Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

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hillybilly
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Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly » Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:02 am

Stubborn block in the Tasman Sea is going to give us a long warm to hot spell. Absolute temperatures aren’t too hot, but there’s likely to be multiple hot days. Latest EC suggests five or six days above 35C for much of southern Vic, and that some spots in the north could well get ten days above 35C in a row. It will be a bit troughie, so chance for the odd shower mainly about the ranges on a number of days, but sparse overall at this stage.

Winds will freshen on a number of days so bit of a worry for fires :?

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Tassiedave » Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:18 am

Has this been a weird monsoon? In the last 19 days there has been only 17 mm in Darwin. Average February Rainfall in Darwin is 374 mm.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Adam38 » Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:36 am

40c forecast for here on Saturday.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Didjman » Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:02 am

Is that dust ahead of the cloud band in the bight? It is running the whole length of the cloud band. There is some wind somewhere if it is.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by flyfisher » Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:05 pm

Yes, its quite bad. Repeat of last summer. The monsoon in the NW just has not fired probably due to the cooler Indian ocean. In the Pacific the setup looks like a modoki El Nino (Warm water concentrated in the west central Pacific)

Looking for positive signs, there is strong warming around Sumatra in the Indian Ocean, if that keeps going and expands south and east it could help fuel NW cloud bands later in Autumn.

Currently, cannot see anything of note for the next few weeks. But the shadows are lengthening so at least I can water the garden earlier and I am doing lots of that. Big water bill but better than dead plants and trees.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by snowfall » Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:44 pm

It really has been a horrible summer with regard to drought. It has been quite cool the past couple of weeks, with quite a few overnight minimums getting down into single digits. We're currently tracking at 12.4c as the minimum (slightly below average) and 24.9c as the maximum (close to average), though that is about to change with the return of the heat today and this week. It's the absence of any rain, including in the forecast, that is pretty unsettling. I almost forget what it's like to have regular rain! Now totally dry here, with numerous mature trees showing considerable stress or actually dying. We've had around 40mm for January and February, but each spell of rain has failed to penetrate the soil and pretty much evaporated the next day.

Definitely a case of looking for any signs of hope, and hopefully that warming around Indonesia spreads. North and north-west Australia certainly needs some kind of boost - it's quite bizarre seeing the north so cloud-free at this time of year. Otherwise, much of the ocean around Australia is still on the cooler side, although not quite as extensive as it was a couple of weeks ago. One thing seems apparent - a warm Tasman Sea doesn't do us any favours at all. The same thing happened last year, alongside the flash drought in summer and autumn.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Sean » Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:41 pm

Tassiedave wrote:
Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:18 am
Has this been a weird monsoon? In the last 19 days there has been only 17 mm in Darwin. Average February Rainfall in Darwin is 374 mm.
Very.

Late to start, then dumps everything it has in 2 weeks around Townsville, then decides to head north again, leaving above average, almost record breaking heat in its wake. This is why Darwin, surprisingly, has one of the least secure water supplies in the country. Can only hope next year's is better, I suppose. I just hope it's not a sign of the times. I mean, 500,000 dead heads of cattle? The monsoon is meant to be the saving grace.

As for when it's going to rain here, god knows. The ground is so dry its hydrophobic so anything that does fall will probably end up in storm water drains. In terms of our environment and agricultural industry, this has to be one of the worst summer's in history.

Time we had a la nina :(

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by jimmyay » Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:43 pm

I’ve not lived in Australia for as long as many of you have, I only moved here 7 years ago so wasn’t here for the Millenium drought.

However at the moment, this is the driest I’ve seen it in Melbourne since 2012 and the first time I’ve seen mature trees (mostly the European ones it seems) with such acute drought stress, losing all their leaves by the middle of summer etc. the subsoil must be so dry, so deep.

we did have the wet period in nov- dec which broke a very long dry period but not nearly enough given the almost rainless past 2 months which have followed. It’s been a very dry 12 months.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly » Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:04 pm

Didjman wrote:
Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:02 am
Is that dust ahead of the cloud band in the bight? It is running the whole length of the cloud band. There is some wind somewhere if it is.
Wouldn’t be surprised. There are also many big fires out there. Been fierce heats for weeks through the Gold Fields and indeed most of Western Australia with close to no rain.

Reached 28C here. Comfortable day, but baking heat for the garden and bush. Cut the lawns and it was like a dust storm behind the mower, and we live in one of the coldest and wettest towns in Vic :o

Some signs that we might get some rain early next week, with GFS, CMC and EC all showing some, but all different on details.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:19 am

Min of 20C here. Air is really dry which is not good for fire risk when the winds picks up a bit.

Progs are shockers. Huge high in the Tasman puts us under a long live northerly with 850Ts in the teens to near 20C. Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday could all crack the old 100F in Melbourne going by EC :( Rains disappeared from the latest runs too :?

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:25 am

A nice warm end to summer :)

Looks like a decent monsoon pulse coming up in 2 weeks, things could get interesting in mid March viewtopic.php?f=3&p=109355#p109355

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:44 pm

Looks painful for those attending Avalon Airshow this weekend...

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Tassiedave » Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:22 pm

Hobart reached a maximum of 35.2 degrees today.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:01 pm

30C in FC today. That's about 35C sea level so getting hot :( Cooler tomorrow, and maybe a little early cloud to make it feel a touch less summery.

Next week looking cooler thankfully. Maybe some showers in about eight days if GFS and EC are to be believed.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Tassiedave » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:32 pm

Launceston forecast for Friday and Saturday is 33 degrees! Hobart forecast Saturday is 37 degrees. Record for March is 37.3 in 2008

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly » Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:53 am

Front seems to have gone missing somewhere. Still 21C here. Cooler day today, before more heat. Latest GFS and EC are speeding up the change for the end of the sequence. Could well come through early Sunday now. Be nice to avoid a hot Sunday and Monday. Odd shower on Thursday, Sunday and Monday with a bit of instability, mainly east. The big high to our east has really robbed the moisture.

BTW, bit of topic but some really odd warmth back in the UK. Lotsa sites today set a new February record, peaking at 20.6C. First time they’ve seen a 20C in February. Lots of sad snow lovers over there with even the biggest hills in Scotland almost bare :o Further east a crazy surge of cold air into Eastern Europe. Haven’t seen any notable cold records, but intense wind storms and blizzards.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:26 am

hillybilly wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:53 am
Front seems to have gone missing somewhere. Still 21C here. Cooler day today, before more heat. Latest GFS and EC are speeding up the change for the end of the sequence. Could well come through early Sunday now. Be nice to avoid a hot Sunday and Monday. Odd shower on Thursday, Sunday and Monday with a bit of instability, mainly east. The big high to our east has really robbed the moisture.

BTW, bit of topic but some really odd warmth back in the UK. Lotsa sites today set a new February record, peaking at 20.6C. First time they’ve seen a 20C in February. Lots of sad snow lovers over there with even the biggest hills in Scotland almost bare :o Further east a crazy surge of cold air into Eastern Europe. Haven’t seen any notable cold records, but intense wind storms and blizzards.
1040 HPa anticyclone sitting over Germany is certainly a factor there - a classic Omega block. Meanwhile, Western USA has had its strongest cold front and very heavy snowfalls in the past week. Even Las Vegas got in on the action.

Back in Vic, it feels like March 2008 all over again.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Skywalker » Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:17 am

Another day, another round of morning watering completed. It's a full time job now unfortunately with not a drop of rain in sight. :(
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly » Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:26 pm

Skywalker wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:17 am
Another day, another round of morning watering completed. It's a full time job now unfortunately with not a drop of rain in sight. :(
Same here, and most my friends have similar comments. No matter how much mulch and water tanks you have, these grinding summers are just too much. Most to much of Vic will have its hottest summer on record, which just adds that sting when you get a couple of dry months :(

Change pushed through here just after nine. Almost went into fog, but now back to sunny and humid.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly » Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:33 pm

Humid max of 20C for the (after 9am) period. Nice cool breeze, but sultry sun.

Progs persisting with an earlier front on Sunday, with the odd shower about. Before then warm to hot to very hot. We don't get the worst of it - SA is hotter, while Tasmania has about half the state forecast to break March record highs on Friday or Saturday :o

Bit early to get too excited, but CMC and GFS 0Z runs are showing a decent rain event next week now. Waiting to see if EC has it. Progs have been toying with the idea of a front next week standing up and finally dragging down a decent in feed from the tropics.

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