Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

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Didjman
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:54 pm

Might be a good storm season, especially if the IOD and MJO play ball :D
Re the SSW descending, this appears to show similar:

Image

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Didjman
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:49 am

Image

Highest temp is +3.71C.

Is the first offshoot from this event happening at the surface in OZ later this week (the SSW has been going for around 3 weeks)?

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:26 am

SSW seems to be coupling near the Jetstream in a week, hard to tell still on when full potential reaches the lower troposphere.

SAM saves the day again in Vic for the Southern wet season. Virtually no rain in March and April, positive IOD, neutral pacific and then BANG.....the start of May has a moderate low level stratospheric disturbance. BoM drought map since March tells the story when you see two thirds of the time since May has been a negative SAM. Rain and snow! All went to script for most of Vic :) Without the negative SAM sequence, that would have been a very redish BoM map.

IMO, dry areas of OZ will see major flooding within 12 months as the ocean's are starting to change.
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