They collectively look good. GFS a bit too rainshadowed for my liking, but other models keener.JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:20 pm EC, Access G and CMC now projecting 80 to 100mm in the latest 10 day outlook for here
Locally, this year is starting to look like 1908 which was a swinging positive IOD and neutral El Nino. Only 51mm fell in the first 4 months in 1908 and then nearly 500mm fell in the next 6 months with the traditional flood and drought ocean signals not existing.
Perth is certainly drying out! The average rainfall is now only 730mm, it used to be 882mm.hillybilly wrote: ↑Fri Jun 07, 2019 5:43 am Min of 12C in the city and 8C here. Currently 5C at Mount Hotham and Falls Creek which are poking into the warmer air aloft. Not quite your usual winter weather for 5am Sign of the incoming surge of warmer damp weather that will dominate the week.
Progs still looking very encouraging for follow up falls. EC has about 40mm for here in FC, and falls around 100mm about the wetter parts of the ranges. It will be pretty much all rain, so good for runoff, but will make a mess of the early season snowfalls. Does turn colder by about Friday so some top up at the end of the event.
Fantastic system for southwest WA. Perth is now ahead of 2006 YTD so no longer the driest year at this point. The weather is becoming mighty wierd there with the onset of the fronts increasingly delayed, but occasional very big systems. This current one is odd as it’s synoptically not that strong but it’s drawn a huge plume of tropical moisture south which is making up for it. Peak falls south of Perth are nearing 100mm for the past 12 hours.
1908 was notorious for some large and unusual snowfalls. Interestingly January 1908 had a particularly nasty heatwave in Vic. Sounds familiar...JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:20 pm EC, Access G and CMC now projecting 80 to 100mm in the latest 10 day outlook for here
Locally, this year is starting to look like 1908 which was a swinging positive IOD and neutral El Nino. Only 51mm fell in the first 4 months in 1908 and then nearly 500mm fell in the next 6 months with the traditional flood and drought ocean signals not existing.
Problem is the SAM is a symptom or diagnostic rather than a driver or predictable mode. Also, the SAM in our region is influenced by ENSO and IOD with El Niño and positive IOD both tending to have positive SAM in our region in winter/spring. Adding to these the SAM is also trending more positive over time.Locally , for over 147 years of data from the BoM site, it seems the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the main driver of dry extremes and not the Pacific or Indian oceans.
IMO, that is a one dimensional view which is why Access S is flopping at the moment. Earlier in May it was the MJO phase followed by a mild stratospheric warming triggering SAM to plunge in late May giving the Alps a one in 20 year May snow event. Both IOD and El Nino were and are still neutral (IOD moving into positive) yet record May rain for parts of Victoria.hillybilly wrote: ↑Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:46 amProblem is the SAM is a symptom or diagnostic rather than a driver or predictable mode. Also, the SAM in our region is influenced by ENSO and IOD with El Niño and positive IOD both tending to have positive SAM in our region in winter/spring. Adding to these the SAM is also trending more positive over time.Locally , for over 147 years of data from the BoM site, it seems the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the main driver of dry extremes and not the Pacific or Indian oceans.