Vic Trough/Front Nov 2-4 2019

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BERVY
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Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:08 pm

Forecasts looking good for a decent drop up here in NE Vic on Saturday. The raincast on BSCH has the most falling slightly east of here in the NSW/VIC high country but I hope it wiggles its way West a bit in the in the coming runs.
Really hope it’s steady rain over a longer period rather than storm dumps which mostly end up in the rivers before soaking in. Fingers crossed.
Gordon
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Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:23 pm

This morning's WATL forecast rainfall for 2-5/11 puts Wodonga almost bang in the centre of the '25-50mm' blob, so you might do alright!

At this early stage, looks like we're right on the edge of the decent rain; hoping we won't be watching it form up just to the east, which can be a bit of a theme in late spring/ summer here.
StratoBendigo
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Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:26 pm

It always seems to rain on Cup day weekend (sort of). Still not quite convinced we'll get much though.

Crazy diurnal temp ranges today. 4c to 29.5c here thus far. Mangalore going for the win with 1.8c to 29.1c. Not quite a patch on the 35c diurnal ranges that the Nullabor has had.
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Supercellimpact
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Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:02 pm

How good is it though, sleep with a blanket on, then enjoy a warm day.
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hillybilly
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Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:10 pm

EC pushing the rain southwest on the latest run and bumping it up. Looks very good for a statewide event Friday late and Saturday. Before that a hot few days with temperatures which will approach October records, but generally fall a couple of degrees short.

Rain starting to fall in inland Queensland which is the start of the event. Has taken a longtime to wet up the dry low levels, but is there now.
Tassiedave
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Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:45 pm

Tas temps today: Campania 28.2, Hobart 28.0, Friendly Beaches 27.0, Fingal 25.7, Launceston 19.9
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hillybilly
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Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:12 am

Apparently there was a trough and cool change last night, but didn’t make it up the hill. 18C here this morning. Airmass is seriously dry with a dewpoint near 0C. Those numbers are very rare for us up here in mid spring :?

Progs holding and generally getting better. Looks big for the northeast with falls potentially north of 100mm going by EC, GFS, UK on Saturday in Sunday. Cutoff for heavy rain looks to be about Geelong to Mildura. That’s often the cut off for the systems coming from the north, so wouldn’t be surprised if that’s more or less how it happens. Quite unstable, with thunderies late Friday west, and central and east Saturday and Sunday.
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Didjman
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Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:33 am

hillybilly wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:12 am
Apparently there was a trough and cool change last night, but didn’t make it up the hill. 18C here this morning.
I wonder if there is an inversion. At home (Wallan) it is 18c, while at Tulla it is 10.5C. Avalon is currently 10.3C
StratoBendigo
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Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:13 am

EC certainly raising some eyebrows with 35mm for here. 96mm predicted for Wangaratta, but just 11mm for Ballarat....
Adam38
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Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:03 pm

A lovely 29c and no wind!! Quite a wide variation of temperatures across the metro area.
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Didjman
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Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:24 pm

Latest sounding for Melbourne airport is out. We have heat, instability but no moisture 😭 A parcel of air will rise to 36000ft, but without moisture - no clouds
James
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Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:12 pm

whats it looking like for sunday? we need to move some things then so hoping it wont rain!
StratoBendigo
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Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:28 pm

James wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:12 pm
whats it looking like for sunday? we need to move some things then so hoping it wont rain!
Hard to say at this stage. Probably damp first thing in the morning, clearing in the middle of the day.
James
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Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:28 pm

hmm it looked like that before but now the forecast has upped the potential for rain on sunday
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Didjman
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Wed Oct 30, 2019 5:41 pm

On a current temperature note, at 1730 it was 25c at tulla airport and 33c here in Wallan!
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hillybilly
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Wed Oct 30, 2019 9:18 pm

Didjman wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2019 5:41 pm
On a current temperature note, at 1730 it was 25c at tulla airport and 33c here in Wallan!
Hot one here too. Reached 26C which is about 31C sea level equivalent. It was quite sweaty weather in the city with a stiff moist sea breeze.

Tomorrow looks stinking hot for October. Only a degree or two off the record :(

Weekend looking good, though not clear where the light to heavy divide will sit. EC and CMC have decent falls for most, heavy in the northeast. GFS has a bit of a miss for the middle half of Vic :(
QldTwister
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Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:07 pm

Prefect 2 days the last 2 days, mid to high 20s, light cooler winds and not a cloud in the sky just magic spent way to much time in the sun the last 2 days.

Hot 2 days coming then big rains in the NE wish, was over all of N Vic and happy to get nothing here, if they could all get 30-50mm.

Intresting 48 hours from Friday night till Sunday night.

Fronts and cooler next week after all the rain.
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:55 am

20C here already. Hot one ahead. Suspect a few records will fall. Melbourne’s record looks too high to match, with a 36.9C back in the the shocking double hump El Niño of 1914.

Progs holding, and tending to spread the rain around better. Looks like 20-30mm here for the weekend which will be mighty welcome. Northeast could see falls locally top 100mm.

The makings of this system sit in western Queensland where patchy but locally heavy falls have occurred.
StratoBendigo
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:44 am

Less than 2-3 days out and still massive divergence in the rainfall models. Everything from 7 to 70mm possible....
weathergasm
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Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:18 pm

When the models have this kind of divergence I tend to assume we’ll receive half of whatever the most conservative model says. That way I’m pleasantly surprised if I receive anything more👌
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