Victoria - Hot blast ahead of a milder change - 18th Nov to 21 Nov 2019

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Jake Smethurst
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Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:19 pm

Just kicking this thread off for the upcoming hotter weather.

Modelling has been firm for a number of days regarding a vast area of heat extending eastwards across the continent and into the southeast of Australia next week, including Victoria. Fortunately it does appear that Victoria will only observe up to two days of the highest temperatures (unfortunately NSW isn't so lucky).

After a warm Monday across the state, Tuesday is likely to see the NW region reach into the mid to high 30's while remaining parts of Victoria stay mild to warm with temps hovering around the low to mid 20's and influenced by seabreezes.

The heat begins to extend across the state on Wednesday with temps in the range of 40 degrees or higher likely in the NW. Western districts likely to see mid to high 30's while central areas (including Melbourne) will likely hover around the high 20's to low 30's. Gippsland districts likely to be spared with comfortable conditions in the 20's.

Thursday is firming to be the critical fire danger day thanks to the arrival of a milder change. Timing is obviously important and will reflect how hot conditions get across the state. GFS and EC bring the change into central parts during the late morning, sparing the worst of the heat for western and central districts, while the German model and ACCESS delay it's arrival until later in the afternoon, therefore quite hot conditions would be expected. Despite timing, there is general consensus that winds will be quite gusty ahead of the system.

So a nice start to the week before hot conditions develop ahead of a milder change Thursday.
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Adam38
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Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:06 pm

It is certainly cooking over in WA, my parents live in the outer NE suburbs of Perth and their temps for the last 3 days have been 39 for Thursday & Friday, and hit 42.2c today... they also had a 40c day last week.... Incredible for November.
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hillybilly
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Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:59 pm

Adam38 wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:06 pm
It is certainly cooking over in WA, my parents live in the outer NE suburbs of Perth and their temps for the last 3 days have been 39 for Thursday & Friday, and hit 42.2c today... they also had a 40c day last week.... Incredible for November.
Reach 43.1C in the northern suburbs of Perth at Pearce. That’s nearly 2C above the previous November record, and it’s only mid month. That’s not good :(

Timing on the front on Wednesday will decide whether we see records in Vic. The northwest records are very tough after the awful heatwave a few years back, but further south the records are pretty soft given the new normal :?

ATM looks like melbourne will see the hottest air overnight Wednesday into Thursday so likely top out in the mid 30s. If the front speeds up, will be more like 40C.
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hillybilly
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Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:16 am

The wind change is slowing down on Thursday, so now looking more like middle of the day. Makes Wednesday cooler - mostly low to mid 30s but Thursday hotter. Northwest will be very hot on Wednesday with low 40s.

Nasty winds showing up on Thursday with the heat. EC is showing gusts above 100km/hr. Humidity doesn’t look to bad, fortunately. Lucky we have had decent rain as it does not look like a good fire weather day :( Dry spots further north east will be an issue :( I do wonder if there could be quite a dust storm give the intense dry to our north.
Tassiedave
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Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:37 pm

Today's temps in Tas: Launceston 20.4, Friendly Beaches 19.2, Cressy 19.1, Devonport 18.0, Hobart 17.8
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hillybilly
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Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:11 pm

EC is showing an increasingly nasty day for Thursday. Gust over 100km/hr with mid to high 30s for central and eastern areas. Humidity doesn’t look too bad in the south and east, but that combination of heat and winds is unusual. Lucky most areas are still green, though won’t last long. Might not verify. GFS has a much earlier front, and a cooler Thursday. Both give a very warm Wednesday night. Could well be record warm, though won’t get 9am to 9am records as Wednesday morning will start of cool to mild.

Could get the odd high based shower or storm with the wind change.
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hillybilly
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Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:15 pm

22C for the max here, so about 27C sea level equivalent. Tad cooler tomorrow with perhaps the odd spot of drizzle before a rapid warm up on Wednesday. Thursday’s front is slowing down further. EC has high 30s for Melbourne now. Getting uncomfortable close to November records in the west on Wednesday and central and east on Thursday :(
Tassiedave
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Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:26 pm

Temps in Tas today: Friendly Beaches 25.5, Fingal 22.7, Hobart 21.3, Cressy 21.3, Launceston 19.4, Devonport 18.0

HB what is the record maximum in Victoria for November?
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hillybilly
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Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:00 am

Tassiedave wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:26 pm
Temps in Tas today: Friendly Beaches 25.5, Fingal 22.7, Hobart 21.3, Cressy 21.3, Launceston 19.4, Devonport 18.0

HB what is the record maximum in Victoria for November?
45.8 back in the shocking 2012 heatwave. That event broke the old state record by 1.5C.

EC getting later on the front. Looks like about 3-4pm on Thursday. The swly change looks like a shocker with wind gusts topping 100km/hr :?

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/e ... =11&day=17
StratoBendigo
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Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:14 am

The two stand-out heatwaves for us in November are 1997 (40.3c), and 2009 (a string of mid to high-30c days for much of that month).

OCF ensemble is suggesting 39.6c on Thursday, so it'll be a short-lived but punchy blast of heat. It's the gale force winds that worry me....
wolfcat
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Tue Nov 19, 2019 4:31 pm

4:20pm BoM Forecast is now 39c for Melbourne on Thursday
Macca2395
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Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:23 pm

The wind on Thursday looks a tad concerning. :?

Still green around these parts, but the next couple of days look like taking care of that!
Tassiedave
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Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:13 pm

Tas temps today: Launceston 24.2, Cressy 23.0, Scottsdale 21.7, Wynyard 21.5, Fingal 21.2, Hobart 18.8
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hillybilly
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Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:04 pm

wolfcat wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 4:31 pm
4:20pm BoM Forecast is now 39c for Melbourne on Thursday
Looks horrible. Melbourne's "earliest" 40C is 26 November 1997. That has got to be at some risk.

EC has convection on the change with lighting in northcentral and southcentral so suspect cloud will be a bit of a factor. The change when it moves through has gusts past 100km/hr on the bay and elevated parts.

The day would be an awful one for mid January. For mid November it's a shocker, and possibly without a match :?
stevco123
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Wed Nov 20, 2019 9:50 am

At least tomorrow's minimum will be around 14 degrees - the temperature that it was at 9:01am this morning. So won't go down as record breaking, officially at least.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Macca2395
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Wed Nov 20, 2019 10:20 am

Fire danger rating has been updated to extreme for the Mallee and Northern Country tomorrow.

Beautiful morning up here.. summer has arrived! :D
wolfcat
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Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:54 pm

These are the conditions that parts of Victoria will get tomorrow... YIKES.

4c above forecast, still 4+ hours of heating to go, 80kph winds and a fire danger rating through the roof.

Image
stevco123
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Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:03 pm

Getting warm in South Australia. Currently 45 in Nullarbor.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
StratoBendigo
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Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:31 pm

Yeah, not good in SA. They've deliberately turned off the power grid around Port Lincoln today as well... Gusting now to 85 km/h there. Nullabor up to 45.8c. Nov record for SA is 47.9 at Tarcoola on 30th Nov 1993.
Adam38
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Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:39 pm

November record broken at Nullarbor 46.6c with a -23.6 dp...
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