Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020

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Skywalker
Supercell
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Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:23 am

Going to go by the St Albans total for home considering we virtually border it & the amount of water on our roads. The gauge also overflowed, plus my backyard was flooded near our deck. :o
Simply amazing 24 hours.

Currently have drizzle falling here at work. Looks like the smoke has played havoc with the Laverton radar as this normally shows up on it, which it isn't.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Dane
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Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:06 am

Just too far West to get the best of it yesterday had 4.9mm's in the 24 hours to 9am. 7.0mm's at the Airport.
MTD now 19.7mm's - Airport 20.6mm's - Monthly average 39mm's
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hillybilly
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Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:06 pm

Fog and drizzle has cleared back home. Ended on 25mm so more than I expected coming in to yesterday. MTD about 1mm off our average so tracking very well.

Day or two of not much ahead of a warm/hot and unstable weekend. Bit hard to pick the details, but showers/storms tending to rain across Sat/Sun/Mon/Tue/Wed and Thur. Most should see at least 20mm more over this period, and many more likely 50mm.
Adam38
Cumulonimbus
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Location: Bacchus Marsh

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:09 pm

Only 8mm for here yesterday so I really missed out compared to other areas immediately around town, but the thunder and lightning was fantastic!!. Am i right in thinking that the weekends weather will be coming in from the east? I normally do very well rainfall wise with anything coming from the se to the ne.
Gordon
Supercell
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Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:54 pm

Well I managed to miss all the action at home, but watched some spectacular storms from down on the Mornington Peninsula.

Got home to find 21mm in the gauge; so far, so good :).
flyfisher
Cumulonimbus
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Location: Belgrave

Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:54 pm

NE Vic and East Gippsland just keep missing out. Today's storms over the boarder in NSW. We need it to rain in eastern Victoria to deal with those fires - normally this area is one of the wetter spots.
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Onetahuti
Supercell
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Location: Dandenong Nth.

Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:56 pm

Max yesterday of 37.8°C with 24.2 mm of rain to 9AM this morning. Happy to have the tanks overflowing.
QldTwister
Cumulonimbus
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Location: Ashwood Vic

Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:59 pm

Yep NE, NW Vic and East gippy keep missing out and the next few days dont hold much though NE might do ok from stroms ad upslope on Sun Mon

Sun Mon look wet for many and Wed night into thurs
Bring on the heat and stroms
Lucia
Cumulus
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Location: Lilydale

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:02 pm

22mls for us and 60mls MTD .... very happy to be in the middle of January and receive this, looking forward to the next bout, summer is so much more enjoyable with these temperatures in the 20's :) :) :) :) :)
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hillybilly
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Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:15 am

Foggy cool morning here in the Nongs. Not a lot today, with showers coming in from the southeast so will mainly be the Otways, Gippsland hills and west central ranges.

Trough deepens through the weekend. Saturday sees pretty sparse activity, with Sunday looking very good for more big wet storms. A classic storm day looking at the latest model runs.
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Didjman
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Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:20 am

On Access G, Monday is looking wet and windy at this stage
snowfall
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:05 am

A few light showers and drizzle overnight here, but these only amounted to 0.4mm. Nice and cool though - got down to 8.5c overnight. MTD is 86mm, which is above average and a very different picture to last January.
Jake Smethurst
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Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:14 pm

Managed 24.6mm from the storms the other day. Was kept absolutely flat out at work from about 4pm-9pm because of the storms, was crazy!

Very interesting period on the way as analysed so well by our members here :) Weekend looks stormy in general, particularly Sunday with locally heavy falls in thunderstorms that develop. Models keen on activity through the Melbourne area both days, but especially on Sunday. And then of course Monday will be all about positioning of the low. Majority of models indicating good falls across the Melbourne region, the only outlier is GFS which tends to keep most of the rain to the east. Love these setups, fascinating trying to put it all together forecast-wise! :P

Change also later Wednesday or Thursday bringing another band of rain at this stage.
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Gordon
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Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:24 pm

Surprised at how quite heavy drizzle has set in after a fine start - usually it's the other away around here; might crack another mm or two before the real rain (hopefully) returns later in the weekend.

A day to light the fire again with 7C overnight and just 13C now.
snowfall
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:22 pm

Obviously a lot can change in the course of a month, but so far I am struck by how different this January has been compared to last year. We’re currently tracking below average for maximum and minimum temps, and above average for rain.

Last January, the average maximum temp was 29.9c. We had only one day all month when the maximum temp was below 20c, which was 19.6c on the 5th Jan. There was just one night when the temp dropped below 10c, which was 8.1c on the 10th. We recorded just 20mm for the month, which almost all came near the end of the month (17mm on the 30th), and had 8 days above 35c.

This January so far, the average maximum temp is 24.7c. We have had 6 days when the maximum temp was below 20c, with the lowest being 12.6c on the 5th. We’ve had 7 nights below 10c so far, with the lowest being 7.2c on the 1st. And 86mm of rain MTD across 8 rain days, and only 2 days so far above 35c (35.2c on the 15th and 36.0c on the 3rd).

Quite a pattern change, at least to this point, compared to 2019 and also 2018 for that matter.
Gordon
Supercell
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Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:16 pm

Just comparing yesterday's BOM forecast chart for 10pm Monday...

Image

With today's forecast chart for 10pm Monday...

Image

I'm struck by how little change there is compared to wildly varying computer models (some of which simply have the low in the south Tasman) with BOM going for a low centre near north central Vic border on both charts. As Jake says, interesting to watch this unfold.
Wilko
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Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:55 pm

All models in agreement for widespread falls next week.
4 day synoptic looking good with the position of low
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hillybilly
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Sat Jan 18, 2020 6:09 am

First day of round two for this system. The upper trough is building to our west and the surface trough is deepening and moving west. It will become unstable across all eastern areas and instability will edge into central and north central. Currently looks like the shower/storms will make it about east of a line from Euroa to Coldstream. Could almost make it into the eastern parts of Melbourne but thinking a near miss. Also a chance around Macedon etc. Hope the area around Bright can score today with that one fire still causing real issues. They have missed the last three events which is really bad lucky for them.

More general tomorrow, and indeed looks like a cracker of a storm day. Rainy day into Monday.

Bit hard to pick the heavy rain/ light rain edge. EC, UK, ICON have heavy falls well into the west of the state. GFS and CMC tending to stop them somewhere not far from Melbourne. Totals here in the Nongs vary from about 15mm to about 60mm for the next four days depending on which model you pick. I’m thinking about 40mm is a pretty good chance, then a stormy rainband late on Wednesday into Thursday to close out the sequence.
stevco123
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Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Sat Jan 18, 2020 8:01 am

I think the forecast sounds more dramatic than what it actually is. All I'm really seeing is fine and sunny mornings with the chance of a shower or storm. Too much wiggling in the models to be certain and Melbourne once again it's borderline
Last edited by stevco123 on Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Location: Kangaroo Flat

Sat Jan 18, 2020 8:54 am

GFS pushes the rain to the East. But it's the outlier since all other forecast models have 30-50mm for here.

I don't see any hot weather in the next week or so either. Such a contrast from late January 2019 when we copped a shocker of a heatwave (ie. 47c).
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