Vic - Strong Cold Front August 18 - 19

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StratoBendigo
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Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:55 am

Looks like another blast from the Southwest on Sunday night into Monday. A nice top-up of snow for the Alps, and possibly 700 HPa temps down to -16 degC which isn't too shabby either.
JasmineStorm
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Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:51 pm

GFS still going for broke :) Today's 18Z run dropping the 524 thick line over Melbourne on Monday morning, snow around sea level if there is moisture available. Looks about a degree colder @850 hPa throughout Vic than the last polar surge. More a SW flow this system. Still over 100 hours to go for the downgrades though.
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JasmineStorm
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Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:17 pm

EC and UK upgrade with GFS :) the German model Icon producing another Bass strait cut off extratropical cyclone.
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hillybilly
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Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:50 am

EC really starting to crank this system. The front on Sunday is standing up with a very sharp temperature gradient. On the latest run temperatures east of Melbourne get into the 20s on Sunday with mid 20s showing up locally in Gippsland (peak around 24 or 25C). Don’t think there will be any records but could get close.

Then, dramatic change with snow levels dropping below 600m by Monday morning. Doesn’t look like a heavy low level fall, but does look like Otways, central ranges and possibly the Dandenongs could get a bit.

Winds look very gusty on Sunday, likely topping 100km/hr in the usual windy spots which won’t be good with lots of trees sitting in damp soils :? For NSW could well be a significant dust storm depending on the details with very warm conditions topping 30C in the north.
StratoBendigo
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Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:48 am

Decent frost here this morning. Down to -1c.

Forecast models are also suggesting a decent follow up front on Wednesday-Thursday. Going to be windy.
Macedonian
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Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:03 pm

0.9C earlier with a frost and now it is windy as hell. It feels colder now than it did at all over the weekend.
Daniel
Stratus
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Location: Boronia, VIC

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:34 pm

Both the 18z GFS, 12Z EC have a thickness bubble of 524 appearing in the runs. ICON also on board for snow to low levels. Just timing of a 12-hour gap is the only thing the models seem to be disagreeing on but otherwise are all on the same page with the event of a Strong Cold Front. Be Interesting as we get day by day closer can they hold or will they downgrade? Either way be good to see a follow up after last weeks event :D
Tassiedave
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Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:46 pm

Tas temps today: Hobart 18.5 degrees, Dunalley 18, Friendly Beaches 17, Launceston 14
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hillybilly
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Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:53 pm

Wierd little low slipping through overnight into tomorrow with a band of rain. Could be locally 5-10mm, ahead of the mild weekend (well til some time mid arvo Sunday :D ).

EC and GFS both have 850Ts dropping to around -5C on Monday morning but little precip away from the coast. Definitely cold enough for snow flurries here, but moisture looks an issue. Suspect similar for most spots as the flow is too westerly. Shame to watch that cold air not syncing with the precip.

Looks like a slow to clear system next week once the high starts to move in and we get into warm air advection, so multiple days of shower and drizzle in the south. Kind of system that can really add up in the Dandenongs :D

Very different in NSW where they spike into the 30s on Sunday, with a set up which will see fire weather....and probably a decent dust storm :o
Tassiedave
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Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:41 am

Rain overnight: Mt Read 33mm, Cape Grim 27mm, Wynyard 12mm, Scottsdale 12mm, Devonport 3mm, Launceston 1mm, Hobart 1mm
tonycynic
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Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:38 pm

Steady rain here in Doveton. Still t-shirt weather though.
Dane
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Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:43 pm

Steady rain here since midday but its easing off now, 3mm's so far MTD now 67mm's - Ave is 74mm's.
Really mild earlier reaching 13c on my PWS now down to a more Ballarat like 9.3c
Hawker
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Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:26 pm

Thanks for the updates TD That west coast area, Mnt Read ect must get awfully soggy
underfoot this time of year.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:22 pm

Put the dog on the chain "in the sun"
Whoops.. one wet black dog, and bedding..
wasn't expecting that..
puddles dried up and have returned again..
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Didjman
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Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:55 pm

5mm here - totally unexpected
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occluded
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Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:02 pm

Odd day in the CBD. Cloudy cold and windy in the morning, sunny mild and breezy by lunchtime, steady rain after lunch.

Not quite four seasons in one day but not far off.
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hillybilly
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Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:48 pm

EC had 11mm for us today, and there's 11mm in the gauge. Amazing (well IMHO). One of those days where you wake up, look at the radar and think the models might have it wrong ;)

MTD is now getting close to 100mm. The monthly average is about 30mm away so should get there.
Tassiedave
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Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:33 pm

Rain since 9am in Tas: Mt Barrow 14mm, Gray 12mm, Mathinna 10mm, Launceston 7.6mm, Low Head 5mm, Hobart 0mm. Prior to today Launceston had only recorded 4.8 mm MTD.
snowfall
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Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:06 pm

3.3mm here. Not a great deal but still more than I expected and keeps the monthly total ticking over. Reached 13c today, our warmest day so far this month.
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hillybilly
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Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:06 pm

Looking at EC and GFS they are slowing down the front again. Means a warmer Sunday.

Monday looks icy cold. EC has snow levels dropping below 600m with some precip so a chance for the odd flurry here and in the usual cold spots. Precip doesn’t look that great so light falls where they occur.
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