VIC - Becoming cold, wet and windy with a series of fronts: November 6-11 2019

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hillybilly
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Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:08 am

Decent wintery spell coming up with a deep low to our south throwing a sequence of strong fronts across southeast Australia. First one during the arvo on Wednesday and then one each day til Sunday. Will be very windy about the coast and ranges, snow will pile up in the alps, and rain totals will be significant in the south. Progs are showing locally 50-100mm in the usual wet spots (South Gippsland, Yarra Ranges and Otways). Anticipate a decent storm surge about the coast with a long spell of westerlies pushing water onto the coast.
QldTwister
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Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:18 pm

Yep Burst of winter on the way, pattern is like Aug atm not Nov so more Fires and Dust for inland and East Aus.

37mm here last event, likely another 20-30mm next 4 days wet Novembers continue.

Looking like a cold wet and windy pattern, its going to be a wild few days Thurs, Fri, Sat especially.
Bring on the heat and stroms
Sean
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Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:14 pm

Gotta love November. Looks like a very interesting week ahead, with wintry temps then summery temps and some good showers along the way.

Making up for a boring, dry October :)
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hillybilly
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Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:11 pm

Mild uneventful day here in the Dandenongs with showers passing to our south. First front is looking more like a coastal scraper, so have to wait til the second tomorrow to get proper showers. It still looks very productive, but takes a bit longer to get started then clear.

Progs suggesting about 50mm is likely here, with particularly wintry days Friday and Saturday.
Tassiedave
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Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:18 pm

Tas rain since 9am: Ouse 16mm, Derwent Bridge 12mm, Wynyard 8.6mm, Deloraine 7mm, Tea Tree 6.4mm, Launceston 3.6mm, Hobart 1mm
Snow in Tassie to 700m tomorrow and 500m Friday.
Gordon
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Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:34 am

Good cover of snow on Buller cams this morning. It'll be interesting to see the accumulation by Sunday.
Tassiedave
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Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:14 pm

Widespread Snow in Tasmania. Solid falls jn the Great Lake area and Cradle Mountain
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hillybilly
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Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:12 pm

Took a while for this system to get going but has been chucking it down this arvo. 18mm so far, and the radar looks like a lot more to come.

Was really thinking this as likely to produce flooding locally in the Nongs, but could get there if this keeps up (BoM have a warning for parts of central :o ).
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Didjman
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Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:24 pm

Flooding? 0.00mm here lol
QldTwister
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Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:48 pm

3mm here struggling to set in but east and south of here really set in and coming down image below shows it well.

Huge band of rain over S Vic but not massive falls yet, but just keeps adding up.
Dandys and Gippy going to get 20-40mm with isol 50mm from this with 2 more very wet days to come.

Send the rain to North Vic and Nsw

Cold wet and wind 48 hours to come in South Vic

More front nexts week winter pattern just keeps going.
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Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:10 pm

Torrential burst just pushed us over 27mm here. That puts our MTD to date at 90mm. About 30mm to get to the monthly average. Looks like another 10-20mm to come tonight looking at the radar and EC meteogram, so should push close to the average by tomorrow morning :D

The SAM has dived into strongly negative territory as the strong sudden stratospheric warming reaches the surface. This is the kind of weather that was once common, but has become less so as positive SAM has increasingly dominated our weather. Wierd times indeed, and particularly that we have a very strong positive IOD :? Meanwhile, to our north a couple of dangerous fire weatherdays unfolding, while Perth could well get a November record high on the weekend :?
StratoBendigo
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Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:15 pm

Relentless wind here. Gusting to 40 kts. No rain yet.
Lucia
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Location: Lilydale

Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:41 pm

25mls here at Lilydale, wish you were all getting it, seems quite unfair, but it is what it is, this strange weather pattern.
Tassiedave
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Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:53 pm

Rain in Tas since 9am: Cradle Valley 30mm, Misery Plateau 28mm, Moogara 24mm, Miena 18mm, Hobart 7.4mm, Mt Barrow 3.8mm
Tassiedave
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Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:02 pm

Tas Temps today: Friendly Beaches 16.8, St Helens 14.9, Launceston 14.6, Wynyard 14.5, Hobart 12.7, Liawenee 3.1, Mt Wellington -0.5
stevco123
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Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:06 pm

November is historically the wettest part of the year for this side of Australia so it doesn't surprise me, but the temperatures are certainly more july-ish. 40mm so far this month
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Macedonian
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Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:39 pm

Pouring here atm. 9mm since midnight and 7C now.
Hope it rains all weekend.
Sean
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Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:46 pm

Some good rain, but the coastal edges of port phillip aren't faring too well for some reason. Only about 5mm here. Seems to be comprised of trailing streams rather than a big rainy patch as depicted by the radar
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hillybilly
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Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:47 am

33mm in the gauge this morning. Currently 6C with the odd shower. Very hit and miss rainfall with close to 50mm in parts of west Gippsland through the Upper Yarra, but near zero north of the divide. Was picked by the models, but reinforces the haves and have-nots pattern :?

The next front in the sequence looks to be near Mt Gambier which will introduce increasing showers as the day goes on. Currently looks like it is snowing to about 1600m but this drops steadily as the day goes on. Looks like Macedon is a chance later, though the Nongs will probably be a degree or two too warm.
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Didjman
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Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:04 am

5.8mm in Wallan so far for the thread - 2.8mm yesterday.
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