Vic - Trough and Rainband: Sept 16-17 2019

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StratoBendigo
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Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:11 am

Some early indications of an embedded trough and rainband with the cold front next week. It could deliver quite good rain along the Great Divide and Central areas.
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chasersaddict76
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Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:28 pm

Good thing trough block dryness from NSW and hope Victoria don't dry-out too fast
Tassiedave
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Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:31 pm

Temps in Tas today: Friendly Beaches 22.7, Fingal 21.9, Hobart 21.5, St Helens 20.9, Sheffield 18.9, Launceston 16.4
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hillybilly
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Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:29 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:11 am
Some early indications of an embedded trough and rainband with the cold front next week. It could deliver quite good rain along the Great Divide and Central areas.
Looks promising for us, but more heat and wind up north. New thread time, nearly?

Bit of a front tomorrow, but not much in it. Perhaps a mm or two. Could be the odd rumble, just to remind us it is spring :D
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chasersaddict76
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Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:25 pm

Very shocking is i got back home from Cairns is West side of mountains ranges is bone dry seen by tour and can see from Plane window is Across middle of QLD and NSW is terrible empty rivers and dams is visible from Plane window and can see Victoria is on edge nice and green to Melbourne...

We are having nice trough storms this Sunday for Victoria from Ranges to Northern Country then Cold uppers bring wintry next weekend by 21st Sept if charts don't change.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:05 am

hillybilly wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:29 pm
Bit of a front tomorrow, but not much in it. Perhaps a mm or two. Could be the odd rumble, just to remind us it is spring :D
Radar has nice blue band, looks like it's moving fast, 5am 12/9/19
Wind Chime has been chimining all night, think it needs a new home further out back..

Edit.. 6am and it didn't make it over the bay.. just wind
Horts
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Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:43 am

Epic mammatus over the Eastern Suburbs this morning, photos don't do it justice.

Taken from Mount Waverley heading towards the 'nongs.
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Skywalker
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Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:11 am

Not a single drop here, just more pointless wind. :roll:

Focus now turns to the upcoming event for later Sunday/Monday.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:02 pm

Horts wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:43 am
Epic mammatus over the Eastern Suburbs this morning, photos don't do it justice.

Taken from Mount Waverley heading towards the 'nongs.

20190912_082237.jpg20190912_081617.jpg
noticeable from Boronia and FTG @8.30am.. very pretty sky..
Wilko
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Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:45 pm

Pouring here
More to come
Very tropical
Blackie
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Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:45 pm

Wonderful sky there Horts.

Moderate rain in Lake Eildon ATM with thunder from the west now conking out.

We're heading nicely toward our 5th month in a row of average or slightly above rainfall in Mansfield.
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hillybilly
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Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:46 pm

Squeezed out 1mm today. Foggy this evening, but overwise a pretty uneventful one. Could see the presence of the IOD with this one with dry prefrontal.

Weekend looking promising through the area of moderate rain is pretty tightly bounded to the north, so could easily see a scenario where it slips just south (hope not). Hoping this one eventuates and gives a drink across Vic and southern NSW which looks a chance.

Could be a burst of warmth about this time next week. EC got 35C plus in northwest and near 30C near Melbourne.
Tassiedave
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Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:43 am

Yesterday reached 20.2 degrees in Launceston. First 20 degree day since May 1st.
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Didjman
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Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:16 am

I like Sundays forecast (including top of 21):

Melbourne area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h turning west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.
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hillybilly
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Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:49 am

System for Sunday seems to be holding which is good :) Trough approaching southwest Victoria later today with the associated upper trough amplifying. This system has tapped a good feed of tropical moisture from way back in the mid Indian Ocean so is unusual by recent standards in having some proper moisture to play with. Precipitable water values prefrontal are in the 30-40mm range which is very healthy :D

Sunday looks like having areas of rain through Bass Strait thickening and spreading north. The system is timed to come through central areas late afternoon which is ideal for arvo heating. It’s quite unstable, particularly northern areas where LI go well negative. There will be a fair bit of mid of mid level muck so thinking most convection will be of the embedded type.

Rainfall totals look healthy for most southern and mountain areas, with locally heavy falls through east central and nearby spot. Locally could see 40mm plus :D Will be less in the northwest and Gippsland.

Be very welcome ahead of a more summery spell late next week.

Tomorrow’s system looks like eventually forming a trough or low on the NSW north coast. Could see some good rain in some of those areas currently suffering awful fires.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:52 am

That's a nice report to read, "Forty"
A heads up to get in the garden today..
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:27 am

A midnight washing on line Undo...
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:55 am

Had thoughts of towels on line Nicely aired and lawns to be tidied up prior to some heavy rain in the afternoon,
Well totally wrong, big drops, nice steady rain, can hear the gutters flowing..
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Didjman
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Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:34 am

4.2 mm here so far. Its looking wild and wooly 2nd half next week! Access G, EC and GFS all showing it.
Last edited by Didjman on Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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hillybilly
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Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:07 am

Woken by heavy rain about 5am. About 3mm in the gauge. Cleared now, but convection bubbling away to our west.

A mild, quite humid and unstable day ahead. Might get a rumble, ahead of rain spreading north tonight. Still looks promising - could well see 20-30mm by this time tomorrow :D
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