Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

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hillybilly
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Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by hillybilly » Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:48 am

A week with not a lot of weather with weak troughs and highs dominating. Uppers are mild to warm so no real extremes in temperatures, though may become a bit cooler around Thursday.

Prospects for decent rainfall are pretty low, but will be the odd shower, drizzle patch or fog patch on most days. Probably the best chance for precip is Monday, Tuesday and Thursday when flow tends to be a bit more onshore. Not really seeing much in the way of storms :(

Perhaps a pattern change in about ten days with a big high becoming established in the Tasman. Depending on the movement of TCs this could see us either go into a long hot dry spell or a long hot humid spell.



Nice fog this morning in the Dandenongs so quite humid in the low levels.

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by Tassiedave » Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:45 pm

Boring week ahead weather wise, cyclone off Queensland is of interest but will miss landfall it seems.

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by snowfall » Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:09 pm

Yes we’ve hit the doldrums weatherwise with another long stretch of dryness ahead. Still waiting for a good-size rain event, and just have to hope that something turns up as we head into March. Foggy start here this morning, which cleared to a warm day with a maximum of 27.3c. Currently 16.9c, so at least it’s cooling down for the evening. I have done a lot of garden watering today so it can cope with the shortage of rain this week - hopefully we get a few showers or drizzle at some point to at least slow the evaporation down. Quite odd to see the lack of cloud on the satellite picture over northern Australia at this time of year.

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by hillybilly » Sun Feb 17, 2019 8:02 am

Beaut morning in the hills, but geez I’d like some rain or even better a storm. 17C and calm above a sea of fog. Struggling to see anything exciting in the next ten, maybe twenty, days. Going to have to start water the garden again soon :(

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by occluded » Sun Feb 17, 2019 9:06 am

Lovely early morning weather, 15C when I left home and not too cold after riding up the 1-in-20 to Sassafras. Then descended into a sea of fog - was colder down in The Basin than up on the hill.

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by Tassiedave » Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:23 pm

Looks potentially hot for the last few days of February.

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by hillybilly » Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:38 am

Warm one yesterday with a max of 25C. Looks quite warm today, though winds slowly freshening from the south. Perhaps the odd shower with a bit of mid-level cloud.

No proper rain in the outlook, and looks hot from about Sunday for a few days :(

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by Tassiedave » Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:42 pm

It won't rain here in Northern Tasmania for at least 10 days. I've rarely seen an outlook that has so little rain in SE Qld, all of NSW, Vic, Tas, SA and nearly all of WA

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by hillybilly » Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:44 am

Light showers here this morning but not enough to register :( Things drying out again after the good rain at the start of the month.

Next few days look cool to mild with the odd shower. Huge high then develops for the weekend. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see a record high February pressure for Melbourne looking at the progs with potential for us to go over 1030hPa. Things after that look warm to hot and dry :( The TC in the Coral Sea could end up in Queensland or New Zealand depending on which model is your favourite, tied to whether it stays just north or just south of the upper trough moving up on NZ. Hoping it can drag rain and humidity west and break down this stubborn dry and hot pattern that has dominated almost all of OZ for the past three months (apart from northeast Queensland :o ).

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by stevco123 » Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:33 am

1mm so far this morning. Quite a bleak morning actually
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:25 pm

If TC Oma headed into Qld and Central NSW, then that would be great. I don't like our chances though. More likely that NZ will get it...

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by weathergasm » Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:49 pm

This run of incredibly boring settled weather is just interminable. At this point I’m barely bothering to look at the forecasts. Here’s hoping for the monsoon to go out with a big bang and for a favourable synoptic lineup to bring some of that precipitatable water down here (and meet up with a nice, deep upper trough - a man can hope).

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:57 pm

Latest EC has Brisvegas getting absolutely smashed by TC Oma this weekend. This one could be a real rogue "Beast from the Northeast".

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by Tassiedave » Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:06 pm

Still not much in the outlook in Vic/Tas - all the weather focus is with what TC Oma will do.

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by hillybilly » Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:53 am

1mm in FC overnight. That could be it for Feb. We're just shy of 50mm so an OK month, but still about 15mm below average. We've now had 12 of the past 14 months below average. That's about the worst run I've seen, including during the Milleninium Drought :(

Warm to hot week coming up.

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by StratoBendigo » Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:05 am

I'm enjoying the cooler weather at present. But into next week and in to early March it looks like endless 35c+. Ughh....

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by Skywalker » Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:43 am

Things are certainly depressingly bone dry out here in the western desert. The only areas with any tinge of green are those that are being watered regularly.

Rainfall wise we haven't even made it to double figures for the month. :(
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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by Tassiedave » Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:25 am

Boring - lots of green 0 mm sections for the next 8 days on the Raincast. http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by Adam38 » Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:03 pm

Skywalker wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:43 am
Things are certainly depressingly bone dry out here in the western desert. The only areas with any tinge of green are those that are being watered regularly.

Rainfall wise we haven't even made it to double figures for the month. :(
Yep it’s terribly dry out this way.

Off topic but why is it that a lot of public parks( apart from sporting grounds) in Melbourne aren’t watered and left to die in summer?
It’s something I noticed when I moved here from Perth.
Most of Perth’s public suburban parks and gardens are irrigated with bore water and more recently recycled storm water.

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Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

Post by dazrain » Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:45 pm

Adam38 wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:03 pm
Skywalker wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:43 am
Things are certainly depressingly bone dry out here in the western desert. The only areas with any tinge of green are those that are being watered regularly.

Rainfall wise we haven't even made it to double figures for the month. :(
Yep it’s terribly dry out this way.

Off topic but why is it that a lot of public parks( apart from sporting grounds) in Melbourne aren’t watered and left to die in summer?
It’s something I noticed when I moved here from Perth.
Most of Perth’s public suburban parks and gardens are irrigated with bore water and more recently recycled storm water.
Because they are looked after by stupid local councils that want to save money all the time.

Are Perth’s parks looked after by local councils or state government?

Agree it’s crazy here to let them all die

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