More heat and possible records: January 19-27

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hillybilly
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More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by hillybilly » Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:38 pm

Another week another heatwave in the offering. This one currently looks particularly nasty, with 850Ts likely to approach 30C in the second half of next week. More wind with the eventual change that will provide some relief, but elevate fire danger to concerning levels. Peak is still a few days out so details will evolve, and hopefully the event winds back somewhat.

Perhaps some moisture likely to come in towards the end of the event, but too early to have much confidence.

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by Tassiedave » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:41 pm

Max temps in Tas today: Ouse 32.3, Fingal 29.3, Cressy 29.1, Wynyard 27.1, Launceston 27.0, Scottsdale 26.3, Hobart 23.2. Also Hobart has broken its record for number of consecutive days with a max over 20 degrees: 25 days

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by Rhys_34 » Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:45 am

Latest run of EC showing a severe heat event for Victoria next Friday. Combined with gusty NW winds widespread 850hpa temps of 29C will result in large swathes of Victoria, including Melbourne, reaching maximums of 44-46C. That is a number of runs now that is showing this event, if EC is still showing this same data by Monday then I think people in rural areas should start preparing for severe bushfire conditions...
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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by hillybilly » Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:54 am

Week ahead looks like having two parts. First half warm to hot, but only a bit above average, then heating up for Thursday and Friday quite possibly the hottest day since Black Saturday :( Progs are very consistent on heat so can’t realy see the north avoiding a mid to high 40s day and the south a low to mid 40s day. Synoptics a bit mixed. Synoptics have been easing a little with each run, but it still looks like a helish sort of day :? EC wiggled quite a bit from and overnight change to a middle of the day change.

Again the Victorian January record could fall this week and we will see multiple 45C in the north. A 45C day in Victoria used to happen once a decade. I’ve lost track of how many we’ve had this year, but must be fifty to one hundred years worth already :(

Looking at the numbers Vic is currently running about 3C above average of summer so far. That’s about 1C above the record which is shared by 2000 and 1980, so even a normal February will be enough to give us the record.

Not really seeing any firm prospects for rain. This combo of flash drought and record heat is going to take a big toll on plants and animals if it doesn’t break soon.

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by hillybilly » Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:16 am

Looking at the EC ensembles the change could come through any time between Thursday evening and Friday evening. 5pm temperatures on Friday vary between mid 40s and mid 20s in Melbourne. The set up is very complex with a deep low cutting off over WA before getting dragged into the westerlies. An earlier front makes Thursday the hot one, while a delay makes Friday the peak.

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by StratoBendigo » Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:27 pm

18z GFS persists with strong Northerlies right into next weekend. Awful. Potentially days of Code Red ugliness.

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by Sean » Sat Jan 19, 2019 4:58 pm

BOM now treating Friday as peak day. If we're lucky the change will arrive early and prevent the worst of it. Still warm, but bearable.

Monsoon looks to be intensifying around the same time, which may mean the worst of the heat may be over. Feb could even be fairly wet given the spate of troughs

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:10 pm

BoM 4.20pm going nice and conservative for Friday and then EC control 00Z pulls no punches. BoM internally must now be quite concerned that EC keeps producing this synoptic scenario.

The negative SAM signal last week was a good hint of the upcoming propagating Rossby wave into southern Australia within the next 5 to 9 days. Combining with the terrestrial heat bomb in the middle, we now have a significant fire weather set up on our hands IMO.

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by stevco123 » Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:11 pm

As others have said, the timing of the front is critical on whether we get a hot or very hot day.

Could well be one of those couple of days where Thursday morning is mild, spiking in the late afternoon and then a warm night thanks to the wind and increasing cloud. Friday morning will then be very warm with the temperature hitting 35 by 10am before the cold front comes through.

As it stands, i think we'll get to 34 or 35 on Thursday and then 35 on Friday morning with a minimum of 25 or 26 on between.

It is very dry out there so temperature will be irrelevant if any fires get going (God forbid)
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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by hillybilly » Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:43 pm

stevco123 wrote:
Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:11 pm
As others have said, the timing of the front is critical on whether we get a hot or very hot day.

Could well be one of those couple of days where Thursday morning is mild, spiking in the late afternoon and then a warm night thanks to the wind and increasing cloud. Friday morning will then be very warm with the temperature hitting 35 by 10am before the cold front comes through.

As it stands, i think we'll get to 34 or 35 on Thursday and then 35 on Friday morning with a minimum of 25 or 26 on between.

It is very dry out there so temperature will be irrelevant if any fires get going (God forbid)
EC has a early arvo front for Melbourne but still manages a maximum of 45C for Melbourne. It’s 40C by 11am. The 850Ts are over 28C which is about the same as Black Saturday, so basically record hot :roll: I’d like to see the front early AM, but not looking that way atm. We had a December day about ten years back where the change came through early AM and saved us from a 45C in Melbourne which would have new record :( Hoping we can repeat that and avoid the worst of it for Victoria.

GFS V3 seems a bit quicker with the front around noon. CMC is slower and has it in the evening. All have nasty wind gusts.

The whole system is a bit wierd. The sky is cloudy on Friday and the low level dewpoints are quite high around 13-17C for much of Vic at 11am. The precipitable water values are remarkably high in the 25-50mm range. That combination could see some astonishing minima if it is timed right :o

Current numbers plugged into the FFDI calculator show widespread code red :(

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by Wilko » Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:00 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:10 pm
BoM 4.20pm going nice and conservative for Friday and then EC control 00Z pulls no punches. BoM internally must now be quite concerned that EC keeps producing this synoptic scenario.

The negative SAM signal last week was a good hint of the upcoming propagating Rossby wave into southern Australia within the next 5 to 9 days. Combining with the terrestrial heat bomb in the middle, we now have a significant fire weather set up on our hands IMO.
I find this whole Aussie heat event quite depressing
I dunno if the countryside/rivers and wildlife will ever be the same once this summer is done for and this is just the “thin edge of the wedge”
The Ecology will be scarred permanently and I do not take any joy breaking temp records
For some time now I have been planning to head south or to higher altitude and go surfing before my reefs are no longer surfable
Planning to live off the grid 🏕

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by hillybilly » Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:16 pm

6Z gfs is about three to six hours quicker. Hopefully that sticks. Hottest air comes through in the early hours of Friday. Has the makings of a record hot night, but probably not a record minimum as the 9am Thursday temperature may not be that hot.

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by Sean » Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:20 pm

Wilko wrote:
Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:00 pm
JasmineStorm wrote:
Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:10 pm
BoM 4.20pm going nice and conservative for Friday and then EC control 00Z pulls no punches. BoM internally must now be quite concerned that EC keeps producing this synoptic scenario.

The negative SAM signal last week was a good hint of the upcoming propagating Rossby wave into southern Australia within the next 5 to 9 days. Combining with the terrestrial heat bomb in the middle, we now have a significant fire weather set up on our hands IMO.
I find this whole Aussie heat event quite depressing
I dunno if the countryside/rivers and wildlife will ever be the same once this summer is done for and this is just the “thin edge of the wedge”
The Ecology will be scarred permanently and I do not take any joy breaking temp records
For some time now I have been planning to head south or to higher altitude and go surfing before my reefs are no longer surfable
Planning to live off the grid 🏕
Generally, Australian fauna and flora will cope with extreme heat, but the duration of events and the number that have occurred are doing damage. The mass bat and fish deaths are receiving the most coverage, but farmers are reporting loss of cattle. There are reports of native mammals dying also, which is troubling.

The biggest issue is regeneration. The more heat, the more death, the harder it is for animal numbers and vegetation to regenerate. For instance, 46, 47+ temperatures may not kill a tree the first time, but if those temperatures happen more often, especially without a wet and cool growing season in between, they can. Outside of the Mallee, Victorian woodland copes with the once per decade, extreme heatwave. Because in that time, younger trees and plants can establish themselves, therefore have the strength to cope. Problem is, frequent heatwaves kill young trees and saplings before they can establish. This hinders regeneration and can lead to all sorts of problems such as rising salinity levels, which basically sterilises the land).

Winter in Victoria is a season of rejuvenation typically, where rains raise the soil moisture and younger trees can grow. But with failing rains, the soil isn't ready for summer. Couple that with increased frequency of harsh frosts and the Victorian woodland won't expand. We've been lucky, though (sorta). Tropical rain events have kept us going. Predictions surrounding the changing nature of our climate have pointed to poor winter rain and clearer skies, which has been happening, but big rain events associated with tropical infeed have been happening too, so hopefully these events replace winter shortcomings. If they don't, well, the Mallee's semi-arid biome will probably expand. Warmer temperatures and less rain are not without consequences. The biggest losers will be farmers that's for sure. Less rain = poorer yields, less fodder (and if tropical rain events occur more often, brown rot and fruit split will also occur). Winter frosts are also going to be a major issue. Some crops may be planted so late in winter to avoid frost that snap droughts or rain events will spoil them just before harvest.

As for our wildlife, well, it will suffer. We've craved up and thinned the forests to such an extent that poor rains = mass starvation, couple that with horrendous fires, roadkill and extreme heat events and you're looking at ecological disaster. This looming heatwave will be bad in ways we can't immediately see, so let's hope it doesn't eventuate. 30c is warm enough for the beach IMO :D

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by Daniel » Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:08 am

With Hillbilly on this if this Cold Front doesn't get to Melbourne by midday Friday a maximum of 46c is not out of the question and what will seem like a nice very hot day we undoubtedly turn in to one hell on earth day. If progs continue the way they are I am expecting at least "CODE RED" enforced for all Western Districts apart from maybe the SW District as the cool change will move through pretty early. Central will be minimum "EXTREME" but possibly "CODE RED" and this would spell DISASTER like Black Saturday 2009. All eastern districts would be at least "VERY HIGH" to "SEVERE". This is "NOT GOOD" at all and all we can hope for is in the next 24-72hrs this thing downgrades or we not only face possible minima and maxima temperature been broken for January we face a very grim day come sunrise on Friday after little sleep and rest overnight on Thursday and Friday morning. On my calculations we have a FDI Values of 78 "EXTREME" to a possible based on a range of scenario's 189 "CODE RED" for Melbourne :o . Something we will be all watching as progs evolve over the coming 72 hours from the leading global model :|

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by hillybilly » Sun Jan 20, 2019 7:31 am

Models all speeding up the front. GFS, UK, GFS3, CMC and EC all have it through Melbourne before 11am, but most tending to have it near 9am. Let’s hope that sticks. It will make Thursday hotter but without the winds (and not crazy hot apart from the Mallee), then puts the winds through overnight. But... this scenario will make Thursday night exceptionally hot. Would think an overnight minimum around 32C pretty likely for Melbourne (but probably not a record because 9am Thursday won’t be too hot). The Victorian record minimum is 31.9C which looks pretty vulnerable going by current runs :?

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by stevco123 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:11 am

Currently looking at about 37 for Thursday and 33 Friday, with a very warm Thursday night (as HB said above).

This is based on my own forecasting which I've stuck to for the past 5 days. It is still 4 days away so things can, and will, change.

That wind in the wee hours of Friday will be nasty however.
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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by Tassiedave » Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:49 am

Launceston forecast 31,32,33 next three days. Our January average this month so far is 26.9 which is equal to our current record (in 1981). Devonport is forecast 29 today, if it gets to 30 that would be a one in 10 year event for January in Devonport.

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by Wilko » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:13 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 7:31 am
Models all speeding up the front. GFS, UK, GFS3, CMC and EC all have it through Melbourne before 11am, but most tending to have it near 9am. Let’s hope that sticks. It will make Thursday hotter but without the winds (and not crazy hot apart from the Mallee), then puts the winds through overnight. But... this scenario will make Thursday night exceptionally hot. Would think an overnight minimum around 32C pretty likely for Melbourne (but probably not a record because 9am Thursday won’t be too hot). The Victorian record minimum is 31.9C which looks pretty vulnerable going by current runs :?

:D

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by Gordon » Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:00 pm

The front for Thursday/Friday now showing on BOM's 4 dayer; on the Victorian border 10pm Thursday.

Image

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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27

Post by snowfall » Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:30 pm

A pleasant 23c here today. We only had 1.7mm on Friday, so the big dry continues. Our average maximum temperature for the month is currently running at 28.7c, which is about 3 degrees above average, and only around 3mm so far for the month. Not surprisingly, the landscape is looking quite parched in these parts. Glad to see this week's front is likely to speed up. Will still leave Thursday very hot, including overnight, but if the strongest winds are overnight, then at least there is some reduction in the fire risk. Really hope it doesn't slow down between now and Friday. What we need is a decent rain event to show up on the models now that the monsoon is starting to get active over northern Australia.

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