The Australian Weather Forum

Next week's predicted heatwave needs a lot of things to line up which still has me predicting it won't happen (not saying that it can't happen). GFS has been producing extreme mid-range forecasts for a while now.

This same model was predicting snow to sea level about 5 times last winter and the winter before that.

I find that it likes to throw extremes out 4-7 days before an "event".

I'm sticking to my forecast of 28-32 for Melbourne, with a mild change next Friday, before a stronger front around the 27th/28th.

In saying that, keep a close eye on how far north that front will end up for next Friday as it will be the key on whether 7 Feb 2009's conditions are repeated.

it does worry me slightly that multiple models have hinted in at least one run that next Thursday could be VERY hot.

The BOM is forecasting temps to go back up to 40c+ across Melbourne next week.

Holy temp rise batman, the BOM added 5c to Thursdays forecast since this mornings run, I suspect it will go up further yet.

A completely different BOM forecast for Ballarat for the week in terms of max temps from this morning (which to be fair is really yesterday afternoon's forecast): Sunday was 26, is now 28; Monday was 32, is now 29; Tuesday was 32, is now 34; Wednesday was 35, is now 29; Thursday was 33, is now 41!

It's been a similar story for most of the date range: obviously a real challenge for BOM to pick the northerly influence vs southerly (at least for southern Vic) even a day or two out.

Adam38 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:30 pm The BOM is forecasting temps to go back up to 40c+ across Melbourne next week.

Felt like gagging when I saw that. Fingers crossed it disappears. The last thing anywhere in this state needs right now is more heat.

On a positive note, some decent rain and rumbles earlier today. Didn't amount to much, but the best rain in weeks.

2.8mm of rain for the mini event. MTD is now 12mm (against a average of 70mm).

Week ahead is just more of the same awful weather. Warm to hot, then a blast of heat.

Friday Morning was a tad wet, made it very funny to be out in it..
made for some really fast running, picked up a stray lady walking,
yelling to her as we bolted through a park Here it comes, if you want a lift follow us,
A really tropical down pour,
windows fogged as 3 climbed in grabbed our breath and then asked her where do you want to go.
turns out she lives 6 doors down.
Dont recall a summer with house windows open for long periods, usually locking out a dry hot heat,
yesterday was tack pants and jacket again..
if only that down pour lasted 10 minutes longer..

Australis(Shell3155) wrote: ↑Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:09 am Friday Morning was a tad wet, made it very funny to be out in it..
made for some really fast running, picked up a stray lady walking,
yelling to her as we bolted through a park Here it comes, if you want a lift follow us,
A really tropical down pour,
windows fogged as 3 climbed in grabbed our breath and then asked her where do you want to go.
turns out she lives 6 doors down.
Dont recall a summer with house windows open for long periods, usually locking out a dry hot heat,
yesterday was tack pants and jacket again..
if only that down pour lasted 10 minutes longer..

Been a wierd flash drought here as we’ve had multiple thunderstorms with heavy rain, but each has only lasted a couple of minutes. If only one had lasted for 15 minutes it would be looking very different in the garden.