Climate Outlook Accuracy

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

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Climate Outlook Accuracy

Post by Gordon » Fri May 31, 2019 2:59 pm

After some discussion in the regular weather threads, thought it might be useful to start some comparisons.

I don't intend this to be a 'bag the NCC' thread but I do think there needs to be a discussion about whether a bad forecast is better than no forecast. In other words, should forecast accuracy be a certain standard before an Outlook is released to the public with considerable fanfare? I believe no Outlook is preferable because even with the riders regarding accuracy, people largely go ahead and plan and act as if the Outlook were fact or at least very likely. Fair enough - the average person may ask why an Outlook is being trumpeted if it isn't very likely to come true? Here's the May 2019 effort:

Forecast issued 26 April:

Actual May rainfall:

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