VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

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Gordon
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VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Gordon » Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:46 am

Time for a new thread. To my inexpert analysis, looks like 50-50 odds of a hot weekend coming up, after a decent rain event for north-east Victoria on Tuesday.
Last edited by Gordon on Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Wilko » Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:07 pm

Thanks Gordon
Nice week ahead with a warm day on Saturday
At this stage Sunday looks cooler but the heat returns on Monday and the scorching temperatures look like setting in from Tuesday week onwards
This could be the big one that hits Melbourne !
We have been extremely lucky to dodge the most recent heatwave
It’s just a matter of time 😎

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Jake Smethurst » Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:23 pm

Thanks for starting this Gordon.

Definitely beginning to warm up again, sadly no significant rainfall in the outlook. Friday looks to be warm to hot over southern parts and hot north of the ranges, while Saturday is a bit questionable at this stage given the timing of the milder change, the slower it is the hotter it will be.

Latest GFS tends to keep temperatures in the mid to high 20's for southern parts on Saturday (except Gippsland region where 30's look likely), but EC wants to crank it up and deliver mid to even potentially high 30's across a large portion of southern and eastern Victoria (except the southwest) ahead of the change and into the low 40's over the north (higher again in the northwest of the state). Will definitely have to keep an eye on guidance with relation to timing of the change. Fortunately, doesn't appear to be too much wind involved at this stage. :)

We should then enjoy the milder weather on Sunday while we can, as hot temperatures look like creeping back across the state from Monday or Tuesday, as Wilko says above. :sun: :sun: :sun:
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Tassiedave
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:09 am

Looking at early next week on the latest ACCESS G Run for a number of days a huge percentage of mainland Australia is above the red line.

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:25 am

Looks like a shocker next week for us - shades of late January 2009. I'm already over summer. Hurry up Autumn and Winter.

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Hawker » Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:28 pm

Yep strato had enough here as well, even though it hasn't been hot much here.
Bom's latest 10 day run is putting up a shocker run, sat, sun and Monday
edit
One thing that has been good lately is the sea breeze, Redesdale's temp
has dropped nearly 10 c in the last hour. I have the swampy on without water
and it is cooling down very nice inside. :D

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:52 am

Been perfect down here.
Wearing pants and jacket in mornings last couple..
No same season ever the same in Melb.

Gordon
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Gordon » Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:09 am

So latest Yr.No (EC) for Ballarat has replaced BOM's 38C for next Monday with 24C, and has cool weather and a bit of rain for Saturday, Sunday & Monday??

Hope they're on to something - whatever the case, it seems this coming week is finely balanced between northerlies and southerlies.

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by flyfisher » Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:20 pm

Nice storms and some good totals in the NE of Victoria - would love to be under some of those. Very lightning active too.

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:33 pm

Launceston forecast temps Saturday - Tuesday: 32,30,31,33. If this eventuates we will have reached our average number of 30 degree days before the middle of January!

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:52 pm

Just looking at the Melbourne forecast for Monday/Tuesday and the latest model runs from GFS and ACCESS. Are the BOM being a bit conservative with their forecast temps for Melbourne?

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:32 am

Dry washing is now wet,
Good rains in the early am.
I'd say more than the 1.0mm that Scoresby is registering,
Hope it wasn't full of dust like other rains, even our plants have layers of red dust stuck on them from previous dusty/rains.
Is there a word for the mud that falls from the sky ?

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by flyfisher » Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:42 am

Models indicate that ex Penny could move across the NT towards WA Kimberly/Pilbra area. That would be good as this area being cloud free is the source of the heat for us. Cloud and rain up that way - even high cloud over the area will hopefully reduce the baking. Ningaloo Nina has been very strong in this area with cold water all along the WA coast - fingers cross it will break down before Autumn.

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Gordon » Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:18 am

A surprise 1.5mm for us overnight - I'll take what we can get!

And yes, lets hope the north-west oven gets something to take the sting out of the heat!

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:47 pm

Mildura Mon - Wed 43,44,43 Horsham 41,40,41 Ballarat 37,33,34 Melbourne 37,29,29

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Skywalker » Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:35 pm

I don't think the BOM have got a clue regarding the temperatures for next week. Their forecast has changed every day for the past week it seems. :?

Meanwhile it's been steady as she goes down here on the island, absolutely perfect conditions. Currently 18C after a top of 19C here in Cowes. :D
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:17 am

Getting up towards 30 degrees already in Mildura

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:47 pm

Temps all over the place now,
Tomorrow seems to be the cool of 26 until Thursday.
26 30 37 38 35 28 30

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Didjman » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:19 pm

currently 35.2 here - at 300m!

36.1 at 1744 - on sth side of the divide!

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:08 pm

Hobart had a very late maximum today of 30.0 degrees at 5.35pm

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