VIC - Upper trough and weak front: July 28-30 2019

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hillybilly
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Sun Jul 28, 2019 7:29 am

A weak upper trough will be the main feature this week, sitting to the north of the incoming high. Will be a weak surface trough and patchy light rain developing across the north, mainly on Monday. A couple of weak fronts will move up from the south, with the odd shower. The upper trough eventually moves north to affect NSW and Queensland, though it looks quite moisture starved so not big totals atm on the models.

Could see locally 5-15mm in the north, but only dribbles in the south. Marginal temperatures for snow, so just about the peaks, and only light falls. Again, a week without anything properly wintery for those of us at lower elevations :(
Hawker
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Sun Jul 28, 2019 8:08 am

Yes a nothing week practically, don't mind not getting the cold,
but we still need lots of rain. If I don't ever see another frost here it wouldn't worry me, almost,
except it might mean something else has happened!!!!
Adam38
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Sun Jul 28, 2019 6:52 pm

We haven’t really had a frost here this winter so far, normally by now B.Marsh would’ve had a few sub zero mornings.
snowfall
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Sun Jul 28, 2019 7:15 pm

Only two frosts here this winter, one was light and the other a little heavier. Lowest temp was -0.3c. Last year, we had several frosts and some very cold mornings. It has been a mild winter for sure. For July, I’m currently tracking about 1.5c above average for both the maximum and minimum temps. 11.7c here today and 3.2c this morning.
StratoBendigo
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Sun Jul 28, 2019 7:30 pm

Yeah, it has been on the mild side. Some cold days this week though.

Upgrade in rain totals for tomorrow. Might even get 10mm if we're lucky.
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hillybilly
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Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:58 am

OK falls across the north which is good to see. Stopped about 30km north of the Dandenongs. Foggy morning for us, and might get a shower or two. Then a really long dry spell - could last for 8-10 days which is pretty unusual for July into August.
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Supercellimpact
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Mon Jul 29, 2019 8:02 am

4mm so far with light rain falling.
JasmineStorm
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Mon Jul 29, 2019 11:23 am

Squeezed in 0.5mm
StratoBendigo
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Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:25 pm

Nice to see more rain overnight in Northern Vic. 11mm in Korong Vale, 10mm in Kerang is great for the crops there. I know a few farmers in the area and they're happy atm. Just need good finishing rains in Spring.
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hillybilly
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Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:35 pm

Foggy evening here with the odd shower. 0.6mm in the gauge. City still 2mm off its average so it looks like six of seven below average there, unless something unexpected happens :?:

Fairly mild day here with a max of 11C. Sounds cold, but with 8 stars energy rating on the house, these days see the house pop up into the low 20s inside. Friend back from Buller reckons it’s basically snowmaking to be skied. Kinda highlights the lack of persistent wintery weather atm.
snowfall
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Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:15 pm

4mm here overnight and this afternoon. Currently foggy with the odd light shower/drizzle and 7c. It does look like quite a benign period coming up - hopefully a decent rain event will emerge not too far into August.
93ben
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Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:40 pm

Weather is just boring atm. There still hasn't been enough rain and hardly any snow. Plus the temperatures have been pretty warm considering that it used to get a lot colder a couple of years ago.

Btw anyone going to this? http://theaustralianweatherforum.com/fo ... =13&t=2482 ASWA Conference 2019. I'm looking forward to it that I created a thread in the lounge for anyone interested.
Xtreme Weather Warnings Australia ⇦ Like my weather warning page to get the latest weather warnings from the BOM.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:02 am

Pulled down a fence to put up a new one.
No moisture in the ground,
Or the little that's on the top layer will be gone with any sun or wind..
it is under gums. But lots more required..
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hillybilly
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Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:01 am

1.8mm in the gauge this morning. Misty this morning with the odd spit, but that looks to be it. Hardly an "event" to get excited about.

Another week front through on Thursday which should drop a shower or two more.

Could be a pattern change in about a week with forecasts for a strong negative SAM which often leads to high amplitude systems.
StratoBendigo
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Tue Jul 30, 2019 3:19 pm

Cold and cloudy with a max temp of just 10c today. More typical of July.

-ve AAO is starting to influence the forecast charts in about one week's time. Some less boring weather perhaps around August 8.
Macedonian
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Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:19 pm

My coldest July max today. Only got to 3.4C here and back to 2.9C now.
About 75mm for the month.
snowfall
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Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:00 pm

1.1mm here overnight and this morning with some drizzle and the occasional light shower. Cool one today - maximum of 8c and currently 4c. Fingers crossed a negative AAO emerges. We need everything we can get before the warmer weather comes back.
snowfall
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Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:05 pm

We’ll finish the month here with about 56mm. It’s below average but not disastrous. 357mm YTD, which is around 40mm below average.
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hillybilly
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Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:58 am

Macedonian wrote:
Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:19 pm
My coldest July max today. Only got to 3.4C here and back to 2.9C now.
About 75mm for the month.
7.3C for us so back to more normal (even colder than normal) wintery weather here :D We had a 4.7C max a couple of weeekends back so not our coldest.

Currently in the 3C’s up here, so suspect a light frost. Will venture out to feed the chooks shortly :D

Starting to look like a good spell of rainy cold weather from about Tuesday, with potential for decent snowfalls. Waiting to see if it sticks.

We managed to get to about 115mm for the month so about 10mm above average. YTD about 600mm, which is about 80mm below average give or take. Doing pretty well for an almost El Niño and positive IOD year. Others are doing much worse... city is about 150mm behind average and running in the driest ten years in record :(
stevco123
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Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:03 am

A minimum of 0.5 degrees this morning with a nice layer of white in the usual spots. Cerberus, just down the road, got down to -0.6 according to BoM.
Last edited by stevco123 on Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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