VIC - March 9-15 2019: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

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hillybilly
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VIC - March 9-15 2019: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by hillybilly » Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:04 am

Another week of toughs and fronts, but they continue to be moisture starved. Moisture is coming in from the Indian Ocean at the mid and upper levels, but low level moisture remains an issue.

The weekend starts with a trough which slowly develops southeast. Strong front then comes up for Tuesday and a second front for Thursday. Will be showery in the south, particular Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and then Thursday, with the chance of the odd storms. Earlier could also be some thunderies and showers about the northeast and east. Totals will add up around the Otways and South Gippsland where there could be up to 25mm, but elsewhere much less unless something unexpected happens :(

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by hillybilly » Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:19 am

Progs lost interest :roll: Not good. A few days back they had widespread 5-20mm falls, now they have widespread 0-1mm falls.

Meanwhile smoky days continue and the huge fires out east just get bigger :(

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by Didjman » Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:10 am

HB, the sky is full of CirroCu here atm. Possibility of something later??

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by Didjman » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:13 pm

Didjman wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:10 am
HB, the sky is full of CirroCu here atm. Possibility of something later??
Radar looking pretty good out west!

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by Adam38 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:27 pm

Windy and very dusty here... so over it...

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by Dane » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:44 pm

Just starting to Rain here in Ballarat. Radar looking pretty good so may get a few mm's out of it.
Need it just 18mm's YTD so far. :)

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by tonycynic » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:50 pm

Wow, wasn't expecting that on the radar.

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:14 pm

Wind picked up about hour ago.
And wow that Radar looks good.

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by snowfall » Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:16 pm

Yes there’s a bit more on the radar than I was expecting too. A bit of spitting rain here at the moment. Wind from the west has picked up as well.

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by StratoBendigo » Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:20 pm

Raining mud here, along with strong SWly winds and a dropping temp. I wasn't really expecting this to be honest. Quite an active front for Early March. -ve AAO doing its thing I suppose....

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by snowfall » Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:19 pm

Didn't last very long, but scored 1.3mm. Looked heavier on the radar than it actually was, but certainly better than nothing. Temperature has dropped to 16c.

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by Didjman » Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:58 pm

0.5mm here, temp 17.3C here atm.

Re my previous post re cirrocu, least I got something :D

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by Gordon » Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:07 pm

3mm of rain here that wasn't in the forecast at all. Long time since we had a pleasant surprise like that! (Usually it's been the opposite...) Locally some 4-5mm falls too.

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by Tassiedave » Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:31 pm

I think another temperature record fell today with Roebourne with 48.1 recording Australia's hottest recorded March temperature

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by hillybilly » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:22 pm

Tassiedave wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:31 pm
I think another temperature record fell today with Roebourne with 48.1 recording Australia's hottest recorded March temperature
Yep, a new National autumn record high :( Can we please start to break some cold ones :?

0.6mm here.EC picked it well.. ok falls out west but system fell apart as it crossed the state. Good to see some ok falls also in the lower northeast.

Looks like a couple of showery days in the south, but ok falls really confined to the coastal strip. Synoptics look good and low level moisture is ok, but just doesn’t look like it will deliver. Kinda out of luck atm, but hoping for a surprise.

Could get thundery in a week if EC and ACCESS are to be believed.

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by Macedonian » Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:23 pm

A surprise 2.5mm here since yesterday morning.
We went to the fantastic ChillOut festival at Daylesford yesterday and boy was it dry out there.
Its even brown and shocking through gods country (Trentham-Lyonville-Ballarto) If it is dry there it is dry everywhere.
It has been a pleasant week as far as max temps go, nothing higher than 20C at my placesince last Tuesday.
I hope that spells the end of the hot weather.

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by stevco123 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:30 pm

Went for a walk earlier and was surprised how green it actually is still down here. No signs of a drought, just a typical warm summer. Currently it seems like someone flicked a switch and turned the weather to autumn, 10 days early. Loving it as you know you'll get a good night's rest due to the milder mornings.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:52 am

Nice cooler weather this week. But warming up again and days on end of 30c+ from Saturday onwards. Not good. Although some hints of a decent cold outbreak after March 25 according to some forecast models...

MJO has failed miserably ending any chance of rain this month.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

NSW has turned into a dustbowl:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-12/ ... d/10876716

Looking at the strong possibility of another El-Nino and +ve IOD so I can't see an end to this until 2020.

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by hillybilly » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:51 pm

Looks like about 5mm at home today. My gauge looks to have a leaf or something similar in it, so will need to check the manual gauge when I get home. MTD about 20m (March average is just shy of 100mm, on track for another shocker :roll:). Looks like locally 5-10mm, so gives things a little drink ahead of more warmth.

Out and about in the hills its terribly dry. There's a creek near us that never dried up in the worst of the Millennium drought, but its getting very close now.

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Re: March 9-15: Troughs and a couple of fronts but will it rain?

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:53 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:52 am

MJO has failed miserably ending any chance of rain this month.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml
Today's EC ensemble 12z run on the tropics suggests otherwise and is in line with its MJO projection over the Maritime continent. The projected Coral sea depression looks very interesting :)
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