VIC - Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

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hillybilly
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VIC - Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by hillybilly » Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:54 am

Some interest in the next few days with a trough lingering over Victoria, and a strong front coming up from the Southern Ocean. They don't quite meet, but the trough should deliver some patchy showers and storms over mainly the north and east, and then the strong front will drop a band of showers, locally heavy through southern areas overnight Tuesday through Wednesday. Progs showing locally 10-20mm, though have been tending to back off as the event gets closer :roll: Will turn cold on Wednesday, with snow possible around Baw Baw etc. Snow levels look like briefly falling to near 1000m, though that could change.

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by Adam38 » Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:07 am

I am expecting next to nothing here... sitting on 18mm YTD here 😩

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by Gordon » Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:43 am

At least that seems to be almost it for the heat. Besides today, when we might briefly scrape 30 here after a cold start, can't see any more 30 degree days for the next 10 days or so, and cool/cold nights are back too with single digit minimums dominating.

Even if 'hot' weather comes back later in the month, the duration of daytime heat will be capped by rapidly shortening daylight hours, matched of course by a progressively lower sun angle.

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:25 pm

Another stinker today. Currently 36c and humid. Some Cumulus going up so perhaps something later today.

As for Summer 2018/19 - Good Riddance and never come back. You destroyed half my garden and turned everything to dust.

Edit - wife called and it's raining at home. Nice.

Edit again - Smashing down rain. Yay!

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by Didjman » Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:56 pm

Tracker showing multiple simultaneous cgs around Bendigo

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:20 pm

Didjman wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:56 pm
Tracker showing multiple simultaneous cgs around Bendigo
Yes, it's been a very active 30 minutes. Very sporadic rainfall though. I reckon 10mm+ here. But just 0.2mm at Airport AWS (which always misses out).

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:34 pm

Hit 35c here just before with a bit more moisture in the air and a quick rumble to the north. Feels like the hottest day of the last week. Keeping an eye on any rogue fire starter CG's from above.

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by Didjman » Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:13 pm

Got to 35.3 here (home) at 3:30

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by snowfall » Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:10 pm

Just 30c as a max here, though warm enough! A few spots of rain but nothing to register in the gauge. A brief shower travelled to our south and across to Melbourne airport but just missed here. Unfortunately, looks like fairly limited rain for us over the next couple of days, if any. So it’s a case of waiting for the next event - it has been a long time between drinks. Almost forgotten what a day of rain feels like. :|

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by hillybilly » Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:10 pm

27C here today. Almost got a shower, but not to be.

Another day tomorrow, but not confident. Maybe a shower.

Wednesday looks the best chance, but each run seems to drop totals further. Now at the point where it could just about disappear come tomorrow morning at this rate :roll:

Flew up and back to Canberra today and landscape is just awful. All parched. Multiple big fires evident over eastern Vic.

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by Didjman » Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:39 pm

I noticed earlier, more lightning out east and more fires appearing

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by Sean » Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:02 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:10 pm
27C here today. Almost got a shower, but not to be.

Another day tomorrow, but not confident. Maybe a shower.

Wednesday looks the best chance, but each run seems to drop totals further. Now at the point where it could just about disappear come tomorrow morning at this rate :roll:

Flew up and back to Canberra today and landscape is just awful. All parched. Multiple big fires evident over eastern Vic.
It's shocking. Everything but established gums are in severe distress from the peninsular to the city and beyond. This is what 2c above average does to this country. Just 2 degrees! So much death it's depressing.

Got a few drops last night, but not enough to register. That heavy storm is all but a distant memory now. I mean, we're tracking even worse than last year..

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by QldTwister » Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:40 pm

Crazy fires last few days and they are going to go for days more

Classic drought singal in models week out wet closer and closer it gets rain totals just fall and fall

Cold Wednesday cool to mild the rest, the dry rolls on

April should see the rain return still dry few weeks yet

This the new world Wet Nov Dec dry Jan Apr
Bring on the heat and stroms

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by hillybilly » Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:35 am

Mild dry night for most. Odd shower and storm today. Hoping to see my first rain in a few weeks, but could easily miss out.

Tomorrow looks better for parts of the south, but showers will clear east quickly so won’t be big falls :( Been tracking EC for this event closely and it’s dropped totals day after day. Started on about 30mm here, dropped to 20mm, then 10mm now about 5mm. Typical crap drought signal on the models where you see something ok at day seven, only to see if fade. Of course, what matters is what has the gauge, so hoping to be surprised :?

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by Macedonian » Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:39 am

Day 7 is about 6 days too far in advance.
Not expecting anything here.

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by tonycynic » Tue Mar 05, 2019 12:14 pm

Expect rain and cooler weather for the week ending 24/3, planning on going camping. Meanwhile the sun is coming out and it is warming up after a nice start. Hope we get showers tonight.

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:10 pm

Oceans are driving the dry spell, atmosphere is a result of the ocean’s behaviour. When currents change, so does the sea surface temperature, then the atmosphere changes, which drives anomalies in winds and changes the weather and climate across the planet. Met 101.

Indian Ocean is exhibit 'A' for our dry spell as mentioned before by others. Lets hope its slight warming trend can continue but ATM its still colder than normal off NW WA.

I’ve seen far worse dry conditions than this period. I registered an above average rainfall month only 2 months ago in December. This is a walk in the park compared to other periods I've experienced.
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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:18 pm

The Massive Huntsman in my Laundry :o is a good indication of rain,
Wish the radar would confirm this too..
I've just have the park lands next door mow, as much as for fire reason I'm happy but the amount of dust he left is worrying if I hadn't got my washing in..

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by James » Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:53 pm

cant see anything happening today

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Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

Post by Sean » Tue Mar 05, 2019 4:13 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:10 pm
I’ve seen far worse dry conditions than this period. I registered an above average rainfall month only 2 months ago in December. This is a walk in the park compared to other periods I've experienced.
Australia wide, this is no walk in the park, that's for sure. Hopefully the rains come this autumn/spring otherwise the famine will be worse than last year.

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