VIC - Humid with showers and storms, followed by strong front: March 22-26 2019

[weathergasm]

What I assume is a trough is sitting west of Melbourne (in a line from Swan Hill to Lorne) - winds to the east of the trough are somewhat humid northeasterlies, while winds to the west of it are drier westerlies. If this was a normal year I would be on the lookout for cells popping up in the area these winds converge at around 2-4pm. BOM are pointing toward the possibility of a storm in Melbourne this evening, so we’ll see I suppose!

[Wilko]

So nice to hear that sound of rain
Highest daily amount so far this year is 3.6 mm ytd 18mm so desperately needed
The largest trees in Highett reserve are not being very well cared for and I don’t think will recover
Big limbs are touching ground and falling off very dangerous to walk under

Apparently the driest start to a year in Melbourne since 1965. I haven’t double checked but sounds about right. Also about the hottest start so stress on trees must be intense.

We’ve done much better here but still a shocker. Our YTD is about 100mm, while the average to this point is about 200mm. Just 5km west of here the total YTD is about 60mm so we’ve got really lucky with three events which peaked more or less near us (20mm from the Feb storm, 20mm from drizzle couple of weeks back and 10mm last 24 hours).

HB 100mm seems like a far away dream around here
1mm this morning and already evaporated



Looks like another 1-3mm locally from that band. I wasn’t really expecting anything much today so a bonus

[hillybilly]

Here comes the change, racing up the bay. Has a few Cu on it, but doesn’t look that threatening

Going to get blowy about the bay as it hits.

Progs more or less holding for the next few days. Spots like Macedon and the northeast should do ok. Elsewhere less so. Later next week is looking promising with a strong front and perhaps even a half decent cold outbreak

[Dane]

Still very dry around the Ballarat area where I now live. Had 0.7mm's early this morning in Sebastopol the first rain for 10 days.
No rain at all at the BOM Ballarat airport site which is about 10kms North of here.
They are still sitting on just 21.4mm's for the year to date and need about another 10mm's to avoid it being the driest first 3 months of the year
in over 100 years of records.

[Macedonian]

What elevation are you at Dane? Good to have another member in the central highlands.

[Dane]

420 metres above sea level Macedonian not the highest part of Ballarat some suburbs are over 500m.
Still high enough to get some snow flurries in an extreme cold outbreak.

[Macedonian]

Cool, will look forward to your obs

[Australis(Shell3155)]

What's on the cards for tonight ?

[Adam38]

A few towers going up to the west of me.

[Tassiedave]

A Severe Weather warning has been issued for the entire state of Tasmania for Strong Winds and Thunderstorms

[Didjman]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in Central, Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland, Wimmera and parts of East Gippsland Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:32 pm Sunday, 24 March 2019.
Strong winds tonight mostly with storms.

Plan Image
A strong cold front associated with a deepening low over the Southern Ocean is expected to enter western Victoria tonight and cross the remainder of the State overnight and early on Monday, introducing a vigorous westerly airstream across Victoria.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are expected to develop this evening and overnight, mainly affecting elevated parts of the State.
Peak wind gusts up to 120 km/h are possible over the Alpine peaks overnight.
Local thunderstorms are expected to extend across the State overnight and have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts of 90 to 100 km/h. The thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near or just ahead of the cold front.
Damaging wind gusts are expected to contract to the coast and Alpine Peaks during Monday morning then will gradually ease during the afternoon.
Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Shepparton, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne, Wangaratta and Traralgon.

[Jake Smethurst]

Pretty strong forcing and volatile atmosphere this evening, wouldn't be surprised to see some storms persist into the night, including over the Melbourne area. They'll pack a punch in-terms of wind too. Already development across several parts of the state. Might be an interesting night.

[hillybilly]

Looks like a good 24 hours coming up for the northeast and central ranges, then far south such as the Otways. Rest of the state will struggle and be more hit miss. Looks like strong rainshadowing with unstable conditions but minimal upslide. The cold air comes through with a westerly, so again won’t be much good for much of the state.

Thinking about 10mm here. Could get double or half that depending on luck.

Nice system brewing for Friday into Saturday. Starting to feel a bit more like a normal weather pattern, even if the rainfall has been sparse so far

[Harley34]

Consistent winds here and i feel the trough has the remants from the NW cyclone near Dampier and the inland low and there looks to be a nice gradient...

[Gordon]

Current STW (border to Ballarat) has a heavy rainfall warning, as well as warnings for hail and wind.

Would have thought the storms are too fast moving for rainfall to accumulate to warning thresholds?

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Hope it's decent, as would take a good storm to wake me...

[James]

hmm i will wait and see what happens, seem to be dying so far by the time they hit the metro area

[Dane]

Very active storm about 70kms to the SW of here. Lightning every one or 2 seconds.

NOT moving in this direction though heading SE towards the surf coast.

[James]

why is it all dying before it hits melbourne?

[Chritc]

Subsidence as the storms come over the ranges. Should start to see some make it over in the next band as the winds turn slightly more westerly, however this will probably favor the usual areas down the peninsula. Melbourne itself is more likely to see damaging winds rather than rain as the next band approaches.