VIC - Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15 2019

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hillybilly
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VIC - Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15 2019

Post by hillybilly » Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:24 am

Thread for the coming week which will see a large long-wave trough to our west throw a series of front across the bight into Victoria. With flow tending to be northwest this system will be mild for winter so not much in the way of cold weather, but it will tap a decent infeed of moisture so could be a significant rain producer. The MJO is currently active to our immediate west so the conditions for a mid-latitude to tropical link are good ATM. Progs showing widespread 50-100mm possible in the wetter spots so could produce some significant falls (and runoff will be increased by snow melt).

Be interesting to watch Perth as this system hits. Today it has a Total Fire Ban and a Severe Fire Weather Warning (following the driest start to a year on record) with just ~75mm. This will change dramatically in the next few days with a major storm with heavy rain, big surf, coastal flooding etc :o

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by Tassiedave » Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:19 am

720 am temperatures: Hobart Airport 12 degrees. Brisbane Airport 11.8 degrees

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by Gordon » Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:42 am

WATL looking very good for rainfall totals from these systems in this morning's run; large parts of Vic in the 25-100mm range and nowhere misses out on a useful drop. Might get us to our June average (36mm away):

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by Adam38 » Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:02 am

Great to see that SW WA is finally getting some rain, I spoke with dad over the weekend, he said he has never seen the area (Perth hills) look so dry. Paddocks with just dust and stubble in June...

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by StratoBendigo » Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:06 pm

If the latest EC is any indication, the rivers and creeks should finally get running by this time next week. 55mm in the next 7 days is promising...

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by Tassiedave » Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:19 pm

Today's temperatures in Tasmania : Larapuna 18.3, Launceston 17.4, Hobart 17.1 (5 degrees above avge), Devonport 16.9

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:20 pm

EC, Access G and CMC now projecting 80 to 100mm in the latest 10 day outlook for here :)

Locally, this year is starting to look like 1908 which was a swinging positive IOD and neutral El Nino. Only 51mm fell in the first 4 months in 1908 and then nearly 500mm fell in the next 6 months with the traditional flood and drought ocean signals not existing.

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by hillybilly » Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:56 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:20 pm
EC, Access G and CMC now projecting 80 to 100mm in the latest 10 day outlook for here :)

Locally, this year is starting to look like 1908 which was a swinging positive IOD and neutral El Nino. Only 51mm fell in the first 4 months in 1908 and then nearly 500mm fell in the next 6 months with the traditional flood and drought ocean signals not existing.
They collectively look good. GFS a bit too rainshadowed for my liking, but other models keener.

Really mild system to. Haven’t looked closely at Melbourne, but hobarts seven day forecast will deliver a week five degrees above average which has only happened once before in June :? One of those odd stats :P

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by Sean » Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:10 pm

Very mild period coming up indeed. Even a 19 in the forecast. Hopefully it doesn't stick around. Increased evaporation means that winter rain is less effective :|

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by hillybilly » Fri Jun 07, 2019 5:43 am

Min of 12C in the city and 8C here. Currently 5C at Mount Hotham and Falls Creek which are poking into the warmer air aloft. Not quite your usual winter weather for 5am :? Sign of the incoming surge of warmer damp weather that will dominate the week.

Progs still looking very encouraging for follow up falls. EC has about 40mm for here in FC, and falls around 100mm about the wetter parts of the ranges. It will be pretty much all rain, so good for runoff, but will make a mess of the early season snowfalls. Does turn colder by about Friday so some top up at the end of the event.

Fantastic system for southwest WA. Perth is now ahead of 2006 YTD so no longer the driest year at this point. The weather is becoming mighty wierd there with the onset of the fronts increasingly delayed, but occasional very big systems. This current one is odd as it’s synoptically not that strong but it’s drawn a huge plume of tropical moisture south which is making up for it. Peak falls south of Perth are nearing 100mm for the past 12 hours.

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by flyfisher » Fri Jun 07, 2019 8:47 am

Spectacular north west cloud band over WA. Almost forgotten what they look like.

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by Adam38 » Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:10 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 5:43 am
Min of 12C in the city and 8C here. Currently 5C at Mount Hotham and Falls Creek which are poking into the warmer air aloft. Not quite your usual winter weather for 5am :? Sign of the incoming surge of warmer damp weather that will dominate the week.

Progs still looking very encouraging for follow up falls. EC has about 40mm for here in FC, and falls around 100mm about the wetter parts of the ranges. It will be pretty much all rain, so good for runoff, but will make a mess of the early season snowfalls. Does turn colder by about Friday so some top up at the end of the event.

Fantastic system for southwest WA. Perth is now ahead of 2006 YTD so no longer the driest year at this point. The weather is becoming mighty wierd there with the onset of the fronts increasingly delayed, but occasional very big systems. This current one is odd as it’s synoptically not that strong but it’s drawn a huge plume of tropical moisture south which is making up for it. Peak falls south of Perth are nearing 100mm for the past 12 hours.
Perth is certainly drying out! The average rainfall is now only 730mm, it used to be 882mm.

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by StratoBendigo » Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:05 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:20 pm
EC, Access G and CMC now projecting 80 to 100mm in the latest 10 day outlook for here :)

Locally, this year is starting to look like 1908 which was a swinging positive IOD and neutral El Nino. Only 51mm fell in the first 4 months in 1908 and then nearly 500mm fell in the next 6 months with the traditional flood and drought ocean signals not existing.
1908 was notorious for some large and unusual snowfalls. Interestingly January 1908 had a particularly nasty heatwave in Vic. Sounds familiar...

Anyway, EC ramps up the expected rain for mid-week. 60mm could be a possibility. Not cold though. Late June might be quite snowy with the next LWT over us.

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by Sean » Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:05 am

The BOM has been slowly upping the precip totals, which is a good sign

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by hillybilly » Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:43 am

GFS3 and EC looking very wet this morning. Widespread 40-100mm falls for the week ahead and well above 100mm at the wettest spots in the mountains. Nearly all rain. Even post the big system on Wednesday the 850Ts are about 3C which suggests all rain below about 1600m and mostly rain to about 1900m or even higher. Turns colder late in the week so return of snow then. Going to be some pretty rapid streamrises, on Tuesday into Wednesday with possible record precipitable water values. These go past 30mm in the progs and could well touch 35mm. If the dynamics holds this will produce unusually heavy winter rainfall rates :?

Be good to crack average or better again for June which looks a pretty good chance. With a positive IOD in place and an almost El Niño (SOI is currently -7) any rain is good rain, as it could turn drier at any point. We’re “lucky” with this current setup as the MJO is coming through our region just at the same time a strong trough is stuck in the bight :D

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:27 pm

yes HB, the good old 'lucky' MJO is going to strike again :D

Nice extra stats SB on 1908. I hadn't looked into the snow and heat side of it.

It's quite fascinating to have a look at past extremes. Locally, here are the lowest 5 years of rainfall (1872 to present) and what the Pacific and Indian were doing.

347mm - 1967 Neutral IOD/El Nino
388mm - 2006 Neutral IOD/El Nino
391mm - 1982 El Nino
413mm - 1944 Neutral IOD/El Nino
414mm - 1914 El Nino

Locally , for over 147 years of data from the BoM site, it seems the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the main driver of dry extremes and not the Pacific or Indian oceans.

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by hillybilly » Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:46 am

Progs wound back a bit. Synoptics not quite as good, and the second part of the system later in the week squeezed a bit by the incoming high. Still looks good, with general 20-60mm falls and over 100mm about the wettest alpine sites. Very useful follow-up.

First part incoming for this evening. Quite light in the south, but solid falls about the northern slopes. Particularly the alps will get significant falls, though all rain :? Mild weather continuing, perhaps even warm in parts of the northwest and Gippsland for a couple of more days. BTW keep an eye on northern OZ. Probably 50:50 that we will set a new Australian record high maximum this week (current record is 37.9C at Bradshaw).

Wednesday looks heavy for most areas with unusually humid air. Precipitable water values go past 30mm, so pretty likely we will see records broken for humidity in June. That will be bad for the ski season :o
Locally , for over 147 years of data from the BoM site, it seems the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the main driver of dry extremes and not the Pacific or Indian oceans.
Problem is the SAM is a symptom or diagnostic rather than a driver or predictable mode. Also, the SAM in our region is influenced by ENSO and IOD with El Niño and positive IOD both tending to have positive SAM in our region in winter/spring. Adding to these the SAM is also trending more positive over time.

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by JasmineStorm » Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:16 am

hillybilly wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:46 am
Locally , for over 147 years of data from the BoM site, it seems the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the main driver of dry extremes and not the Pacific or Indian oceans.
Problem is the SAM is a symptom or diagnostic rather than a driver or predictable mode. Also, the SAM in our region is influenced by ENSO and IOD with El Niño and positive IOD both tending to have positive SAM in our region in winter/spring. Adding to these the SAM is also trending more positive over time.
IMO, that is a one dimensional view which is why Access S is flopping at the moment. Earlier in May it was the MJO phase followed by a mild stratospheric warming triggering SAM to plunge in late May giving the Alps a one in 20 year May snow event. Both IOD and El Nino were and are still neutral (IOD moving into positive) yet record May rain for parts of Victoria.

BoM have a nice climate driver diagram on the subject showing them as 'main influencers'. They also have an interesting quote "The contribution that the SAM makes to the climate variability in Australia and the apparent positive trend in the SAM are relatively recent discoveries and as such are still active areas of research".

My own area of research suggests it is the main driver of rainfall locally. Negative IOD's enhance the rainfall, sometimes to extreme levels ;)
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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by hillybilly » Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:34 pm

Rain starting to thicken up nicely ahead of the trough. Already nearly 20mm at Mt Buller, with 2-5mm along the northern side of the divide. Looks like it’s about to start raining in the Melbourne with a bit of thickening rain in the lee of the divide.

BTW a bit of instability tomorrow morning. Could well get the odd spark, particularly south of the divide. Is a very mild and quite humid airmass with the freezing level up around 8000 feet :o

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Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Post by hillybilly » Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:09 am

6mm overnight in FC and 2mm at Walkerville. Bit more than expected, which is always a nice way to start and event. Way too mild for the time of year. We’re down at Walkerville and didn’t even need the heater last night (which isn’t too normal at 100m poking into Bass Strait).

Few hours of showers and possibly the odd spark. It’s quite unstable this morning, with LI near 0 and TotTot in the low 50s. Be quite a thundery one if the sun came out :?

Next action on Wednesday. Looks pretty wild with record or near record June humidity streaming in with a 130+ knot nwly jet. The 850hPa winds are 50 to 60 knots so will be will be a period of gusty winds with the band of rain. Rainfall rates looks high for winter, though system won’t stick for a long time.

Ski resorts are getting badly affected by all this mild rain. Won’t look too good by Wednesday :o :(

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