Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

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hillybilly
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Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by hillybilly » Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:45 am

Another record breaking warm spell with dry conditions continuing. Warmest days likely to be Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday when plenty of places will approach or break late season records. Still no sign of meaningful rainfall so sites (including Melbourne) which are having their driest start to a year on record will continue setting new records :(

Best prospects for rain look like later today, late Sunday and mid next week but each could deliver zero or dribbles.

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:45 am

18Z GFS has the front through a little earlier on Sunday. Still next to no rain.

The total lack of moisture and cloud over Northern WA has been the heat engine over the past few months for us. Interestingly, the Stirling Ranges in WA might get snow this Friday night. Potentially the earliest reported snowfall there for any given year (current record is April 20, 1970, which also had high temp records broken in Adelaide that same week).

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by Adam38 » Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:25 am

The wind is howling here, gusts to 95kmh at the airport too.

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by hillybilly » Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:56 am

Adam38 wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:25 am
The wind is howling here, gusts to 95kmh at the airport too.
Nasty fire weather numbers with the DF at 10 and curing at 100% :o hope people stay safe.

Here it’s only moderate winds, and things are green though starting to dry again with this relentless warmth.

Btw late season high minimum records at Melbourne and Adelaide, while Cape Otways 24.3C is a April record. Some ok rain showing up in southeast SA. Hoping Progs have this one wrong and it holds itself together... (but doubt it).

The obs for snow in the Stirling Ranges are very thin, but Trove throws up many significant snow events in the past (some great reading). I would be surprised if they haven’t seen snow before in March or early April given the highest peak is just shy of 1100m and same latitude as Canberra.

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by Adam38 » Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:14 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:56 am
Adam38 wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:25 am
The wind is howling here, gusts to 95kmh at the airport too.
Nasty fire weather numbers with the DF at 10 and curing at 100% :o hope people stay safe.

Here it’s only moderate winds, and things are green though starting to dry again with this relentless warmth.

Btw late season high minimum records at Melbourne and Adelaide, while Cape Otways 24.3C is a April record. Some ok rain showing up in southeast SA. Hoping Progs have this one wrong and it holds itself together... (but doubt it).

The obs for snow in the Stirling Ranges are very thin, but Trove throws up many significant snow events in the past (some great reading). I would be surprised if they haven’t seen snow before in March or early April given the highest peak is just shy of 1100m and same latitude as Canberra.

My old neighbours in Perth always drove the 400kms to the Stirling Range whenever snow was forecast. It’s rare outside of winter but I remember November 1992 snow event, Perth had a lot of hail that day too.

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by Tassiedave » Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:34 pm

Maximum temps in Tas today: Campania 29.8, Hobart Airport 29.1, Hobart 28.7, Bushy Park 27.6, Fingal 25.4, Launceston 24.9

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by Onetahuti » Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:49 pm

The max here today was 31.3°C, overnight minimum was 23.1°C.

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by Wilko » Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:45 pm

I trust all is well

Hi guys just having a quick look at the radar it looks like the cloud is thickening ahead of what looks like to be a possible squall line keep a close ion boy we need it

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by jimmyay » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:35 pm

Drove right around the bay last weekend and got the ferry across from queenscliff to Portsea. Geelong down to the bellarine is totally bleached and parched. The Mornington Peninsula is a little better in part - well, new grass growth is at last evident due to showers a week or 2 ago. But it’s a case of spot the green really. Vic is so dry. Flew over to adelaide couple weeks ago. Vic and SA look so arid from the air right now.

Also particularly noticeable last week on my travels was the large extent of die back of coastal vegetation from Portsea up to rosebud on the peninsula. The hardy bushes are drying out completey - not seen that before.

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by Tassiedave » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:42 pm

Rain falling over much of Tasmania at the moment. 36mm at Strahan the highest total so far.

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by hillybilly » Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:12 am

0.4mm in the gauge. More like a mid summer front that a mid autumn one :roll:

Cooler day and a bit, and then back to record warmth. Should see more late season heat records the coming weekend. Possibly a few showers later on Sunday, but just as likely to be another fine one.

Here’s the Melbourne rainfall accumulation. That’s a record dry start. Hopefully that line ticks up soon as we are currently headed towards a sub 200mm total :( :?
Image

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by Tassiedave » Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:34 am

Rain overnight in Tas: Strahan 56mm, Lake Augusta 39mm, Judbury 26mm, Wynyard 16mm, Deloraine 15mm, Hobart 8.8 mm,Launceston 6.2 mm

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by Gordon » Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:01 am

Just back from NE Vic - totally different picture from about Myrtleford north & east. Healthy stream flows and thick green grass; legacy of a 5 inch autumn break in late March and a few showers since. My farmer mates up there are delighted. Some follow up soon would be handy though.

Bone dry back home.

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:01 pm

Not much to report on from here, very boring. Underground water is still flowing strong, so plenty of water for the property. Models picked up that monster upper trough very well but got its position wrong a week back with it propagating early towards W.A now. Currently looks awesome on the sat pic, should imagine that will create a southern ocean beast by Saturday.


Seeing some interesting signals on SAM and MJO. Got the Autumn break here in May for years 2015 and 2016, seems like this might be lining up again for May. viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2396&p=109842#p109842

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:36 pm

Extreme surprised to see “How Dry” the Country is
Watched the water level @ Lake Eildon dropping before our eyes.
Orange and Lemon with very curled leaves. Dust and dry besides the mud flats being left from the dropping water levels.

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by hillybilly » Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:02 am

Back on a warming trend ahead of late season heat records tomorrow. Sunday looks mildly interesting, but big spray across the models. Fairly sharp upper trough with weak surface trough moves cross the state middle of the arvo. Looks quite thundery, though most activity east of the line Melbourne to Bendigo. Looking like patchy 2-10mm falls with possible locally heavier falls. The system is fading, so could die on our door step or hold it together and surprise :?:

Stronger fronts middle of next week. EC, CMC and ACCESS have moderate to heavy falls central and east. GFS2/3 been on and off.

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by hillybilly » Sat Apr 20, 2019 6:53 am

Hot one today. Pretty sure 30C in Melbourne will be a late season record, so could well have our third record in a week :( Similar tomorrow, but probably a touch cooler.

Thundery change late tomorrow. Huge range across the models, but some are showing moderate (EC/UK) and heavy falls (ACCESS and CMC). Systems is weak at the surface, but there is a good upper trough. Does look like the focus will split between northwest NSW and central/eastern Vic.

Showery mid week, but mainly slips through to our south.

So need this. Am back to watering the veggies and new lawn in what should be about the wettest month of the year :?

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:36 am

Pretty hit pink and bit breezy @ FTG
Mansfield forecast 90% 10 to 20mm. Very much needed hope it comes through,
Not good for tenters..

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by Tassiedave » Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:01 am

Beyond today ACCESS G suggests a massive HIGH will sit over South East Australia for days on end.

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Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Post by hillybilly » Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:03 am

Finally a half interesting day. Strong upper trough approaching while low level moisture slowly increases with north to northeast winds. Instability peaks over east central through the northeast with showers and storms likely to fire from about 4pm. Moderate, perhaps heavy falls (locally). The rain/not-much-rain boundary sits somewhere near the line Melbourne to Bendigo so will be another winner and loser event. Fingers crossed it delivers for most, as the current dry is shocking and locally record breaking :(

Was done the Mornington Peninsula and it looks like mid summer down there so even the colder and wetter spots are struggling :?

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