Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

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hillybilly
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Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by hillybilly » Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:59 pm

Impressive cold front showing up for late Thursday into Friday with a long southwest fetch and deep cold air. Warm Thursday, but winds picking up and the chance of the odd shower. Front comes through Friday with a band of showers/storms/rain and then we have 24-36 hours of showery conditions. 850Ts drop to around -2C so snow will fall on the alps, and potentially down to the higher sub-alpine locations (such as Mt Macedon). Expect a bit of accumulation at Lake Mt, Baw Baw etc. Expecting lots of coldies, with local hail/thunder etc later Friday and Saturday :D

The system doesn't have much of an infeed, but should still produce lots of showers in southern and mountain areas. Expect east central will see 15-40mm, with good falls also around the Otways, South Gippsland and the northeast.

The usual dry spots will struggle (without the moisture infeed).

Second front on Monday with more showers.

Of course, there is still the potential for a downgrade, but currently looks promising and GFS3 and EC have hardly budged on consecutive runs (if anything they are looking a bit better).

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:51 pm

Thanks, not wanting the candles on the cake to get wet, but tipping most with empty tanks won't be complaining too much about muddy shoes.

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by hillybilly » Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:20 am

Models upgraded overnight. EC now has 40mm in FC. That would get us close to our March average if it comes off :D Other models all showing 25-50mm, so pretty tight cluster.

Most of Vic is still 50+% off its March total so anything that falls will be very welcome.

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by Macedonian » Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:21 am

Second frost for the month at Macedonia.
Just goes to show how dry it is.
Still, it feels lovely to walk in the garden and feel the crisp icy coldness.
1C here.

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:22 am

Wish they could predict it..
main web site is saying about 7mm for the noted thread period.
Doesn't help for planning.. and it's only 3 days out..

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:17 pm

00Z GFS reckons just 5mm here, and 10mm for much of Melbourne. EC has a very pessimistic 1mm here.

YTD is currently 26mm. Driest first qtr of a year since 2004.

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by Rivergirl » Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:13 pm

Thanks for the update hillybilly. Going to Mt Buffalo on Saturday, sounds like it's going to snow there and be very cold. Wednesday going to Mt Hotham. I wonder if the front on Monday extends to Wednesday and Thursday

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by hillybilly » Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:29 pm

Rivergirl wrote:
Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:13 pm
Thanks for the update hillybilly. Going to Mt Buffalo on Saturday, sounds like it's going to snow there and be very cold. Wednesday going to Mt Hotham. I wonder if the front on Monday extends to Wednesday and Thursday
It clears up for mid week, but yep will be snow on the weekend. Buffalo often struggles, but should still get something. I look forward to the photos :)

Btw watch for a run at the soft Victorian record March minimum record of -4.3C. There has been a distinct lack of serious March cold outbreaks since we’ve had all the alpine AWSs. The Feb record is -3.9C and the April record is -8C which would suggest a -5 or -6C is a more realistic record. The very coldest air comes through on Saturday morning into Sunday morning (the 30th and 31st so should give it a good shot).

Latest models not much changed, perhaps a little better overall.

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by Rivergirl » Wed Mar 27, 2019 9:56 pm

Thanks so much for that hillybilly. It would be good to have snow with a partly clear sky and stars. I know there will be clouds around at night but hoping not completely. Well that looks like it is going to be really cold lol

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by hillybilly » Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:13 pm

Models holding or upgrading. EC which has been very consistent has 30mm plus most coastal areas and through the northeast. Approaching 50mm in the wetter spots. Showers start tomorrow arvo about the ranges and become widespread from the west reaching Melbourne around 5pm. Heavy snow in the alps, though will be followed by a warm frontal type feature so most will get washed away.

Thinking about 40mm here. Would hope most areas south of about Bendigo will get at least 2-5mm, and areas south of the divide at least 5-10mm. As is usual, some of the drier spots will struggle.

Felt like a long time since we had a classic winter front :D

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by flyfisher » Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:36 pm

Moisture starved front will explode once it interacts with the QLD moisture over NE Victoria - already small storms popping up around there. Afraid for us the moisture looks like not getting here with this first front. Rain shadow looks likely too.

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by Skywalker » Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:23 pm

Ho hum, more windy filth & no rain. :roll:
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by wolfcat » Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:24 pm

The cool change is through Geelong already.

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by StratoBendigo » Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:39 pm

No rain. Just wind, dust, and filth. Several more months of this garbage imo.

Incidentally, bad grassfire near Ballarat is already destroying property: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victo ... 645bd4bcf4

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by Adam38 » Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:45 pm

The wind is crazy here!! Very dusty and smoky. Those fires near Ballarat look nasty.

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by Horts » Fri Mar 29, 2019 5:31 pm

Dust and windy here too. Bay is a mess!

Really hope we get something :?

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by stevco123 » Fri Mar 29, 2019 6:29 pm

Cold front that just came through is exactly that (COLD), but that's it? C'mon... that was weak in terms of rainfall.

Waiting for the southwesterly flow
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by Horts » Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:16 pm

Surely this isn't it? Bone dry.

Models had heaviest falls here around 10pm. Will keep the faith. Please rain. Lawn/straw mowed and begging for it.

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by StratoBendigo » Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:23 pm

No rain so far and it doesn't even look like it will at all now. Long range forecast grim too.

The drought rolls on....

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Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Post by snowfall » Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:35 pm

Dry here as well. There was a line of showers back near Ballarat, which unfortunately disintegrated. Not feeling very hopeful, as I think we will struggle to get much of anything this weekend. East central parts will probably still do ok though. The temp has dropped quite a bit. We reached a high of 27c today and now 13c and falling. Still hanging out for a decent widespread rain event - it has been months now!

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