Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

[crikey]

Yes. I can see that. Quite a decent elongation though. I wonder if it will 'cut off'.

I captured this spectacular image of the 10hPa windstreams last night.
If you click on the screen at any point you get a wind speed reading .,That intense white area is clocking 521km/hr
!

taken from nullschool

[crikey]

The meridpnal,(wavy),200hPa jetstream layer doing its magic sprawling upper cloud across the SH.
NICE

[Didjman]

Have been watching that. Good to see a bit of moisture coming down from NW.

On 70Hpa nullschool over the pole, the right hand low has reformed, though weakly, and is a third forming below Oz??

[Didjman]

Have we a triangle of vortices developing over the pole at 70hpa???

[Didjman]

This looks weird - never seen it before:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -76.76,410

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 30anim.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 10anim.gif

also:
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/? ... here&lc=sh
Batten down NZ for next week! IMHO

Thoughts anyone??

[crikey]

Hi 'didj'.,Thanks for keeping an eye on the progress of these stratosphere anomalies
We can say that since the first central vortex split on the 7th July 2019, the warm /cool anomaly has stopped rotating around the pole .
The warm anomaly is stationary between the longitude of sth Africa and SW Australia
The cold anomaly fills in the rest around the pole.
We can say that the anomaly are deep in that we observe this from at least 10hPa down to 70hPa.

The central vortex has formed 3 lobes. Watching for any cut offs currently.
Here is a snap form your archives
The vortex at 10hPamis in overdrive' with outer winds clocking 500km/hr.An anti cyclone is attached to,the periphery
26th july ,today, the central vortex 10hpa is now also loosing symetry and looks loke 3 lobes trying to form there as well.

[crikey]

AAO trending positive.
Westerly belt contracted poleward.
Long wave surface troughing.,One . 140W
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View

[Didjman]

Polar vortex at 70hpa returning to "status quo":
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -90.75,410
Note, the jet is approaching a more circular pattern rather than the distinct triangle of a few days ago.

The heating anomaly at 50hpa is now a more mid latitude event, though still quasi stationary:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

Batten the hatches though if in NZ this week!

[StratoBendigo]

AAO is looking like it'll be nice and negative into August. Something to keep an eye on:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... _ensm.html

[JasmineStorm]

Yes SB, the stratospheric disturbance that Crikey and Didjman have been following is propagating towards the lower levels. It's now all about the Rossby wave and I think NZ is first cab off the rank as Didjman suggests. Keeping an eye towards the middle of August when the block is broken down.

[Didjman]

Batten the hatches though if in NZ this week!

The Rossby Wave chart for NZ is impressive for the whole week if it happens:
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/? ... here&lc=sh

[Didjman]

. Keeping an eye towards the middle of August when the block is broken down.

I notice this morning that the polar jet at 250 & 500mb are noticeably further north between Africa and Oz.

[JasmineStorm]

If the EC ensemble members verify in the next 2 week, this will be the first full scale sudden stratospheric warming event since 2002. Could be an interesting September for the mid latitudes of OZ.

[JasmineStorm]

75 model runs across the American and European ensembles on the 12z run suggests a vigorous cold wave into the 2nd week of August. The stratospheric disturbance discussed in earlier posts is arriving at the surface

[StratoBendigo]

00Z GFS looks very special for 2nd week of August too. Fun times ahead.

[Didjman]

Latest temp anomoly gifs at 10 / 30 / 50 Hpa:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 10anim.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 30anim.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

Not alot of change in nearly 2 weeks!

Polar vortex at 70Hpa getting slowly back to near normal:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -77.75,488

Except for a huge northward kink in the jet mid pacific

[crikey]

Hi 'guys'.
Just arrived back in west VIC after many days on the road. Snow at Perisher was fun.
Just had a look at AAO forecast. ALL ensemble members going for massive drop in to the negative this week.
Right down to the bottom of the scale. Minus 4
Can't wait to see how this pans out. ' '
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... _ensm.html

I don't think l have seen a drop to minus 4 before. I must check the records.
Nice to come back to something exciting.,And thanks for the stratosphere updates

[crikey]

2nd August.
Jetstream report. ACC G 200hPa

There is a downturn in speed generally,from last week , although the forecast is for the sub tropical jet to become more zonal and increase in velocity by the 8th August.

The sub polar jet remains weak in both form and velocity and has been so since the warm/cold anomalies appeared in the polar vortex region 50-70hPa layer back in May 2019.

.........

I find it quite interesting that despite the weakness of the sub polar jet for so long and its contraction poleward, we have still managed a couple of decent snow dumps and more to come next week.
However it should be noted that they all occurred during. neg AAO surface phenomena.

I am also quite interested to see how the sub tropical jet will influence the northern extent of our next cold pool and snow dump because next friday , 8th August the sub tropical jet is forecast to sit right across Victoria.

[crikey]

Continuing low dew points over the continent this autumn and winter. Including the tropics
Example
Today 1pm Broome. DEW POINT minus 4.3deg c and surface temp' 31..wind easterly from the desert
Drops the feels like temp' down to 24.8deg c
link
http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/observations/w ... ml?ref=hdr


source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View

[Didjman]

If the EC ensemble members verify in the next 2 week, this will be the first full scale sudden stratospheric warming event since 2002. Could be an interesting September for the mid latitudes of OZ.

Hi JS,
where did that "Chart / graphic" come from?