VIC - Strong front: October 7-9 2019

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hillybilly
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Sun Oct 06, 2019 2:20 pm

A decent front moving up for late on Monday which will bring increasing showers and cold air storms. The system is quite chilly so snow on the alps, potentially dropping to spots like Mt Macedon for a period. It’s mostly showery precip which will favour the wetter spots in the south.

Could be some moderate to locally heavy falls in the Yarra Ranges, Otways and South Gippsland.

The upper trough will eventually sharpen up and see a low develop near the NSW coast which could trigger a second burst of showers later in the week.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sun Oct 06, 2019 2:28 pm

Do I need to bring in wood. ? for tomorrow as today I'm blocking that sun out..
Extremes..
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chasersaddict76
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Sun Oct 06, 2019 2:32 pm

Yeah cold nights return for me 3c to 7c for week properly heating again ...
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chasersaddict76
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Sun Oct 06, 2019 5:06 pm

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Australis(Shell3155)
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Mon Oct 07, 2019 6:05 am

1.5mm so far,
Nice misty drizzle.
Garden saying thank you, (Weeds too)
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hillybilly
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Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:46 am

4mm of mizzle and drizzle this morning in FC. Was nice and damp out, though not overly cool.

Today looks like an inbetween day ahead of increasing showers late.

BTW bay has just popped up to be warmer than Bass Strait which now means showers coming out of the southwest will get a boost when they move up towards Melbourne. This is the typical spring transition (and is seen with a switch from showers which tend to weaken as they hit the bay to showers which tend to strengthen).

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Skywalker
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Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:18 am

Another BOM blunder with their forecast. Either that or lazy forecasting once again.

Melbourne area
Partly cloudy with a very high (90%) chance of showers early this morning


:? :dunno:
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
StratoBendigo
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Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:51 am

hillybilly wrote:
Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:46 am
4mm of mizzle and drizzle this morning in FC. Was nice and damp out, though not overly cool.

Today looks like an inbetween day ahead of increasing showers late.

BTW bay has just popped up to be warmer than Bass Strait which now means showers coming out of the southwest will get a boost when they move up towards Melbourne. This is the typical spring transition (and is seen with a switch from showers which tend to weaken as they hit the bay to showers which tend to strengthen).

Image
Incidentally, the Ocean temp is close to the coldest it's been in 20 years. Similar to 2003 (and 2018 for that matter).
Wilko
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Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:17 pm

Fingers crossed for some sparks tonight over the Bay
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hillybilly
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Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:19 pm

Showers thickening up nicely on radar as the front and trough stand up. Tomorrow looks like a classic spring cold outbreak, though not super cold so be more notable for the coldies, thunderies and small hail rather than low level snow.

A few sparks southwest of Melbourne atm.
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hillybilly
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Tue Oct 08, 2019 7:30 am

11mm in the gauge this morning. Makes ~15mm for the two days counting yesterday's drizzle. Looks like the main trough is sitting just to Melbourne's west and will flick through for this afternoon. Should make for a nice showery day. Won't be a lot in the north, though the odd shower.

Have added a couple of days to the thread as the cold air lingers, and likely we will see the odd showers through til Saturday evening. It could well be a bit thundery at times.
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hillybilly
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Tue Oct 08, 2019 9:38 am

Scored some cracking showers just after 8am with a quick 7mm and another mm since. Makes for 22mm for the thread now including yesterdays drizzle :D

Pretty hit and miss. Falls across central areas range from 0mm east of Macedon to over 20mm around parts of the Dandenongs and outer Yarra Valley.
Skywalker
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Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:32 am

Wow, check out that radar. There is more spots on it than a Dalmatian, showers everywhere.
Love it when things go more southerly. :D
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Gordon
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Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:04 pm

Not up to those Dandenong totals but 6.5mm to 9am and regular heavy showers since; a fair bit of sleety hail too - current temp is just 6C.

Baw Baw snow cams looking like midwinter! (Feels like it too...)
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hillybilly
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Tue Oct 08, 2019 5:28 pm

Nice wintery day in the Dandenongs. Frequent showers with hail and a chilly max of 8.2C. Up to 25.4mm since mid-night with 4.3mm yesterday. Loving it :)

Sharp contrast to the horrible weather to our north with a bunch of early season heat records and locally catastrophic fire weather :(
snowfall
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Tue Oct 08, 2019 6:08 pm

Showery day here today. 13mm so far (including the rain overnight), with a couple of squalls and hail showers this afternoon and a cool maximum of 10.8c. Sure felt lovely and wintry - the wood burner is roaring away! Currently 7c.
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Didjman
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Tue Oct 08, 2019 7:22 pm

My wife said she heard on the radio that it snowed in Gisborne.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Tue Oct 08, 2019 7:39 pm

Wow... Wet...
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hillybilly
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Tue Oct 08, 2019 9:46 pm

Didjman wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 7:22 pm
My wife said she heard on the radio that it snowed in Gisborne.
Probably hail or graupel. I would put the snow level around 800m, perhaps a touch below with the heaviest showers.

We dipped to 4.5C here, so about 2C too warm. Was plenty of hail showers during the day.
snowfall
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Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:41 pm

Didjman wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 7:22 pm
My wife said she heard on the radio that it snowed in Gisborne.
Yeah, no snow that I saw. Definitely hailed and might have been a bit of sleet when the temp dipped.
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