VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

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hillybilly
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VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by hillybilly » Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:02 am

Looks like summer is going to hit with a bang with the record hot airmass to our north edging south. Hardly any change in the weather patterns at the surface with weak troughs putting us into alternating light northerly and southerlies. Sunny almost right through with little prospects for decent rain.

Temperatures inland becoming hot from Monday with spike days around Thursday and the following Monday. Likely to see multiple days into the 40s, with potential for 45C plus on the hottest days. Not out of the question that Mildura or a nearby location will approach the Victorian December record high :(

Southern areas tend to get a bit more southerly, and avoid the worst of the heat on most days, though Thursday and the following Monday look hot. Fortunately winds look mostly light.

Also watch for potential runs at the Australian December record high with 850Ts hot enough on multiple days for a 50C day if the hottest air rolls over low elevation sites.

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Re: Scorching week: December 24 to 31

Post by flyfisher » Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:51 pm

Hmm, this is similar to last summer and we all know how that turned out. Good rains in December then the flash drought. Hopefully not again. :|

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Re: Scorching week: December 24 to 31

Post by HarleyB » Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:35 pm

There's now 5 40+ days forecast for us here in Wangaratta on the OCF. For me, a heat lover, I can't wait, but I can understand others' worry about the impending heat. It feels like January 2014 was the last time we had a hot run like this though?

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Re: Scorching week: December 24 to 31

Post by StratoBendigo » Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:05 pm

Ugggh. Not looking forward to the heat. I've been rather enjoying the cooler weather of late.

I can't see a 50c in December. Perhaps a 47-48c at the usual suspects (i.e. Oodnadatta, Marree)?

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Re: Scorching week: December 24 to 31

Post by hillybilly » Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:48 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:05 pm
Ugggh. Not looking forward to the heat. I've been rather enjoying the cooler weather of late.

I can't see a 50c in December. Perhaps a 47-48c at the usual suspects (i.e. Oodnadatta, Marree)?
EC has a max of 49C 26 December and 50C on 27 December on the coast near the Pilbara. The 850Ts are record hot, forecast to peak around 34C which in theory could see a 51C, but suspect more like 49 or 50C. The Australian December record is 49.5C so that’s the number to watch :? The temperature network isn’t great there, so could get a record but not record it.

EC for us hasn’t really budged. Perhaps a bit wetter in the south with a couple of showers on Saturday and then more showers around January 1. Mildura could well see 45C on two days.

Current numbers suggest Victoria will end up with its second hottest December on record, which is pretty ironical given the number of people on social media who seem to think it’s been a cold summer thus far :?:

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Re: Scorching week: December 24 to 31

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:32 am

Marble Bar on Boxing Day might get close to 50c. 49c on ensemble this morning...

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Re: Scorching week: December 24 to 31

Post by hillybilly » Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:54 am

Our run of cool nights came to and end last night with a minimum of 16C. Glad to be south of the divide and south facing this week looking at the progs. This one will go down in the record books for inland parts :( Lots of records will fall across OZ, just a case of which ones...

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Re: Scorching week: December 24 to 31

Post by Gordon » Mon Dec 24, 2018 8:37 am

Looking better heat-wise (as in cooler) from Friday onwards for the south? May even get a few more mm of rain to round off the year.

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Re: Scorching week: December 24 to 31

Post by snowfall » Mon Dec 24, 2018 9:40 am

Already 25c here - the sunshine is nice but I can really feel it warming up out there. Thankfully we're not too far inland, but we're still heading for a hot week. Would be great if it ended in a major thundery event, but nothing on the horizon yet.

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Re: Scorching week: December 24 to 31

Post by Didjman » Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:17 pm

Max temp 32C here so far - not bad for this elevation. Max wind to 24klm/hr.

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Re: Scorching week: December 24 to 31

Post by stevco123 » Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:19 pm

I see nothing unusual.

Just plenty of heat that occurs every year. No big deal.

Just depends whether it is recorded by any one of the rare weather stations.

50 degrees has occurred somewhere in Australia every year for at least the last 4000 years.
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Re: Scorching week: December 24 to 31

Post by Gordon » Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:29 pm

Yes south of the Divide and particularly coastal looks fairly benign for the coming week, except for some places on Thursday.

Must be a function of generally lighter winds from the north, because it looks fairly toasty towards the Murray (which is where I'll be for some of the time unfortunately :()

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Re: Scorching week: December 24 to 31

Post by weathergasm » Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:59 pm

At the beginning of boring, dry heat wave periods like this I look at Weipa or Darwin's radar and sigh

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Re: VIC - Scorching week: December 24 to 31 2018

Post by Jake Smethurst » Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:48 pm

Definitely a scorcher of a period north of the divide, with conditions south of the divide escaping the worst except on a couple of days. A weak trough near the southwest coast will meander its way through southern parts tomorrow which is what will keep the lid on temperatures. It is a very hot air-mass though, so it won't take much prognostics-wise for the heat to shift a bit further south during this period. Also worth to note models really don't shift the heat away from the SE of Australia anytime soon, so it is quite exceptional for consecutive heat days for many areas.

Not sure if I'll have internet access tomorrow, but on behalf of The Australian Weather Forum and myself, I certainly want to wish everybody a fantastic Christmas period and day tomorrow. I hope it's fun for everyone (and the weather doesn't get too hot ;) ). Be safe and be merry!
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Re: VIC - Scorching week: December 24 to 31 2018

Post by hillybilly » Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:24 pm

29C here so perfect Christmas BBQ weather. We host a dozen or so neighbourhood families every year so appreciate the warmth.

Front is just pushing through and looks like being around 25-26C here the next two days. Not so pretty in the north with the southerly not making an impact.

Progs tending to suggest we might only get one or two hot ones in the south, on Thursday and Friday. Warm to hot the other days, but enough sea breeze or cloud temper things. Probably four to five consecutive 40s for those up near the Murray.

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Re: VIC - Scorching week: December 24 to 31 2018

Post by Supercellimpact » Tue Dec 25, 2018 12:04 am

Geez what response Sean no need for that, nice job steve taking the high road.

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Re: VIC - Scorching week: December 24 to 31 2018

Post by hillybilly » Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:31 am

Coolish morning which is welcome :D Nice day ahead for most of us. Far northwest Vic will be hot, but not remarkably so.

Inland, starts to get interesting from today. Obs in WA showing some startling overnight temperatures. Telfer currently sat on 34.6C which would be the second hottest on record in OZ, but may slip lower. Been distracted by the high day temps, but with such a hot airmass, the minima will be worth watching.

EC showing signs that the monsoon will start in the north next week, so hopefully that breaks the heatwave conditions and starts to push moisture south.

Let’s keep climate Change discussions elsewhere, and not say things which are clearly wrong or personal. It’s getting hotter and this heating is making heatwave hotter and more frequent. The heating amounts to about four Hiroshima bombs a second. That’s so big that measuring it is simple science nowadays.

EDIT%> bit worried we might get the Victorian record December maximum if EC is correct. 850Ts get to near 30C over Mildura on Friday. That’s seriously close to what we saw on Black Saturday up there :(

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Re: VIC - Scorching week: December 24 to 31 2018

Post by Skywalker » Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:00 pm

Merry Christmas everyone! :D

We have certainly had a bit of everything this month out this way, plenty of rain & now lots of heat to round things off.
Unfortunately won't be able heading down to the island until new years day, so I'm kinda hoping the warmer conditions stick around for when we arrive. ;)
hillybilly wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:31 am
Let’s keep climate Change discussions elsewhere, and not say things which are clearly wrong or personal.


100% agree HB, and posts such as the one referred to earlier should be classified as "off-topic" and deleted. Simple as that.

Enjoy the rest of your day guys. :D
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Re: VIC - Scorching week: December 24 to 31 2018

Post by tonycynic » Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:05 pm

Few temps have dropped in the coming weeks forecast. Still going to be hot though. Enjoy your xmas, hope you all got new weather stations.

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Re: VIC - Scorching week: December 24 to 31 2018

Post by Didjman » Tue Dec 25, 2018 4:05 pm

Merry Christmas to all! We are 7c warmer than Olympic Park atm; 29.4/16 and in a southerly breeze. Reached a max of 32.7c

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