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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:56 am
by StratoBendigo
This kind of weather isn't all that unusual for June. It happened in 1995 when we had a week of subtropical Northerlies and mild temps. 100mm in one week back then which I doubt we'll repeat this week. Perhaps 30-40mm instead.
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:55 am
by Tassiedave
Rain last 24 hrs: Kimberley 21mm, Cape Grim 19mm, Wynyard 18mm, Deloraine 11mm, Scottsdale 11mm, Launceston 7.2mm, Hobart 0.8mm
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:13 am
by Skywalker
Nice wet morning down here on the island, about 5mm so far.
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:14 am
by JasmineStorm
I wasn't sure what I would get in round 1. Ended up squeezing in 4mm.
EC has been very consistent for 30 to 50mm on Wednesday around here. Access R going for 40 to 60mm on the 18Z run here with quite decent falls in the Wimmera and Mallee, 20 to 30mm for metro Melbourne. Will be interesting to see Access C tomorrow.
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:16 am
by Hawker
4mm here overnight, maybe a bit under expectations.
Sun is out, no sign of the next one on the sat map
should be good to see it develop.
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:27 am
by jimmyay
Very mild night last night, barely fell below 15 degrees.
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:35 am
by Gordon
7mm here, nice start. Looks like north of Ballarat may have done quite a bit better.
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:48 am
by Didjman
4.8mm here so far for the event. Sun is appearing now
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:18 am
by snowfall
Just under 2mm here. A bit less than elsewhere, due to some rain shadowing. Strong NW winds don't favour us too well, so not quite sure what to expect on Wednesday. Interesting system coming up though, and good to see it's likely to have some decent moisture. Very mild here - the minimum temp overnight was just 11.3c. That's warmer than most of our maximum temperatures last week.
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:23 am
by Australis(Shell3155)
Was expecting that last band on the radar to deliver,
Looks like cleaning the fish tank will have to wait till Wednesday,
Too good not to be outside..
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:18 pm
by Sean
Surprising 5mm last night. Very handy
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:21 pm
by Macedonian
10mm here, it filled up my recently drained and cleaned frog pond. Very timely!
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:37 pm
by QldTwister
4.5mm last night
Yeah 19c atm I will take it, for June its nice out there and tomorrow should be nice too
Lots of rain coming Wednesday hoping on and N of the ranges and esapically far west and NW Vic can get a good 20-30mm out of it.
Active week
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 4:19 pm
by Tassiedave
Rain since 9am: Pine Tree Rivulet 51mm, Mt Barrow 31mm, Western Creek 28mm, Cradle Mtn 27mm, Deloraine 13mm, Launceston 9.2mm, Hobart 0.8mm
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 6:03 pm
by hillybilly
7mm today in both FC and Walkerville. Briefly heavy. Then, a beaut mild sunny arvo.
Progs wound back a fair bit for Wednesday. Still solid falls at 10-20mm south, 20-40mm north but down from earlier falls which were about double that. Hopefully the event surprises. The infeed is excellent but the Synoptics aren’t great now.
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:46 am
by StratoBendigo
Still on track for around 25mm tomorrow which will be brilliant for the winter crops. Then it looks like cool temps in a Westerly/Southwesterly regime typical of this time of year after tomorrow.
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:13 am
by JasmineStorm
BoM now have the SWW for tomorrow, virtually state wide for wind and also heavy rain (Wimmera and Mallee).
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml
I'm waiting patiently for the Access C run this afternoon
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:37 pm
by hillybilly
StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:46 am
Still on track for around 25mm tomorrow which will be brilliant for the winter crops. Then it looks like cool temps in a Westerly/Southwesterly regime typical of this time of year after tomorrow.
Looks like it should be cool, but the uppers stay rather mild. Could change, but GFS/EC has these sitting in 2-4C range until next week. Can't really see much snow in the alps or below average temps with those uppers.
Perhaps a good cold blast this time next week.
BTW the Melbourne Ap precipitable water record for June is 29.1mm from 6 June 2001. This morning's GFS run had the value around 35mm at 10am to 12pm. Be remarkable if that happens
Can see why this system has the potential to produce flash floods
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:22 pm
by StratoBendigo
hillybilly wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:37 pm
StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:46 am
Still on track for around 25mm tomorrow which will be brilliant for the winter crops. Then it looks like cool temps in a Westerly/Southwesterly regime typical of this time of year after tomorrow.
Looks like it should be cool, but the uppers stay rather mild. Could change, but GFS/EC has these sitting in 2-4C range until next week. Can't really see much snow in the alps or below average temps with those uppers.
Perhaps a good cold blast this time next week.
BTW the Melbourne Ap precipitable water record for June is 29.1mm from 6 June 2001. This morning's GFS run had the value around 35mm at 10am to 12pm. Be remarkable if that happens
Can see why this system has the potential to produce flash floods
Yes, certainly an impressive column of saturated air. Right up to 250 HPa on the charts for tomorrow - that's a serious pineapple express.
Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Posted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:00 pm
by JasmineStorm
Yes, lots of moisture but it's a fast mover. Access C 00Z is in and it's projecting a widespread rain event except for East Gippsland with parts south of the ranges falling victim to the north westerly rain shadow. Mallee and Wimmera will love this moisture rich NW flow. The winds around the Yarra Valley into the Alps are feral tomorrow afternoon with the Jet stream in overdrive.