VIC - Near Stationary, sharpening LWT 26 Nov - 2 Dec

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Didjman
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Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:28 pm

A near stationary Long Wave Trough over SE Aust will sharpen later in the week driving a series of fronts over Vic / Tas. While keeping things relatively cool down south, our northerly neighbours may not fair as well. -ve SAM from the September SSW event rolls on
QldTwister
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Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:23 pm

Yeah it is looking cold and wintery booo
Likey to be the coldest first few days to summer and Dec for many years, if not on record for some parts of Tas and Vic :o :o :o :o :o :o
Real Sept like weather on the way true winter burst

Lots of Rain and Snow in Tas likely heavy snow in central Tas

Days of Showers, Local, Hail and Thunder strong and gusty winds while dry cool windy and dusty for inland areas

Severe to extreme fire dangers in NSW and Qld

This pattern just rolls on just crazy, look forward to this pattern breaking down espically for inland areas they need the rain so so so bad.

Enjoy tomorrow last nice day for just over a week
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Wed Nov 27, 2019 8:28 am

EC looks to be upgrading as this system gets closer. Latest runs have about 50mm on the Dandenongs which could well be more like 80mm locally when you take topographic enhancement etc into account. First strong front hits on Friday night with moderate to heavy falls east of about Bendigo to Melbourne. Could well be locally more than 30mm. Then almost daily fronts for a week.

The pressure is now getting very low for a swly to westerly system, likely to dip towards 995hPa near the coast for a couple of days around late Sunday or Monday to about Tuesday. That will throw up wild conditions on the coast with a substantial storm surge and big waves. Tides are very high so potential for significant inundation and erosion.

Handy system to start summer for the gardens etc, as it will top up those water tanks, soil moisture etc, but nasty north of the border. Latest SAM forecasts show this is tied to the exceptional break down of the polar vortex (SSW) and values in the next week could be among the lowest in years :o
stevco123
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:09 am

A 15 degree day in Melbourne on Sunday would make it the coldest start to summer on record. Interesting article i read this morning... Quite an extreme going from equal November high to potentially record cold
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
James
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:55 pm

very odd weather for the time of year...vegetable garden is about 2 months behind where it should be! things are just not growing because of the lack of sun and warmth.

its also very odd to not have had at least one summer thunderstorm here ( a proper one not just a one or two rumble wonder).

it became tradition in november in previous years that I'd have to go out and put protection over the vegetables/ seedlings etc as there were always severe thunderstorm warnings, to the point I'd often leave protection over the tomatos all the time..yet they still grew under the shadecloth....not this year...nothing is growing!!

When will "normal" conditions return and the usual summer storms type weather come back?...its been a long time!
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:49 pm

Earth Quake Dandenong 2.18pm
2.1
weathergasm
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:36 pm

James wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:55 pm
When will "normal" conditions return and the usual summer storms type weather come back?...its been a long time!
Despite Melbourne’s distance from areas directly affected by the northern monsoon, a lot of our widespread summer storm outbreaks are attributable to that moisture being advected from tropical areas. At present, the moisture just isn’t there - the monsoon trough hasn’t even entered the Southern Hemisphere yet, and is much later than usual. I suspect it’ll be a longer wait than usual for a worthwhile storm this season. Models point to the present positive Indian Ocean Dipole breaking down significantly in January/February, so I’m guessing we may have to wait until then.

We are also under the influence of a negative Southern Annual Mode, which in combination with the positive IOD reinforces the likelihood of the precipitation we do get being cold, showery and frontal in nature, as opposed to warm, stormy and ‘troughy’.

That said, it really is an odds game. Melbourne has got some pretty spectacular storms during otherwise unfavourable conditions climate driver wise, but short term signs aren’t looking good for significant convection.
Last edited by weathergasm on Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
James
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:43 pm

Hmm i thought there was an earthquake, i didnt feel anything but certainly heard a sound like an explosion / thunder rumble that was not "normal" and it reminded me of other times i had heard it and turned out to be an earthquake..interesting
StratoBendigo
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:54 pm

James wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:43 pm
Hmm i thought there was an earthquake, i didnt feel anything but certainly heard a sound like an explosion / thunder rumble that was not "normal" and it reminded me of other times i had heard it and turned out to be an earthquake..interesting
Magnitude 2.1 centered between Rowville and Ferntree Gully. 11km depth.

There was also a couple of quakes M2.7, M.2.4 near Mt Beauty this morning too.
WeatherViewer
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 4:37 pm

Who remembers the November of 2017? I loved it!

Warm moist Tropical Warmth for days on end with bubbling clouds. Who would have thought it's the exact same city this year :P
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Didjman
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 4:56 pm

WeatherViewer wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 4:37 pm
Who remembers the November of 2017? I loved it!

Warm moist Tropical Warmth for days on end with bubbling clouds. Who would have thought it's the exact same city this year :P
Thats when the "Mallee Monster"came down from around Ouyen down to Melbourne smashing everything in its path'. I still have some awesome sound recordings and pics of that storm.
StratoBendigo
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:00 pm

WeatherViewer wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 4:37 pm
Who remembers the November of 2017? I loved it!

Warm moist Tropical Warmth for days on end with bubbling clouds. Who would have thought it's the exact same city this year :P
Oh do I ever. Especially the grand finale supercell onslaught at the end of that month. Among the nastiest weather I can ever recall.

But this year is a classic strong +ve IOD late spring/early summer. Wild swings between furnace NWlys and snow-bearing SWlys. A bit like 2006.
WeatherViewer
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:19 pm

May I also add, whilst I'm not fan of oppressive heat and the lack of rain... To make up for this November, I wouldn't mind the beautiful warmth of the recent March of 2017, that was a lovely Indian summer that year!
I'm sure you fella's inland might be cringing, but down in Melbourne it was lovely and I remember it quite vividly! The summer that rolled on 8-) Hopefully the March of 2020 might deliver something similar!

It is interesting how remarkably warm both March & November were in 2017, can anyone shed any more information as to what was going on that year climatically/atmospheric speaking?

Stats below:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/m ... urne.shtml
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hillybilly
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 6:56 pm

James wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:55 pm
very odd weather for the time of year...vegetable garden is about 2 months behind where it should be! things are just not growing because of the lack of sun and warmth.

its also very odd to not have had at least one summer thunderstorm here ( a proper one not just a one or two rumble wonder).

it became tradition in november in previous years that I'd have to go out and put protection over the vegetables/ seedlings etc as there were always severe thunderstorm warnings, to the point I'd often leave protection over the tomatos all the time..yet they still grew under the shadecloth....not this year...nothing is growing!!

When will "normal" conditions return and the usual summer storms type weather come back?...its been a long time!
This is actually pretty normal, and you have got used to abnormal ;) The last six springs have been exceptionally warm. Given so much of OZ is so hot and dry, I fear our turn will come :(

Back to the thread, does look like a doozie. Good general rain event, with most southern areas likely to see 20-40mm, and north 5-20mm. Should crack 50mm in the usual wet spots. Hopefully we can put a dampener on those fires in the eastern ranges. Significant wave and surge event on the coast. Be good to get some photos if people are out.

Could be a decent snowfall in the alps, though unfortunately the best will be on Monday which rules out a snow case as work calls ;)

Btw those fires west of Sydney in the catchments don’t look good :o
Tassiedave
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:05 pm

Tas temps today: Launceston 22.2, Cressy 21.7, Hobart 21.1, Wynyard 20.7, Friendly Beaches 20.5. Also in the 24 hours to 9 am today Mt Read on the West Coast had 83mm.
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Rivergirl
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:44 pm

:happybirthday: Happy birthday to hillybilly and thank you for all your posts :happybirthday:
QldTwister
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:16 pm

Yeah looking like a solid 4 days of Winter Saturday to Tuesday night just crazy and getting over it.

Though im sure Jan to Apr will be hot and dry making up for it

Everything running 4 to 6 weeks behind this year

Showers, local hail and thunder, gales, heavy snow more like early Sept than Dec.

Heavy falls in Gippy and around Mount Donna prob another 100mm there in the coming week

No heat in sight for the south but long hot week ahead for Qld.

Crazy winds in Nsw on Mon fires will go nuts

Wild week ahead glad i enjoyed yesterday that was just magic
Bring on the heat and stroms
Sean
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Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:24 pm

Hanging out for a good storm. Pretty much missed all the previous activity so far this spring.

Last thing we need is a delay in the bloody monsoon, that's for sure. That was part of the reason last summer was so terrible. Over this crap now.

2011-2012 is a foggy memory these days to a point where I wonder if it ever happened... :|
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hillybilly
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Fri Nov 29, 2019 6:04 am

Nice morning, but showers develop today as the day goes on. There is a decent shot of tropical moisture with this system, though the best of it looks like passing over the northeast missing Melbourne to the near northeast. Will be quite unstable, so potential for the odd rumble.

Rain totals for the first part have dropped a bit with mostly 2-10mm, but more like 10-25mm for the areas around Baw Baw, Upper Yarra etc. The rain band tends to stall a bit so a slight move north or south could see totals vary a lot.
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Didjman
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Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:57 am

On the 2300z Melb Airport sounding, the storm potential is there, if we get more moisture through middle levels
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