Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:15 am

Some serious heating anomalies currently between Africa and OZ at 50Hpa:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:09 pm

The eddie JS referred to yesterday is rising in altitude!

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Fri Aug 16, 2019 4:08 pm

Didjman wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:09 pm
The eddie JS referred to yesterday is rising in altitude!
As in the warmest part from 800hpa to 300hpa on the 14th, is now from 800hpa up to 100hpa on the 15th.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:51 pm

Hi 'Didj'. Thanks for your obs' and great enthusiasm
I don't know enough about heat eddy flux to comment unfortunately.
Had a look at GFS stratosphere forecasts. Can't see any signs of split at 10 hPa this week.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... _a_f/#emcz

The null school windstream looks a tad distorted with a protrusion tonight.But nothing extraordinary atm
Happy to watch and keep an open mind. I have never watched stratosphere obs' for any length of time.
This year being an exception.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:09 pm

crikey wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:51 pm
Hi 'Didj'. Thanks for your obs' and great enthusiasm

Had a look at GFS stratosphere forecasts. Can't see any signs of split at 10 hPa this week.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... _a_f/#emcz

The null school windstream looks a tad distorted with a protrusion tonight.But nothing extraordinary atm
Hi Crikey,
From my understanding - what is developing now is the precursor to a Polar Vortex split / distortion; where waves of heat (relatively) propagate upwards into the stratosphere (above the Pole). The energy release as the air cools disturbs the usual air movement patterns (above the Antarctic) leading to a vortex distortion / split. This process can take a couple of weeks as I understand it. The heat eddies are the beginning of the process. Hope this explains things :D

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:30 am

This morning we have a crescent shaped Polar Vortex at 70Hpa:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -91.16,689

At 10Hpa, there is a slight hint of it:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -91.16,689

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:42 am

Between the 7th and 11th of next month we are forecast to have a strong MJO pulse go through our region. The possibility of some rain is there if it links with any fronts, troughs or lows. If it links with the projected Polar Vortex resulting weather, could be fun times!

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:30 am

Some serious heat anomalies at all 3 levels over mid latitudes AND Antarctica between Africa and OZ!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 10anim.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 30anim.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

At 70 Hpa, the vortex looks like it wants to split:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -97.19,820

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:06 pm

Yes. 'didj' . The central vortex is definately looking very nodal. Thanks for the updates.
.........
19th August 2019
The AAO has been negative since July 2019. That’ 46 days in the negative range.
We haven’t seen a long negative phase like this for awhile.
The AAO is currently minus one and forecasts keep the AAO neg until the end of the month.
The westerly belt is contracted north with a well defined meridonal wavy pattern.
There are 4 large nodes today. All extending at least to 30s latitude.
This bodes well for continued cold fronts and westerly belt troughing for the southern quadrant of Australia.
Also continued chances of snow for the alps for the rest of August as cold pools get propelled northward

Image

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View

Image
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /aao.shtml

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:12 pm

Weird Vortex pattern at 70Hpa:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -95.14,820
Some pretty obvious distortions in the wind flow pattern there!

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:13 am

Zooming in, there is a lot of wind shear attacking the Polar Vortex at both 10 and 70 Hpa:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 90.11,1363
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -90.11,782

Looking at the following animation, its easy to see why:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

Looking at the latest Eddy Heat Flux chart at :
https://www.stratobserve.com/anom_ts_diags,

it looks like there is about to be alot of heat attacking the polar stratosphere.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:07 am

This is starting to look epic. I'm going to start preparing for an extreme equinox period ;)

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:31 pm

Didjman wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:13 am
Zooming in, there is a lot of wind shear attacking the Polar Vortex at both 10 and 70 Hpa:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 90.11,1363
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -90.11,782

Looking at the following animation, its easy to see why:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

Looking at the latest Eddy Heat Flux chart at :
https://www.stratobserve.com/anom_ts_diags,

it looks like there is about to be alot of heat attacking the polar stratosphere.
That eddy heat flux link above , points to wind anomalies 'didj'
None the less it is interesting it is forecasting a drop in wind speed from the 29th Aug' into early Sept'.
I have my reservations about a split at 10hPa , mainly because the outer wind bands are so very strong .
I would have thought they would need to weaken considerably. However watching with interest, especially the AAO.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:36 pm

Crikey, up the top of that site is a drop down menu where you can select "eddy heat flux anomalies" :D

Also Crikey, I am saving the heat flux anomaly charts as a sequence for my own learning :D

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:58 pm

Didjman wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:36 pm
Crikey, up the top of that site is a drop down menu where you can select "eddy heat flux anomalies" :D

Also Crikey, I am saving the heat flux anomaly charts as a sequence for my own learning :D
May l recommend you start up your own 'Wordpress' account and publish and save your research there.
Its good fun and free.
It even downloads and stores your pictures there on their server
................

AUGUST 20th 2019
Low dew points continue across large expanses of the SH.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801 ... 4376.shtml
Biloela.. minus 15 deg c this afternoon
Neg 8 in many parts of inland NSW
Image
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Tue Aug 20, 2019 4:28 pm

crikey wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:58 pm

May l recommend you start up your own 'Wordpress' account and publish and save your research there.
Its good fun and free.
It even downloads and stores your pictures there on their server
................
https://didjman59.wordpress.com/2019/08 ... nter-2019/

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Tue Aug 20, 2019 4:48 pm

The jet around the Polar "Vortex" is now anything BUT circular at 70Hpa!
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -95.15,488

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:37 pm

Its looking like the strong MJO will go through before the expected September action, but we still have a few weeks to go:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... egfs.shtml

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:39 am

Goodness me.....over 100+ models across multiple agencies are now showing an extraordinary heat bomb developing over the polar region in the upper stratosphere at the end of August.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:11 am

Didjman wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 4:28 pm
crikey wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:58 pm

May l recommend you start up your own 'Wordpress' account and publish and save your research there.
Its good fun and free.
It even downloads and stores your pictures there on their server
................
https://didjman59.wordpress.com/2019/08 ... nter-2019/
Nice one.. :D May you have great fun with your blog.
Thanks for the heads up re eddy heat flix forecast. The last few days of August and into september look interesting for a watch over all atmospheric layers of the pole and sub polar region.

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