Another long warm spell, with showers. March 15-23

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snowfall
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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by snowfall » Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:24 am

1.7mm overnight with the drizzle. Another foggy morning now.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Macedonian » Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:47 am

First wet mist in ages here last night.
We still get plenty of misty nights but they have lately been dry.
2mm

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Gordon » Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:56 am

2.5mm in our gauge this morning - similarly unusual for us to measure so much from drizzle/ fog.

After HB's reference to tree drip, I notice our pond has about an inch more water than a few days ago, so this really could be doing some good in the forests nearby. Hoping all this moisture can be put to further use in a proper upcoming rain event, but will take anything in the meantime!

StratoBendigo
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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:11 am

It looks like we'll be lucky to get 5mm in the coming days.

Farmers are now de-stocking because the dams are empty and water is scarce. Even the brown grass is turning to dust.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:04 pm

The monsoon gyre has spun a tropical cyclone peak hour. GFS showing two cat 5's at the same time on Saturday morning with Trevor and Veronica.

IMO for us, it all comes down to the stength of the ridge and where Trevor and Veronica are positioned. I think one thing is almost certain, some very dry areas of OZ are about to see flooding rains.
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StratoBendigo
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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Mar 20, 2019 4:11 pm

I'm frankly not optimistic. Nothing much in the foreseeable future for Northern Vic.

I tend to think nothing much in the gauge until June or July.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Gordon » Wed Mar 20, 2019 5:27 pm

Latest BOM 4 dayer looks good, with an apparent north-west link to Cyclone Veronica with our front on Sunday.

However the latest BOM forecast locally is underwhelming for rainfall totals :? .

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Tassiedave » Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:05 pm

Maximum temp today Launceston was 27.9 degrees, 5.3 degrees above average.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Tassiedave » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:41 am

It didn't get below 18 degrees in Launceston last night. Forecast upgraded to 10 - 20 mm today.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by StratoBendigo » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:13 am

I quite like the look of this morning's EC forecast for next week. Definitely an upgrade.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:01 am

Another thick fog overnight with mizzle. 0.2mm in the gauge in the open, but again very damp among the trees. We've picked up 1.4mm in fog and mizzle the last three nights. Not earth-shattering, but something to break-up the monotony of endless dry :(

Showers a chance now for the next few days. Sunday into Monday looks good near the coast and about the northeast. I'm not overly confident for the Dandenongs, but would hope for 10-25mm. We're about 70mm below the March average, so current an another awful month locally :?

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Adam38 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:07 am

I’m sitting on 18mm YTD out here, paddocks have turned to dust just outside of town.
Off topic, Cyclone Veronica off W.A has intensified at an incredible rate this morning, from tropical low to Cat 4 over the
last 24 hours.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by StratoBendigo » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:13 am

Adam38 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:07 am
I’m sitting on 18mm YTD out here, paddocks have turned to dust just outside of town.
Off topic, Cyclone Veronica off W.A has intensified at an incredible rate this morning, from tropical low to Cat 4 over the
last 24 hours.
It looks like 2 cyclones could impact the Australian coast simultaneously on Saturday - TC Trev near Borroloola (just like TC Kathy in March 1984), and Veronica near Karratha on the same day. Veronica looks like it'll sit on the coast for 3 days and then buzz off due-West into the Indian Ocean.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by snowfall » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:28 pm

More mist and drizzle this morning, which left 1.1mm in the gauge and gives a total of 3.3mm for the last couple of days. Doesn’t do a lot but at least puts a brief pause on things drying out further. Good to see a slight upgrade in EC, though would expect some changes as we get closer. We all need some proper rain!

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:25 pm

Smokey, humid warm one in the Dandenongs. Getting over this non-stop warmth...

Should finally seem instability spread more widely tomorrow with the odd shower and storm (widespread out east). Similar for Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday looking better across the models - most southern areas 10-20mm, and large falls on the northeast ranges (EC has locally 50-100mm). Won't be a lot out west, but should be a bit at least.

Hoping late next week comes off - EC has TC Trevor getting caught by a strong front :o

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Tassiedave » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:23 pm

Upper Blessington (30km from Launceston) has had 53 mm of rain since 3pm. Launceston 0 mm. Launceston reached 27.8 degrees today.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with showers. March 15-23

Post by Macedonian » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:03 pm

That big rumbly storm is doing it's best to miss me :(

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