Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

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hillybilly
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Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by hillybilly » Thu May 30, 2019 6:57 pm

Looks like winter will kick off with a strong frontal passage which will cut off into a large and deep low near the south Tasman Sea. Main feature looks like being cold with another shot of very cold air, with 850Ts dropping to about -4C. Will be showery in the south and ranges, and could tend to rain our east depending on where the main low forms. As it clears, could well see some cracking frosts. Progs are a bit jumpy so details not certain, so may be better or less good,

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by hillybilly » Fri May 31, 2019 5:28 am

Progs pretty similar to yesterday. Strong front for Sunday, though pretty moisture starved. Cold air then surges north in a deep southerly airstream with a few showery days. Freezing level drops to about 900m, so again good chance for snow at spots like Macedon, Trentham etc. probably a touch too warm for the Dandenongs, but that could change. The one thing that might help is that the low levels will struggle to warm much during the day so could drop snow levels lower. Then comes in a slow to clear swly airstream which advects in much warmer air so another significant drizzle event.

EC has mostly 5-15mm southern and mountain areas, but much heavier falls in the Yarra Ranges and East Gippsland where totals should peak around 50mm or more. Further, north, looks like some cracking frosts. Also suspect potential for a couple of very cold days with the solstice only a couple of weeks away and cloudy arvos. EC has Melbourne near 10C on Monday :D

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Gordon » Fri May 31, 2019 1:39 pm

Looking like things have moved a bit further east on the latest BOM 4 day chart; probably favouring eastern suburbs/ West Gippsland?

Still, a few mm to get June started.

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by hillybilly » Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:12 am

Progs edged the low back a bit west. Perhaps not quite as cold, but wetter. Solid falls for coastal area, more significant from east of about Melbourne. Could be quite heavy in east central, Yarra Ranges and East Gippsland where EC has local falls topping 50mm.

Cold, but looks like snow will mainly stay above about 800mm. Freezing levels don’t look like dropping much below 1000m. With these systems it’s always a trade off between the cold air pinching off and forming a low (which makes it warmer) and a more classic deep and long southerly fetch which makes it colder but drier.

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Tassiedave » Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:24 am

Meanwhile on the other side of the country 26 degrees is forecast in Perth today - not far off a June record.

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by StratoBendigo » Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:11 pm

Decent upgrade in EC tonight. There could be 10mm in it for us. A chilly few days coming up again....

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by hillybilly » Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:27 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:11 pm
Decent upgrade in EC tonight. There could be 10mm in it for us. A chilly few days coming up again....
Yeah, does look better. Forms a low not too far from Gippsland. The upper trough amplifies over us and we see showers build and tend to rain for central/north central Sunday arvo through Monday. The deepening low then pushes heavy rain into East Gippsland. Latest run has about 40mm in FC and local falls to near 60mm just north and east of the city. Not so much in the west and north, though should be a bit.

Very cold Monday under the rain with chilly 850Ts of about -3C. Wouldn’t be surprised if the city struggles to pass 10C (EC has a max of 10C). Snow levels look like dropping to about 800m, though being near the solstice and with persistent heavy rainfall and very low surface temperatures could see it drop locally much lower. I’ve see then types of systems drop snow to around 500m before as the falling snow steadily chills the surface layers to near zero allowing the snow line to drop. Would rule out a surprise snow flurry in the Dandenongs.

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by stevco123 » Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:35 pm

Ballarat had a decent snowfall a couple of years ago under a similar system. The same setup can produce in the Buxton, Thornton, Eildon region.

Plenty of videos on YouTube
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by hillybilly » Sun Jun 02, 2019 7:16 am

stevco123 wrote:
Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:35 pm
Ballarat had a decent snowfall a couple of years ago under a similar system. The same setup can produce in the Buxton, Thornton, Eildon region.

Plenty of videos on YouTube
The May 2000 event seemed to have this as a significant factor. It was a cold system, but the snow fell much heavier and lower in the subalpine valleys. I saw impressive accumulations around Buxton. The July 1995 event was similar with heavy snow in the Dandenongs with an 850T of -2 to -3C. I’m thinking this system might be a touch to warm for anything too low in Vic, but only a degree can make a big difference so might surprise. It does look to me like a significant event higher up, from about Trentham to the Blue Mountains (mainly above, about 700-800m).

Progs holding. System will slow down and focus an areas of heavy rain somewhere near Melbourne later today as the front starts to wave, before the deep low forms of the NSW coast. Melbourne only needs 11mm to score its wettest day of the year, which should be an easy get.

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Gordon » Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:49 am

For rain, WATL is looking the best it has for a few days, eastern Vic particularly but also just east of Ballarat (us) is looking better. Who would have thought, a last minute upgrade :).

Not sure about snow here, although I see on some snow forums they're getting excited about snow for the Blue Mountains and New England.

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Gordon » Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:56 am

hillybilly wrote:
Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:27 pm
I’ve see then types of systems drop snow to around 500m before as the falling snow steadily chills the surface layers to near zero allowing the snow line to drop. Would rule out a surprise snow flurry in the Dandenongs.
This sort of effect fascinates me HB, suspect it sometimes contributes to us getting more settled snow than the fundamentals/ forecasts would suggest, such as last Monday.

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Hawker » Sun Jun 02, 2019 12:38 pm

BOM now have a graziers warning out stating rain and not showers are forecast.
I wonder if this is a change of expected conditions for them.
Issued at 11:21 am EST on Sunday 2 June 2019.

Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, rain and fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop Sunday night and during Monday. Areas likely to be affected include the North Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts and parts of the Northern Country, North East, South West and Central forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by JasmineStorm » Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:37 pm

Latest Access C showing a wrap around outer convergence in the southerly flow :) Rainfall projections are a heap more than current forecasts for certain central areas overnight, drops off further north of the divide. BoM 4.20pm forecast will be interesting
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Hawker » Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:45 pm

Severe weather warning out now
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml

Sounds like snow bunnies will be happy

Looking at the radar and doppler the change coming in now seems to
be showing as a squally one.

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Gordon » Sun Jun 02, 2019 3:09 pm

Very 'thick' rain has hit here, small drops but very dense.

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by 93ben » Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:24 pm

The rain has finally hit Templestowe.
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by tonycynic » Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:28 pm

New forecast is out, colder and wetter. Enjoy your evening, Monday morning won’t be nice.

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Sean » Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:33 pm

tonycynic wrote:
Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:28 pm
New forecast is out, colder and wetter. Enjoy your evening, Monday morning won’t be nice.
An upgrade no less!

Waiting and watching now... Wouldn't it be great if we hit the June average in the first couple of days? :D

Can already feel the chill in the air after a fairly mild day.

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Skywalker » Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:58 pm

tonycynic wrote:
Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:28 pm
New forecast is out, colder and wetter. Enjoy your evening, Monday morning won’t be nice.
Guess who has tomorrow off work! :D
Hopefully this time there are no dramas in the office & I can actually get out & do a snow chase.
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by StratoBendigo » Sun Jun 02, 2019 6:21 pm

Light rain for the past hour. A chilly 7c as well. It's cold and I love it!

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