VIC - Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12 2019

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hillybilly
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Sat May 04, 2019 6:17 pm

Classic winter pattern with a strong front for Wednesday followed by a second front around Friday which looks like forming a deep low. Uppers get very chilly (dropping to around -3C) so widespread snow in the alps, potentially heavy.

Progs been jumping a bit with the placement of the low which will be critical for totals, but currently looks like moderate to heavy falls for much of southern and mountain areas. With a still warm bay, a swly cyclonic system could produce big falls in the Yarra Ranges etc. latest EC has nearly 100mm for here, which would be very welcome.
StratoBendigo
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Sun May 05, 2019 8:23 pm

Probably 15-30mm here, and a nice follow up to the 28mm last week. Looks quite decent and rather wintry too later this week :D
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hillybilly
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Mon May 06, 2019 6:47 am

Progs slowly winding back :( Two strong front, but system doesn’t cut off now. Will be a wave low in the westerlies, but this doesn’t fully split off so the system moves through quicker. Still moderate to heavy falls in parts of the south, but general pattern more 5-20mm north, 15-30mm south, with heaviest falls near the Otways, South Gippsland, Yarra Ranges and northeast. Very cold air for May, with 850Ts dropping to about -3C, so snow level dropping to around 900m. Handy follow-up.

I do fear the western plains, Mallee and East Gippsland will struggle again.
Skywalker
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Mon May 06, 2019 2:12 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Sun May 05, 2019 8:23 pm
I do fear the western plains, Mallee and East Gippsland will struggle again.
In other words the drought looks likely to continue for us. :(
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Sean
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Mon May 06, 2019 5:44 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 6:47 am
Progs slowly winding back :( Two strong front, but system doesn’t cut off now. Will be a wave low in the westerlies, but this doesn’t fully split off so the system moves through quicker. Still moderate to heavy falls in parts of the south, but general pattern more 5-20mm north, 15-30mm south, with heaviest falls near the Otways, South Gippsland, Yarra Ranges and northeast. Very cold air for May, with 850Ts dropping to about -3C, so snow level dropping to around 900m. Handy follow-up.

I do fear the western plains, Mallee and East Gippsland will struggle again.
Noticed that the projected rain totals have plummeted. Annoying.

Hopefully it turns around.
Gordon
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Mon May 06, 2019 8:36 pm

Bit of an upgrade for us in the latest models however.

So the downgrade/upgrade ride continues - after last week, at least I know upgrade can actually deliver!
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hillybilly
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Mon May 06, 2019 9:29 pm

Gordon wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 8:36 pm
Bit of an upgrade for us in the latest models however.

So the downgrade/upgrade ride continues - after last week, at least I know upgrade can actually deliver!
Yeah, they look much better tonight. GFS3 and EC both got about 50mm for here. Could well have a MTD by the weekend of 100mm if they come good. Surface is nice and damp here, but need some big totals to replenish the soil moisture.
JasmineStorm
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Tue May 07, 2019 11:05 am

Access R also jumping on the bandwagon with a very productive 72 hours ahead with the latest 18z run. If Access R and EC verifies, I'm going to smash through the May rainfall average already. The vertical temperature differences from 850 to 500 hPa on Thursday evening are quite large through central areas. The Thursday system is becoming quite unstable due to the very cold temps of the upper trough.
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occluded
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Tue May 07, 2019 1:47 pm

Thanks JS and HB, that's a bit more like it, after the semi-disappointing result for here last week.

OCF ensemble has upgraded here to 28mm for Thursday so fingers are crossed.
StratoBendigo
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Tue May 07, 2019 2:42 pm

Another 20-30 mm would go a long way to transform the countryside here.

I still think AXS-R is a bit optimistic though.

Some suggestions of possible storms with tonight's cold front.
Chritc
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Tue May 07, 2019 4:44 pm

Access-R latest has upgraded again for areas East of Melbourne. 15-25mm generally overnight and early tomorrow with another 25-35mm coming through late Thursday.
Sean
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Tue May 07, 2019 4:56 pm

Some good falls on the SA/Vic border and the BOM forecast has improved.
Wilko
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Tue May 07, 2019 5:29 pm

Chritc wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 4:44 pm
Access-R latest has upgraded again for areas East of Melbourne. 15-25mm generally overnight and early tomorrow with another 25-35mm coming through late Thursday.

Same here ;
Nice ro see the models playing ball for once
Looking at 30-50mm if we get lucky

The Bay is currently 16-17c so there may be potential for good falls With the SW later in the sequence
Wilko
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Tue May 07, 2019 5:33 pm

EC has upgraded again for 55mm
StratoBendigo
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Tue May 07, 2019 5:54 pm

Nasty duststorm tore through Mildura this afternoon. Not good.
tonycynic
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Tue May 07, 2019 6:52 pm

Rain is on the radar now. Looking forward to a wet week.
JasmineStorm
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Tue May 07, 2019 7:13 pm

Mt Gambier 22mm. Based on the latest 00z run, that is double any model projected except for Access C that had around 20mm. Hopefully that trend continues for round 1 overnight.
Skywalker
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Tue May 07, 2019 7:43 pm

tonycynic wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 6:52 pm
Rain is on the radar now. Looking forward to a wet week.
Hope that's rain and not dust!

Cleaned the gutters out when I arrived home from work in anticipation. Really need this one to come off and put an end to this constant drought here.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Sean
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Tue May 07, 2019 8:06 pm

Some good images of the dust storm: https://www.9news.com.au/wild-weather/v ... 23e64ccac0

Very ominous. Wouldn't want to breathe that in... Can you get tetanus via the lungs?
Wilko
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Tue May 07, 2019 8:47 pm

Like a school line developed in south of the bay
Ben down the hatches guys the wind could be wild at the initial stages
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