VIC - Becoming hot with a sharp cool change: October 22-27 2019

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hillybilly
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Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:09 pm

Dramatic sequence coming up with a very hot (for mid spring) air mass diving south the next two days with temperatures likely to spike into the mid to high 30s north and low 30s south by Thursday. Thursday night then looks like being exceptionally warm, ahead of a gusty change. It looks like both Thursday (maxima) and Thursday night (minima) could locally approach record highs for October. Thursday will be hot, dry and windy, so will dry things out quickly :(

Friday then brings a dramatic and gusty change with showers, potentially quite heavy in the south. It looks like by Saturday that it will be cold enough for snow in the alps.
Tassiedave
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Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:38 pm

Today's Temps: Fingal 25.0, Cressy 24.7, Wynyard 22.8, Launceston 22.3, Hobart 22.3
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hillybilly
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Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:19 am

Foggy start here for what will be the first warm one. Nice day :D

Not much change in the progs. Feature on Friday early will be wind with some nasty gusts showing up on EC.

38.2C yesterday in Darwin which is their second hottest day on record so no shortage of heat to our north :o
StratoBendigo
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Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:33 am

hillybilly wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:19 am
Foggy start here for what will be the first warm one. Nice day :D

Not much change in the progs. Feature on Friday early will be wind with some nasty gusts showing up on EC.

38.2C yesterday in Darwin which is their second hottest day on record so no shortage of heat to our north :o
Yep. Warmest Darwin day was in Oct 1982 when it got to 38.9c. The famous flash drought year. Currently 156 days without rain there which is almost a record. If it doesn't rain before the weekend, then the 1953 dry spell record will be exceeded.

Sunny here and meant to be 27c later today. It was only 3.8c this morning, so a big diurnal range.
Tassiedave
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Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:35 pm

Tas max temps today: Bushy Park 24.3, Campania 23.7, Liawenee 22.3, Hobart 21.0, Launceston 20.4, St Helens 16.8
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hillybilly
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Wed Oct 23, 2019 6:01 am

First warm to hot one today. Wierd start to the day with fog on the flats, while above is an intense inversion. Our temperature has been sat around 15C and our DP has dropped as low as -25C during the night. Just 300m below us the temperature is around 3C with fog :o Once that mixes the temp will jump quickly down low.

Thursday is looking a tad hotter on the latest runs... and the rain on Saturday is winding back :( Looking like 2-10mm for most now, with the Otways and upper Yarra getting more.

Hopefully EC for late next week doesn’t happen. It has an intense heat event with temperatures into the mid 30s Melbourne and over 40C in parts of the Mallee :?
stevco123
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Wed Oct 23, 2019 8:00 am

Foggy down here this morning, but only up to about Lyndhurst, then sunny north of there.

Minimum of about 6 degrees.

Nice day coming up. Enjoy!
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Tassiedave
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Wed Oct 23, 2019 6:54 pm

Tas temps today: Fingal 26.7, Campania 26.0, St Helens 23.9, Cressy 23.5, Hobart 23.2, Launceston 19.8
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hillybilly
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Wed Oct 23, 2019 8:03 pm

24C here so about 29C at sea level. Beaut day, though awfully dry with the dewpoint frequently negative. Will dry out really quickly if this goes on for long :o

Hot windy dry one tomorrow. Severe fire danger in the Mallee :?
Daniel
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Wed Oct 23, 2019 9:07 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Wed Oct 23, 2019 8:03 pm
24C here so about 29C at sea level. Beaut day, though awfully dry with the dewpoint frequently negative. Will dry out really quickly if this goes on for long :o

Hot windy dry one tomorrow. Severe fire danger in the Mallee :?
With Hillbilly on this won't spell a good ending in terms of fire danger next week if the dew points stay negative and with significant heat forecast by both the EC and ACCESS-G Models of around 36c+ next Friday and the two days before, then this could spell bad in terms of drying out rapidly before summer. Can say in way I look forward to the heat but on another this is not good in terms of fire danger and potential come summer. Still a week out but this not good at all :o :(
snowfall
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Wed Oct 23, 2019 9:28 pm

27c here today and currently 16c. Already seeing signs of the landscape starting to dry out. We’ve had rain now and then, including some showers on the weekend but not enough to penetrate deeply, so not the best start for the hot, dry, windy day tomorrow. We really need a good soaking rain event soon, though the climate drivers are not exactly running in our favour at the moment.
QldTwister
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Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:01 am

Magic day just unreal prefect day.

Pattern has shifted Hot and dry we be looking like N Vic in month or 2

Feel for North Vic and much of inland Aus SO SO DRY ad only going to get worst least we have water.
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Thu Oct 24, 2019 6:24 am

20C here atm. Should get to nearly 30C here today. Apparently most of Vic will see it’s warmest October day for about four years today. Change tomorrow looks very windy. Wouldn’t rule out a few record high overnight temperatures tonight, though the 24 hour mins will need to jump. Timing of the change which looks to be around 9am in central Vic will be critical. Quite a few showers near the change for areas east of about Melbourne. Am wondering if this one will bring down a dust storm :?:

Cold and showers for the weekend, but will focus on the usual wet spots.

Btw next week is looking bad. EC is showing a multi-way October heatwave with temperatures widely in the mid to high 30s. On Friday it has temps to near 37C around Melbourne. Hoping that changes :?
stevco123
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Thu Oct 24, 2019 7:46 am

A minimum of 9.1 down here this morning with patchy, shallow, fog.

Looks like an easy 34 to 35 today, but not overly confident on the forecast for next Thursday/ Friday. I can see a 27 on Thursday and 25 on Friday, followed by a 19 for next Saturday.

Still a week out so will need to see how it plays out.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Skywalker
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Thu Oct 24, 2019 9:54 am

Absolute cracker of a day for the bike yesterday, and again this morning.
Unfortunately that will change for the ride home as I push into a hot dry windy northerly. :x

The landscape isn't too bad around here, although it's definitely drying out. I have plenty of water in the tank atm so my gardens should continue to kick along nicely.

Really do feel for those up North. :(
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Tassiedave
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Thu Oct 24, 2019 10:16 am

Adelaide over 30 already at 9 am. Strahan on the normally cool west coast of Tassie at 23.5
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hillybilly
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Thu Oct 24, 2019 11:20 am

Ceduna already up to 36 with a DP of -7C. Winds averaging near 50km/hr. That's a FFDI over 100 :o (fortunately there isn't a lot of forest).

City looks comfortably on its way to the mid 30s.
Horts
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Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:07 pm

Ripper of a day. Bring on the heat!
Tassiedave
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Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:47 pm

Strahan now 31 degrees - getting close to their October record!
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Didjman
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Thu Oct 24, 2019 4:23 pm

32 here at 320m atm
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