Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

[StratoBendigo]

Extraordinary:


There's significant concern regarding Dinner Plain now that the wind change has arrived.

[Gordon]

Humidity rocketing up and temps plummeting though; Mt Hotham Airport just up the road is now 16C and 80% humidity. A good friend has a house a few km away so I am desperately hoping this may take a bit of the oomph out of the fire/ ember attacks.

Looks like the same more favourable weather is spreading across Gippsland: Omeo now 18C & 77%; Gelantipy 15C and 96%. The question is how this counteracts the issues brought about by the changes in wind direction.

Edit: Buller now 20C & 67%.

Edit: Hotham Airport now 99% humidity! Trend similar at many eastern/ alpine sites. Far north-east is still terrible but surprised the improvement elsewhere isn't getting much traction in mainstream media?

[Sean]

Humidity rocketing up and temps plummeting though; Mt Hotham Airport just up the road is now 16C and 80% humidity. A good friend has a house a few km away so I am desperately hoping this may take a bit of the oomph out of the fire/ ember attacks.

Looks like the same more favourable weather is spreading across Gippsland: Omeo now 18C & 77%; Gelantipy 15C and 96%. The question is how this counteracts the issues brought about by the changes in wind direction.

Edit: Buller now 20C & 67%.

Edit: Hotham Airport now 99% humidity! Trend similar at many eastern/ alpine sites. Far north-east is still terrible but surprised the improvement elsewhere isn't getting much traction in mainstream media?

Hopefully it helps. Problem is, it's so dry and remote out that way that the fires are still going to be unstoppable with even just moderate wind.

Absolutely huge plumes of moisture off the NW at the moment, hence the deluges in Indonesia. One decent trough or front and some drought and fire ravaged part of this country will find itself under water...

[Gordon]

Just heard from my mate near Hotham Airport - he left a while ago & has learnt he lost his house to ember attack; the change was about an hour too late for him . The fire map I was looking at was a couple of hours out of date (understandable with things changing so fast).

Not so his neighbour who stayed and successfully defended his house. We are hoping my friend's horses escaped to the east as it sounds like things have settled down a bit.

[Macedonian]

23C here for a max and humid with a bit of hill fog and even some spits of drizzle. Hard to believe it was near 30C at 6am. So lucky in central with the timing of the front, but just awful further north and east. Lots of records.

Perhaps most significant.
44.0C at Canberra broke the record of 42.8C from Acton in 1939.
48.9C at Penrith is a new Sydney metro record breaking the 47.8.C from 1939. It’s also the highest temperature in any metro area, passing the Roseworthy 48.3C from January 2019
Anticipate almost every elevated site in the southeast has set a new record. Some of the numbers are astonishing such as 38.0Cat Mt Boyce. Cabramurra went past 60C as the fire went through

Terrible fires out east and in NSW. Losses will be severe. So sad to see so many beautiful towns and places going through this.

Rain is looking better on the models. EC and UK both have 10-40mm for central and east. They are the best two models so fingers crossed. CMC and GFS have the heavier rain a touch further northeast, so central tending to get more like 5-10mm.

Substantial system for late next week with a strong front and tropical infeed.

I used to live at Blackheath (Mt Boyce) we used to get the vapors if it got to 28C in the early '90s. 38 would have been unimaginable.

Just dropped to 8C here at Mt Macedon.

[Macedonian]

Just heard from my mate near Hotham Airport - he left a while ago & has learnt he lost his house to ember attack; the change was about an hour too late for him . The fire map I was looking at was a couple of hours out of date (understandable with things changing so fast).

Not so his neighbour who stayed and successfully defended his house. We are hoping my friend's horses escaped to the east as it sounds like things have settled down a bit.

Sad news, Gordon. It is a big dilema, stay and risk death or leave and almost surely lose your property to ember attack.

[Sean]

Just heard from my mate near Hotham Airport - he left a while ago & has learnt he lost his house to ember attack; the change was about an hour too late for him . The fire map I was looking at was a couple of hours out of date (understandable with things changing so fast).

Not so his neighbour who stayed and successfully defended his house. We are hoping my friend's horses escaped to the east as it sounds like things have settled down a bit.

That's dreadful! At least he's safe.

Shocker of a day. The loss of houses, people, animals and temperate forest is devastating for the whole country in so many ways.

Hopefully rain douses the fires tomorrow.

[hillybilly]

Just heard from my mate near Hotham Airport - he left a while ago & has learnt he lost his house to ember attack; the change was about an hour too late for him . The fire map I was looking at was a couple of hours out of date (understandable with things changing so fast).

Not so his neighbour who stayed and successfully defended his house. We are hoping my friend's horses escaped to the east as it sounds like things have settled down a bit.

That’s awful Mate Spent a lot of time in that area as a younger fella and always through somewhere like Cobungra or Harrietville would be wonderful places to live with fantastic weather/climate. Frosts, snow, storms

Radar looking good and models holding. EC and UK which have been the most stable sticking with 10-40mm central and eastern areas next 72 hours. Geez I hope so. Also some rain through the northwest and west, but a bit patchy. Strong front for around Friday. Hopefully a double bang rain sequence. Tropics is getting very active and current upper trough arrangements will steer moisture our way, so just need the interactions.

[StratoBendigo]

Just started raining here. A good chance today might be our coldest January day in over a decade.

[hillybilly]

Raining quite heavily here now Big splatter drops. Hill fog also drifting across the tree tops, and down to 9C.

Anyone who complains today about the weather should be shot to the moon

[Macedonian]

Nice rain and a falling thermometer. Makes a very nice change.
6.2C here now.

[snowfall]

Sorry to hear about your friend's house Gordon - such a terrible thing to have to go through. Hopefully the rain will help to bring fires under control - it couldn't come faster enough.

Raining steadily here this morning. Can't remember the last time we had steady rain, but it's nice to see. Only 9c currently and 4.6mm so far.

[Didjman]

Nice rain and a falling thermometer. Makes a very nice change.
6.2C here now.

Currently 10.6c here. Hard to imagine that 2 days ago, it was approaching 30c at this time!

[hillybilly]

Closing in on 6mm here Better than all the model forecasts at this point in time. Pretty consistent 4-7mm in a band from around Macedon to the Dandenongs. Would love to crack 10mm before this part clears.

Second surge of showers and rain overnight as a second bit of uplift pushes through. That should be more productive, though how far southeast it pushes is a bit uncertain. EC, CMC and UK suggest all of central and east, but GFS tends to keep the good falls east of about the Nongs. Would usually back EC if there is a split. Could be locally 50mm if that model verifies

[Gordon]

Thanks for all the thoughts re my mate's place near Hotham. Some better news this morning with a property belonging to good friends near Khancoban safe, plus my brother's house up there. Phew!

Meanwhile 6mm and 8C here - hope some of that gets to the east asap!

[Macedonian]

Just dropped to 5.9C here now.
My kind of temp for January

[Onetahuti]

Ticked up to 5mm here with still a bit to come in this stage. Rain run-off into tank is clouded with the accumulation of dust since the last decent fall, do not often see that.

[Skywalker]

Just over 1mm here on the island. Obviously at the lower end of the scale but who cares, we'll take it.
Another burst to come later tonight, hopefully there's at least 50mm for the east. Ones got to hope anyway.

[Tassiedave]

Any chance of Melbourne breaking its record January low maximum?

[snowfall]

8.8mm here, which is very welcome. 10c and feeling quite cold (wind chill of 8c), especially after the heat of the past few weeks.