VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

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Gordon
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VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Gordon » Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:14 am

Well, we need a new thread and despite a hot day likely for Sunday, over the coming week or so, it looks like we might otherwise see a return to more normal temps and even some rain starting to appear.

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by Gordon » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:32 pm

GFS has had our area down for 25mm plus Wednesday/Thursday for 4 runs now, and Weatherzone just produced this chart for 10pm Wednesday:

Image

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by wolfcat » Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:29 pm

Both Saturday and Sunday are hotter, with the CBD now heading for 39c on Sunday, and down to 24 overnight Saturday.

There are a couple of emergency warnings out this arvo for fires as well, this could be a bad weekend. Hope everyone stays safe and cool.

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by Tassiedave » Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:36 pm

Off topic but the latest forecast for Townsville in light of what has already fallen is downright scary.

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by hillybilly » Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:13 pm

Latest EC has over 150mm in FC. CMC and GFS also got big falls. Be happy if we got half of that, though being on a big hill 100mm isn’t a problem.

Given models usually downgrade, good to start high ;)

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by Onetahuti » Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:14 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:13 pm
Latest EC has over 150mm in FC. CMC and GFS also got big falls. Be happy if we got half of that, though being on a big hill 100mm isn’t a problem.

Given models usually downgrade, good to start high ;)
Are these forecasts of fantastic falls a follow on movement of the system currently affecting Nth Qld or coming from elsewhere?

Wonderful day today, so good to be able to work outside and enjoy it. Also my best solar production day of the summer thus far, happy with that too.

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by Skywalker » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:40 pm

wolfcat wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:29 pm
Both Saturday and Sunday are hotter, with the CBD now heading for 39c on Sunday, and down to 24 overnight Saturday.

There are a couple of emergency warnings out this arvo for fires as well, this could be a bad weekend. Hope everyone stays safe and cool.
Unfortunately our planned weekend down on the island has been affected by the Grantville fire. :(
We were on our way down there & had to turn back. Lucky we only got as far as Pakenham.

Very bloody frustrating & concerning these fires are, especially the one near the thompson.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by hillybilly » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:39 am

Progs settled down and converged. Remarkable consistency across GFS, GFS3, CMC and EC with widespread 15-50mm falls the week ahead. Showers start Monday and don't clear til Friday. Looks like a good set up for widespread showers and storms over multiple days. Hoping this one delivers as we really need a state wide event to douse the numerous large fires out east.

Meanwhile a nice though hot day today, becoming a bit hotter tomorrow. Looks like the showers sit mainly behind the front.

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by StratoBendigo » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:04 am

Yes, nice to finally see some convergence in the forecast models. A good chance of 20mm+ here I reckon which will be very welcome.

And looks quite cool in a week's time too.

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by Macedonian » Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:57 am

Any amount of rain would be welcome but i find it hard to get too excited this far out.

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by Gordon » Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:18 am

I know what you mean Macedonian and I'll wait til it's in fact falling out of the sky onto my place before cracking the champagne!

However the difference this time compared to most of January, is the rain forecast now is actually better than it was a few days ago - makes a change from the slow death suffered by nearly every rain event forecast for the last month. Even the WATL chart for Wednesday is looking half decent this morning.

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by Adam38 » Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:31 am

Some really incredible rainfall totals in QLD, a recording station just inland of Townsville is sitting on almost 1400mm for the week.
Another 40c+ forecast for here tomorrow😩

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by hillybilly » Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:21 pm

GFS and CMC updates holding or better :) One more stinker tomorrow. Been 31C here today, so another hot one. Garden appreciated the 11mm the other night, but its effects are fast disappearing.

BTW fire near the Bass Highway throwing up a lot of smoke on radar. Shows how dry things are when a modest size fire with plenty of nearby roads takes half a day to suppress :o Meanwhile the fire in the Thompson catchment is getting very large and now run almost the length of the reservoir.

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by Tassiedave » Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:36 pm

The rain totals on the latest BOM forecast for Melbourne are a touch underwhelming?

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by StratoBendigo » Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:30 pm

Yep, still looks good for Wednesday night to be wet. GFS is doing its usual wild overestimate.

Thomson Dam fire look bad. They’re going to have a hard time stopping it from affecting Mt. Baw Baw resort if the Northerly picks up. A strong chance it’ll go right up to the main dam wall or beyond.

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by hillybilly » Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:35 pm

EC update not much changed. ACCESS has big falls for areas east of about Geelong. UK mainly east of Melbourne. Across the average of models looks pretty good for most spot apart from the far west, but fair bit of variation.

Tending to think 20-40mm here in FC.

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by StratoBendigo » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:22 pm

Incidentally, a fire is causing a bit of grief near Hepburn Springs this evening. Not a good location and I hope they get it under control.

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by hillybilly » Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:31 am

Models seem to be settled on a good event :D Each is similar and gives a drink to everywhere apart from the far west and northwest which may not get much (which is typical in summer).

Stinker today, though thankfully nothing like those truely awful days earlier in summer. Temps mainly mid to high 30s south, high 30s to 40s north. Wind are pretty light and front unimpressive, but air is rather dry and it’s hot enough to be a worry with things so dry ;)

Showers start from tomorrow, first mainly east. Becoming more widespread Tuesday as the upper trough settles in to our west and surface trough slowly digs southwest. Might get some showers and storms in northcentral and central areas, but mainly east were some will be heavy. Wednesday and Thursday then bring widespread showers and storm. Instability is excellent and the precipitable water values are high so they should be dumpers. Mount Isa which is broadly the source region for what’s starting to come south had its highest precipitable water value on record yesterday, so we have a record wet airmass parked to our north. We could well approach records in Victoria, depending on how it plays out down here in the coming days.

Showery then from Friday to Monday, particularly south.

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by Didjman » Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:48 am

StratoBendigo wrote:
Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:22 pm
Incidentally, a fire is causing a bit of grief near Hepburn Springs this evening. Not a good location and I hope they get it under control.
Hepburn Springs on Emergency Warning

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Re: First week of Feb 2019 - a break in the pattern?

Post by StratoBendigo » Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:49 am

Yep, rather interesting to see Mt Isa with max temp of 27c yesterday, and a DP of 25c. Soggy!

GFS is sticking with a 70mm deluge, while EC keeps it real with 20mm expected in coming week for us.

Hepburn fire is expected to encroach on Hepburn and Hepburn Springs in the next 2 hours. Not good at all.

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