 204
Joined: Wed Jul 18, 2012 1:39 pm
Location: Belgrave

Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:39 pm

I rarely say this, but having my roof replaced next week so I don't want rain. Late next week is fine. Of course the whole thing may not go ahead if we go into a lock down.
User avatar
Rivergirl
Admin/Moderator
Posts: 3660
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2009 6:04 pm
Location: Ferny Creek VIC
Contact:

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:47 pm

I have just set up a new topic - COVID-19 Discussion and Information in The Lounge. Please post any info, concerns or just discuss what is happening. Thanks Rivergirl
User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3405
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
Contact:

Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:05 am

Progs pretty jumpy for the weekend and not agreeing. Looks like mostly a southwest coast, east central and northeast event. Thundery late on Sunday and showery into Monday. Still need another event in most southern areas to reach the monthly average (except around Melbourne which is doing well). Northern areas mostly passed the average already.

Is starting to dry out a bit up here. Still looks good for mid/late March but not the soggy lush green of a couple of weeks back.
User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3405
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
Contact:

Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:14 am

GFS andCMC looking ok for tomorrow. UK and EC not so keen. Still need about 5mm to get to our monthly average here, so may or may not get there. Shame after such a epic start.

Looks like a weak showery/ thundery band timed to move through central around middle of the day. Showers and cooler Monday morning, particularly the south.
Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 2139
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:43 pm

Sensing a bit of an upgrade for tomorrow through central in the 4.30pm BOM forecasts, backed up by the thunderstorm forecast:

Image

Not sure what the possible 'severe' feature is though. Heavy rainfall? (Yay!) Large hail? (Boo!) Damaging winds? (Boo!)
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 808
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:20 pm

Tas temps today: Hobart 27.1, Bushy Park 27.1, Strahan 25.8, Launceston 25.1, St Helens 21.4, Devonport 21.1
User avatar
Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
Posts: 2614
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:05 pm
Location: FTG
Contact:

Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:40 pm

weather,,,
forgotten there was such a thing..
lets hope its a Good Distraction,,
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 808
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:46 am

Thursday to Sunday looking quite wet for Tasmania and parts of Victoria on latest model runs
SC.
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 342
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 5:57 pm
Location: Notting Hill
Contact:

Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:20 am

Wow, wasn't expecting that much of an upgrade.
Matt

http://vintagemoviepostersforum.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1596
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:21 am

Perhaps 5mm today.

Looks like a substantial cold front late in the week. Next weekend will be cold with probably some snow flurries on the Alps.
Dane
Supercell
Posts: 1472
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:36 pm

Some Heavy Rain and a few rumbles here in the last 20 minutes. Just over 7mm's so far.
Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 2139
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:45 pm

Nice! Just starting here, preceded by one very long roll of thunder... and another just now.
Wilko
Supercell
Posts: 1175
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Highett, Vic

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:51 pm

Gee that is one mean looking storm heading towards Cape Liptrap and the Prom :)
Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 2139
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:49 pm

Ended up with 6mm, which puts us just ahead of our March average - happy with that.

Nothing substantial storm-wise, just thunder and a burst of heavy-ish rain.
User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3405
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
Contact:

Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:32 pm

Took a while to get going but cracker of a storm in the end. Fast moving so didn’t last long but a peak rain rate of 100mm/hr and quite a few big rumbles and one flash-boom. Just shy of 8mm and still showery. Need about 1mm more to the March average so should get there now.

Been a bit slow with posts... really busy with work, but also spare time taken up with the obvious :( keep hoping for some good news.

EDIT> Just cracked 10mm so passes the monthly average. Just shy of 100mm MTD. Might crack the ton with some showers tomorrow morning.
Post Reply