Vic: Becoming summery - October 2-6 2019

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hillybilly
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Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:48 pm

Looks like a potential significant early heat event coming up. Still a way out, but EC has been keen on 2-4 warm to hot days, with mid 30s in the Mallee on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday. The airmass on Saturday could be a scorcher, with EC currently showing 850Ts of 22C over Melbourne. I doubt that will stick, but it shows the potential.

Not much moisture so when it cools down, looks like a pretty lean rain event.
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chasersaddict76
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Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:49 pm

Very nice need warmth and cold nights has not end yet.

Average up here in Bendigo is between 0c to 5c nighttime...so warmth 25c to 28c and cold night 9c...Garr garr

Sick of heating for 4 months still.
jimmyay
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Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:02 pm

Yeah the cold nights have been a bit of a feature this year but I think September has also been less sunny than last year which has also made it feel cooler in the day. Everything’s nice and green though!

Looking forward to warmth!
Adam38
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Sun Sep 29, 2019 2:37 pm

It has been a dry month here, just 20mm this month...
Horts
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Sun Sep 29, 2019 3:51 pm

Flying back tomorrow after a week in Port Douglas, any warmth will be greatly appreciated! 8-)
flyfisher
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Sun Sep 29, 2019 9:49 pm

I cannot see any decent rain coming up - that may be it for 2019. We have done very well here but our luck was always going to run out given the broad scale factors not in our favour. I think that's going to change for 2020 - but a long way off right now.
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hillybilly
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Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:14 am

Been on the road for a couple of days, but watching the progs wiggle. Starting to look like a two part system with warmer conditions Wed/Thur, a bit of a break around Friday then warming up for the weekend. Could well see a 40C in the Mallee, more likely on the weekend. Does look like a chance :( for an early season record going off the latest EC. The Vic October record is "just" 40.2C and the earliest 40C came on 12 October 2004. Tending to think it will fall just short of 40C, but could get pretty close. Still not looking too good for rain,

Southern areas (thankfully) not nearly as extreme, but still a pretty good chance for 30s on Thursday and Sunday (though not everywhere).

BTW driving from Coolongatta to Melbourne really highlighted how dry things are. I missed the worst drought areas, but even so it's seriously dry. The smoke in northern NSW was shocking and the trees are really stressed. Smoke went for about 100km near Coffs Harbour and was choking thick. It gets better around Newcastle to Sydney but then is really dry from just west of Goulburn to about Albury. In NSW a lot of the crops have failed, and many were being grazed. With a week of warm weather I'd expect everywhere from about Goulburn to Albury will be brown. Even areas as south as Flowerdale are dry with very little in the streams and Eildon is way down. Would give northern Vic a couple of weeks before it browns off (unless it rains). In early spring it is usually waterlogged for much of this region :?
StratoBendigo
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Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:53 am

September ended up with average Max and below average Min. Rainfall only 60% of average.

Probably high 20s later this week. Many farmers North of here are making the decision to cut crops for hay.
Gordon
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Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:31 am

Another cold morning here - still only 5C at 9.20am. We'll finish September with temps just fractionally below average, though it feels like it's been colder - maybe because it was on the back of a significantly colder than average August and I'm impatient for things to warm up! :). Looks like I'll get my wish later this week, though 'summery' may be a slight exaggeration for us, with nothing forecast above the low 20s.

For rain, bang on 60mm for September; 20mm below average, although ytd is still running a bit above average at 629mm vs 626mm.

Even if it stops raining now, we couldn't have hoped for a better winter, with most of that rain falling during the low evaporation period of May-September. Local water storages are spilling or nearly so, springs are bubbling, and streams flowing strongly.

Certainly feel for that big sweep of country north of the Snowys - they are having a shocker.
StratoBendigo
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Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:46 am

Yep, and no rain is forecast for the next 15 days here. The green hills will turn brown very quickly.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7
Tassiedave
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Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:46 pm

September 2019 average max in Launceston: 16.6 degrees. Long Term Average 15.7 degrees. Rainfall 42.6mm Average 65.5mm
September 2019 average max in Hobart: 16.8 degrees. Long Term Average 15.1 degrees. Rainfall 34.6mm Average 53mm
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hillybilly
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Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:07 pm

Gordon wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:31 am

Even if it stops raining now, we couldn't have hoped for a better winter, with most of that rain falling during the low evaporation period of May-September. Local water storages are spilling or nearly so, springs are bubbling, and streams flowing strongly.

Certainly feel for that big sweep of country north of the Snowys - they are having a shocker.
Our winter has been like your’s Gordon. We’ve just clocked our fifth month above average which is something I can’t recall happening since moving here in 2001. Not a lot above average, but consistently 10-30mm above each month. Wierd weather as it has been almost all showery stuff with strong topographic enhancement, so those in the north and on the flats have missed out.

I couldn’t believe how it went from waterlogged around the Yarra Valley to dry at Flowerdale over a stretch of just 40km.

You can see this in the deciles for the past sixth months.

Image

Progs not much changed. Change on Sunday looks a bit earlier in the south, while Saturday looks like having sea breezes so won’t get too hot near the coast. Inland should see 2-3 days in the 30s and the Mallee will get close to 40C on Saturday.

Ok bit of a distraction while we wait for some proper weather, but check our Melbournes YTD rain graph. Crikey... it has felt quite wet in the city but we are tracking barely above the record low :o Looking pretty lean til early next week when something is brewing :) 1967 was a positive IOD, like this year.

Image
Tassiedave
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Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:35 pm

The last time Hobart had a below average month for maximum temperatures was November 2016
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hillybilly
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Tue Oct 01, 2019 6:40 am

Some impressively cool temps this morning. Hard to believe it’s going to be warm soon ;) Would be a bit worried for some of the farming area with subzero temps potentially impacting on crops in some of the later developing regions. Looks like the city (though a new site and a bit cooler) has seen its coldest October morning since 1984 :o There hasn't been anything below 4.7 in October since 1984, below 4.2 since 1972, or below 3.9 since 1967 (although there was a 4.0 in November 1980).


Going to be a great arvo (time to clean out the pool).

Progs pretty similar. Perhaps a bit warmer Thursday and a bit cooler Friday. Might get a strong front around Tuesday, though too far out to be too confident.
StratoBendigo
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Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:14 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:07 pm

Ok bit of a distraction while we wait for some proper weather, but check our Melbournes YTD rain graph. Crikey... it has felt quite wet in the city but we are tracking barely above the record low :o Looking pretty lean til early next week when something is brewing :) 1967 was a positive IOD, like this year.

Image
We're on 270 mm YTD. In 1967 it was 234 mm up to the end of Sept. If the rain completely stops from now until New Year's Eve, it'll be a similar total.

Then again, 1982's record of 210 mm is a tough one to beat.
Adam38
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Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:51 pm

The hills around here look like they are already starting to turn brown.
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hillybilly
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Tue Oct 01, 2019 9:21 pm

3.6C to 17C here today. Started wintery and ended almost summery :D Spa running off solar heating reached 33C here today, with a fair kick in the sun so almost the start of the swimming season here :D

EC starting to look a bit more hopeful for showers with the weak front on Thursday arvo, and again Sunday. Suspect system will be moisture starved even though Synoptics look ok. Thursday looks a bit warmer with EC showing near 30C in central Vic so Melbourne a chance for its first 30C, though suspect it will fall short.
Tassiedave
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Wed Oct 02, 2019 1:26 pm

Melbourne has clearly exceeded its forecast maximum temperature already today.
Tassiedave
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Wed Oct 02, 2019 5:24 pm

Temps today in Tas: Campania 24.1, Ouse 24.0, Strahan 23.7, Fingal 23.1, Launceston 20.2, Hobart 18.4
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hillybilly
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Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:40 pm

Down at Walkerville where it was about 25C here today (going by the car :D ). Stunning beach day. Water was chilly but the wind calm and Waratah Bay was almost glassy with a swly swell. Looks like Vic topped out at 31.5C at a couple of spots in the Mallee.

Tomorrow looks warmer again for areas east of about Geelong to Bendigo. Further west gets the wind change earlier. Looks like a shower or two behind the front. Ahead of it the air is bone dry :o
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