Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:32 pm

SAM looks like going seriously -ve at the surface 2nd half September!

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Looks like all the ducks are lining up! Polar Vortex is seriously ill as Rhys_34 mentioned, and another eddy is forecast to rise into the polar stratosphere:

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So it doesn't look like the heat in the stratosphere is dissipating any time soon:

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:04 am

The vortex is now also slowing down at 10 hpa - also near Chile. From around 500klm/hr to 130klm/hr.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:38 pm

Didjman wrote:
Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:32 pm

So it doesn't look like the heat in the stratosphere is dissipating any time soon:

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:20 am

Classic negative SAM and positive IOD climate signatures for August. Certainly been a cold and wet around these parts. Snow lovers lapping it up in the Alps :)
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Gordon » Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:47 pm

This article just out on the ABC site https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-06/ ... k/11481498 says the current Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is almost unprecedented (only one other to rival it recorded in 2002) but no mention of cold/ low level snow :?

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:47 pm

The Polar Vortex which is usually cylindrical, is suffering from middle aged spread!! :D

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:40 am

These graphics are pretty impressive:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 10anim.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

Edit: It appears the speed of rotation of the outer areas of the vortex at both 70 and 10 hpa is slowing,

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:23 pm

Gordon wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:47 pm
This article just out on the ABC site https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-06/ ... k/11481498 says the current Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is almost unprecedented (only one other to rival it recorded in 2002) but no mention of cold/ low level snow :?
A little side stat. The 2nd coldest ever AFL/VFL grand final was in 2002, with a top of 11.9c, a week after the SSW peaked over the south pole. Coldest grand final was in 1958 of 11.3c but this was before satellite technology, so we don't know if their was a SSW event at the time. These extreme's come down to timing with synoptics but thought it was interesting :)

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:25 pm

Didjman wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:40 am
These graphics are pretty impressive:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 10anim.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

Edit: It appears the speed of rotation of the outer areas of the vortex at both 70 and 10 hpa is slowing,
Incredible sequence on those NOAA gifs. Can't wait to see the updated sequence about a week from now :)

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:40 pm

Yeah!! EC have the SSW still going strong 17 September!

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Sun Sep 08, 2019 8:17 am

Polar Vortex is going through some contortions atm:

Image

The tropopause has also lowered 6000ft in 12 hrs. Will be interesting to see the next edition at 2300Z:

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Sun Sep 08, 2019 1:23 pm

Weird pattern at ctr of the vortex at 70hpa:

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:28 am

The warm blob in the NE Pacific is doing a repeat of Sept 2014: https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2019/09/a-su ... e-pacific/

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:28 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:28 am
The warm blob in the NE Pacific is doing a repeat of Sept 2014
Is this related to or caused by El Nino? Or is it caused by the North pacific and Alaska Currents?

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:10 am

Current indications are that SAM which is currently around +2 (according to GFS) will return to negative figures around the time of the equinox. The tropopause has continued to rise after the front, so no coupling yet. The vortex wind speeds at both 70 and 10 hpa appear to be slowing as a general trend.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Tassiedave » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:24 pm

What is the driver behind the incredibly dry weather in SE Qld and NE NSW at the moment?

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:16 pm

Neg SAM pushing westerly flow northward. Will get worse when effects of SSW really kick in after equinox

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:23 pm

What is causing the kink in the vortex at 10 hpa? A rising eddy or the high ridging??
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:44 am

The waiting game is on! SAM is around 0 atm:

Image
Image

But what about these!!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 10anim.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 30anim.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

EC is predicting the SSW will be on the wane around the 20 September

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:30 am

EC has the SSW on the move downward, starting to cook at 100 HPA near the polar circle :)

In other driver news, Pacific is getting very interesting :) Some Fijian expresses during cyclone season heading towards OZ if this keeps going
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