VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

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VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by hillybilly » Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:08 pm

Moderately optimistic that the next week will bring a change in the pattern. The upper trough to our west stays anchored feeding tropical moisture in the mid-levels. A number of surface troughs provide the focus for showers and storms, with a possible more significant font approaching around Thursday. GFS, GFS3, CMC and EC are all showing moderate to possibly heavy falls, though have been jumpy so not confident on totals and locations.

The weekend will bring the odd shower and storm, increasing around Wednesday and Thursday.

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Re: Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January

Post by Sean » Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:20 pm

You wouldn't want stocks on the rain market this January..

But the monsoon is strengthening, so our chances are looking better. Temperatures across the country courting something resembling average over the next 7 days as a result (some places trending 5+ degrees above atm).

We deserve a wet February

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Re: Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January

Post by StratoBendigo » Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:20 pm

Happy to see more than 10mm. Interesting to see a strong cold front clipping Tasmania and even Southern Vic too in the sequence.

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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by Jake Smethurst » Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:33 pm

Heat returning from Monday and building each day ahead of the system later in the week, though not to the extreme heat we have seen over the last few days or so. Wednesday looks like the hottest out of the sequence with high 30's across most western and central districts, slightly cooler through the east and Gippsland with low to mid 30's.

Conditions also becoming relatively unstable, beginning over the far northeast ranges Monday/Tuesday before more widespread shower/storm activity on Wednesday.

Milder weather coming through on Thursday/Friday following the change before warming again into the weekend.
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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by hillybilly » Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:53 am

Stupid models wiggling again. EC has gone from 40mm to 1mmin FC in just two runs :o CMC,UKMO, GFS and German are still looking good, but EC and GFS3 all leave west and central areas mostly dry now with a week of warm to hot conditions. So need this one.... The current flash drought is approaching the point where we will start to loose mature trees in the coming weeks. I’d guess about one more week at this point for the Dandenongs. A dry spell of six weeks tends to be the point where we go from wilt to dying. We are currently at five weeks.

Squeeze out 0.6mm last night from those showers. Bit better to our east whic is good given the big number of fires burning out there now :?

EDIT> looking across the EC ensembles most have a few mm (at least) for central and eastern areas, but big range. Quite a few have widespread 10-50mm falls, while other only have piddle. Clearly a big range of uncertainty. The front on Thursday will move up into very moist and unstable airmass. That should exploded with convection, but where this happens is unclear.

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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by weathergasm » Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:40 pm

I'll believe that rain's coming when I see the approaching rain curtain. I'm glad the monsoon has finally arrived (with a vengeance in FNQ!) so at least there's the possibility of a nice, deep tropical feed to help break this infuriatingly boring snap drought, but yeah I'll believe it when I see it.

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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by StratoBendigo » Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:11 pm

Most of the forecast models have gone cold on decent rain for us this week. A bit disappointing. But it looks like much of inland Queensland might get a good drink. Western and Central Australia still looks fairly grim.

Today was bliss. Overcast with high cloud most of the day and a top of 26c. Very pleasant. In fact it looks like Avalon Airport was the only site in vic today that exceeded 30c. But the heat returns tomorrow. Looks cool again on Thursday and Friday.

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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by flyfisher » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:19 am

I think we will stay stuck on the dry side of the cycle as long as that cold water persists in the eastern Indian ocean. Was hoping it would break down over summer but it just won't. Meanwhile the Tasman has gone hot again which will induce cut off lows in Autumn which usually holds the ridge over us.

Think last summer/Autumn - this is basically a repeat of that pattern. Flash drought in full force here.

What I actually think could break this whole annoying pattern down is a full blown El Nino in the Pacific. It would drain the western/central warm pool then force the winds afterwards back to strong easterly which then turns the currents around and feeds Pacific water through Indonesia and warms the eastern Indian ocean. Not worried about El Nino I don't believe it's impact on us is that much, Indian ocean is way more important.

One can only hope!

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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by hillybilly » Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:55 pm

Back from a few days at Walkerville. Amazing beach weather down there. Water is really warm and the temperatures were warm and conditions sunny or mostly sunny. Had just 2mm in more than two weeks there so getting seriously dry. Certainly no lack of local ocean warmth, but no system to tap the moisture :roll:

Progs have come back a bit, but not really confident. EC dropped to basically zero, but on the 12Z had 10-20mm most areas east of about the city. GFS, GFS3 and CMC also holding ok falls, but they tend to often predict rain that never happens so not confident. Waiting to see the 0Z EC run.

Meanwhile the heat just rolls on. 31C in FC today which is about 36C sea level equivalent. Anticipate this will now be our hottest summer in decades if not on record :x

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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Mon Jan 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Temps in Tas today: Campania 32.2, Hobart Airport 32.0, Hobart 31.1, Friendly Beaches 29.8, Fingal 28.4, Launceston 23.8

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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by hillybilly » Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:59 pm

Tassiedave wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 4:59 pm
Temps in Tas today: Campania 32.2, Hobart Airport 32.0, Hobart 31.1, Friendly Beaches 29.8, Fingal 28.4, Launceston 23.8
Just getting silly these temperatures. Even in southerlies we are cracking the high 20s or 30s here at 560m in southern Victoria. Much of southeast Australia is currently running monthly anomalies above 5C which will make it the hottest month ever observed in the region.

Progs look ok but not great. EC has 10-25mm east of Melbourne through northeast. GFS, UKMO and CMC similar. GFS3 lost interest after being keen. Looks thundery late Wednesday so going to be hit and miss. Never confident with these.

Really need it with numerous fires now burning in the ranges east of Melbourne including across the water catchments. Had multiple firefghting bombers fly over here this afternoon as they try to knock down fires in the Thompson and Yarra catchments. To our south looking really bad in Tassie :(

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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by Jake Smethurst » Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:33 pm

Reached 36.6 degrees here in Moorabbin today, slightly behind the CBDs top of 36.8 degrees. Southerly has kicked in now with a lovely refreshing cooler temperature of 29! :)

More hot weather tomorrow ahead of the change. Freshening and at times locally gusty winds over the state, but particular western districts which is why we're expecting "severe" fire dangers over the Mallee, Wimmera and Southwest (and those locations also have a declared Total Fire Ban). Would re-check that in the morning, there is a slight risk central may adjust into this category.

Still looks fairly unstable for mainly central and eastern parts tomorrow, so hopefully a few showers and storms can kick off. Latest modelling suggests that if you can score a thunderstorm or two, there could be heavy falls between 5-20mm (so fingers crossed). Will all come down to timing and if one can score that elusive storm. :P Unfortunately, also potential for dry lightning through western parts.
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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by Adam38 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:51 pm

Another warm one today with almost 38c, hoping for something rain wise tomorrow...

Off topic, watching the cricket currently being played in Hobart and that smoke haze from the Huon Valley fires is really bad 😢

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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by hillybilly » Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:33 pm

Another stinker up here with 32C. Vic has the hottest January on record now in the bag with anomalies running around plus five C state wide (and hottest month) :(

Turning to tomorrow, and another stinker and humid. But, looks very unstable for most areas east of about Geelong to Bendigo. Progs all showing moderate to locally heavy falls, though patchy so will be hit miss. Current consensus suggest east central and the northeast should do best. The timing on the deepening trough is good for central areas with good low level moisture racing in from the north, nice warm temperatures and steep mid level lapse rates. Wind change looks to move through late arvo or early evening. Would not be surprised to see some big wet storms, but after five and a bit weeks of disappointment, still kinda prepared for twenty rumbles and two mms here.

Sunday’s change and then a good trough around Wednesday next week also looking encouraging at this point. Hopefully we can put this nasty record hot flash drought behind us :?

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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:31 pm

The Thomson River fire has made a real run today. Right up to the shoreline. That could really stuff around with Melbourne's water quality this year...

Seems to be getting a bit close to Baw Baw ski resort too.

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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by hillybilly » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:55 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:31 pm
The Thomson River fire has made a real run today. Right up to the shoreline. That could really stuff around with Melbourne's water quality this year...

Seems to be getting a bit close to Baw Baw ski resort too.
The webcam looks bad. Lots of smoke and looks like a big pyro-cumulus cloud.

Image

Fingers crossed they get some solid rain tomorrow, though with forest so dry we need inches (not mm's).

Some shocking photos from Tassie with a large part of the Huon Valley are under emergency warnings. Some absolutely stunning wet forests going up down there :(

This flash drought is quite shocking. Areas which were wet just five to six weeks ago are just cooked off from the relentless heat.

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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:25 pm

Max Temps in Tas today: Campania 33.4, Hobart Airport 33.2, Friendly Beaches 33.1, Hobart 32.9, St Helens 31.4, Launceston 27.7

Rainfall so far in January: Hobart 0.4 mm, St Helens 3.6 mm, Launceston 3.4 mm, Ross 2.6 mm, Devonport 3.4 mm, Swansea 2.2 mm, Fingal 1 mm

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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by Sean » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:09 am

Hot today, hot tomorrow; everything really dry and looking terrible. Few deciduous trees turning yellow and dropping leaves :|

Meanwhile, in Cairns, Melbourne's yearly average rainfall in one month

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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:19 am

Access R is showing huge Total totals through central areas this evening and tonight around the trough. Other models similar. 30 to 35c degree differences from 850 to 500 hPa with juicy surface dew points. Mid level moisture not too bad. If the projections verify, sit back on the porch and watch the sky light up as there will be a lots of sparks in central areas as we go into the evening and later tonight.
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Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Post by hillybilly » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:19 am

Good to see that Jasmine :D

GFS, UK and EC all consistent with that with showers/storms firing late (mainly after 5pm). Patchy falls, but locally moderate to heavy. Probably our best chance since before Christmas :? Meanwhile another stinker across the state, and quite difficult fire conditions out west where humidity is a lot lower.

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