VIC: Cool with more southwesterlies - November 12-17 2019

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hillybilly
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:12 pm

Looks like the negative SAM will continue to influence us with westerlies more typical of winter, bringing showers in the south and cool conditions. The airmass will get colder enough for more snow in the alps, though looks lighter than last week.

Not much in the north, but perhaps the odd shower.
Tassiedave
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Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:47 pm

Max temps in Tas today: Hobart 26.2, Dennes Point 24.6, Friendly Beaches 24.5, Fingal 22.9, Cressy 18.4, Launceston 17.5
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hillybilly
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Tue Nov 12, 2019 6:28 am

Heavy drizzle and fog this morning. 4mm in the gauge, And currently falling at 5-10mm/hr. Don’t expect it to last long, but a nice way to welcome the day. We’ve just cracked 119mm MTD which puts us 0.2mm above our long term average. That means we’ve had above average in May, June, July, August, September and November. Shame about October. This type of run is pretty much out of my experience in living here for 20 years... but drive a couple hours north of here and almost every month has been below average :o Nearly all the rain has been showery coastal stuff.

Looks like the odd shower and wind will be the feature of the week ahead. Stubborn swly flow dominating. Won’t be much for most, but likely to add up in the usual wet spots.

One photo this morning and the temperature trace. Horribly dry airmass went through overnight. Dewpoints that low are extremely rare up here, and would be just about unprecedented in spring. The record/near record IOD and sudden stratospheric warming has desiccated Australia to a point which is really worrying. If it stops raining things will dry out very quick :?

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Tassiedave
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Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:00 am

Models indicating - although still a long way out - that next Thursday 21/11 the hot air finally makes its way into Victoria
boxingkoala
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Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:04 pm

would like a little bit more heat into tassie also. past two weeks have been the opposite to up north. Tho will happily take this wintery weather than the bushfire (having had that earlier this year)
Macca2395
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Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:22 pm

Starting to look pretty nasty up in NSW..🙁

Can’t believe the weather contrast going on at the moment. It seems as if the whole country is on fire.. except Victoria!
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hillybilly
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Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:15 pm

Macca2395 wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:22 pm
Starting to look pretty nasty up in NSW..🙁

Can’t believe the weather contrast going on at the moment. It seems as if the whole country is on fire.. except Victoria!
Terrible situation and no real signs of rain in the next 10 days :( Some areas have now had fires for more than 11 weeks.

Down here we've had quite a wintery day. Max of 12.3C with 3mm more in the gauge. Got two heavy hail showers, the second one a real cracker. 8.4mm all up for this little event.The clouds have looked quite thundery, so wouldn't be surprised if there has been the odd rumble about.
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hillybilly
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Tue Nov 12, 2019 6:23 pm

Looks to be snowing at Lake MT ATM with a cm or two on the ground. Likely a mix of snow, hail and graupel.
Tassiedave
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Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:52 pm

Wowsers - I wonder how long before the media picks up on what's ahead on 20/11 - 22/11 in NSW according to latest models - Thursday in particular looks a big step up from today which was bad enough.
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hillybilly
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Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:05 pm

Tassiedave wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:52 pm
Wowsers - I wonder how long before the media picks up on what's ahead on 20/11 - 22/11 in NSW according to latest models - Thursday in particular looks a big step up from today which was bad enough.
I’ve noticed EC has 36C here next Wednesday, or about 40C in Melbourne city. Too far out to read too much into the details, but Progs rarely get heat wrong. Question is how hot, and whether it peaks on Wednesday or Thursday.

NSW needs widespread rain. Until that happens every front down here will be fire weather to our north :(

Btw got another cracking coldie. Best missed to our south, but deluge of small hail. Makes for four hail showers today and total of 9mm for the event.
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hillybilly
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Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:07 am

Dipped to 4.1C here this morning. Fires on, as it feels rather wintery :D

Showers looking like mainly hugging the coast today. Should spread inland a bit, but this is now starting to focus on the Otways and South Gippsland.

EC still holding a big change for next week. Latest run has 42-44C for the Mallee next Wednesday :o
Gordon
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Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:47 am

More snow on Buller, Baw Baw and Lake Mountain overnight - it won't give up!
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Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:31 am

Chilly here today with a temp of 13 degrees but a windchill factor of just 7 degrees!

Most models indicating the hotter weather returning next week, a huge area of heat extending southeastwards.
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Tassiedave
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Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:15 pm

Rainfall in Tas since 9am: Mt Read 52mm, Cradle Valley 36mm, Lake Margaret 25mm, Moogara 12mm, Hobart 3.6mm, Triabunna 1.2mm
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hillybilly
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Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:54 pm

Dull spring day here with a late burst of showers and then hill fog. 1.2mm in the gauge. Tomorrow looks quiet and mild, then more showers for late Friday into Saturday. Mostly coastal again.

Progs showing so much inland heat, it feels like summer is gonna eventually hit with a bang 8-) EC has low 40s spreading into the Mallee about this time next week.
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hillybilly
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Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:05 am

Thick fog and drizzle this morning. 2.4mm in the gauge. Happy to keep getting these light falls. Looks like similar weather on and off til Sunday.

Wednesday next week is looking very hot, in contrast.850Ts peaking around 26C over Victoria. Would tend to suggest around 42-44C in the Mallee and 40 to high/mid 30s further south. Current timing on the front suggests that Melbourne and east will see the hottest air very late so might avoid what would be a potential run at a record :?
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Didjman
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Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:12 am

hillybilly wrote:
Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:05 am
Wednesday next week is looking very hot, in contrast.850Ts around 26C over Victoria. Would tend to suggest around 44C in the Mallee and low 40s to high 30s further south.
With strong Northerly winds - expect TFBs IMHO!
Gordon
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Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:30 am

Limping towards our monthly average with another 2mm of drizzly showers overnight - 8mm to go. The cold is relentless with maximums running about 3.5C below average. The wood heater is going non-stop. Looking to the north though, I guess it's better than the alternative!

Hard to believe that we're likely to see warm weather in less than a week - it'll be interesting to see if we can crack 30C for the first time since the start of March. Currently, the BOM forecast for Ballarat is for a max of 29C next Wednesday, and we usually run a couple of degrees cooler.
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hillybilly
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Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:44 pm

Gordon wrote:
Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:30 am
Limping towards our monthly average with another 2mm of drizzly showers overnight - 8mm to go. The cold is relentless with maximums running about 3.5C below average. The wood heater is going non-stop. Looking to the north though, I guess it's better than the alternative!

Hard to believe that we're likely to see warm weather in less than a week - it'll be interesting to see if we can crack 30C for the first time since the start of March. Currently, the BOM forecast for Ballarat is for a max of 29C next Wednesday, and we usually run a couple of degrees cooler.
Yep, we’ve been burning those branches in the fire as quickly as they fall. The days haven’t been too bad here with good solar gain for the house, but once the sun goes down you feel the chill.

Max of 17C today with another 0.2mm of drizzle. Looks like a couple more mms tomorrow.

That heat up north is relentless and extreme. 47.1C in northwest WA today which is just 0.2C short of an early season record. Perth headed for four days above 35C. It’s wierd (but nice) that we are in a little green and cool bubble atm, in a continent headed for one of its hottest driest years on record :?
Tassiedave
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Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:23 pm

Temps in Tas today: Friendly Beaches 24.5, Fingal 22.6, Cressy 21.4, Hobart 19.9, Launceston 19.3, Devonport 18.6, Strahan 12.5
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