VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

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hillybilly
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VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by hillybilly » Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:06 am

Weak surface trough and a couple of upper troughs for the week ahead with fairly hot conditions in the north and warm conditions in the south, becoming cooler later. The odd shower or storm, heavier in the east where falls could well add up. Not a lot in it elsewhere, but might be a few mms. Be good to get ahead of a likely hot week around Christmas and New Year.

Still quite humid in the south with hill fog here this morning.

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Re: December 18-22: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers.

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:31 am

Not quite lining up for central parts at the moment but east as HB mentioned might get some good downpours when it taps some moisture.

EC ensemble becoming very interesting with regards to heat around the 2 to 3 week mark. This could get a little feral when the wind comes from the north into the new year http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 11#p108111

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Re: December 18-22: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers.

Post by Adam38 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:19 pm

The heat is building up in Perth for the run up to Christmas with a few days of 37-40c.

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Re: December 18-22: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers.

Post by snowfall » Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:07 pm

Looking like quite a warm Christmas coming up. And the thought of a major heatwave not long after does not fill me with joy :|

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by Adam38 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:15 am

Thunderstorms are sparking up in the Wimmera and Mallee districts.

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by hillybilly » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:12 pm

Woke up to our eighth foggy day in a row in Ferny Creek this morning. Was a couple of spots of rain with 0.2mm in the gauge.

EC and GFS getting a little more interested in this system, particularly the secondary trough that comes through on Friday morning. Still looks pretty subtle to me, but maybe we will get lucky :?:

High based showers today with the odd dribble.

That heat over the inland is awful. The Alice had it's second hottest day on record for December yesterday (missed the record by just 0.1C). This heat loops back into WA in the next week and heats further. 850T a week from now are currently forecast to locally reach 34C - the highest I can recall ever seeing for OZ...

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by Gordon » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:30 pm

Slightly more than a dribble here with about 1mm of light but genuine rain. Nice to keep things fresh for a bit longer!

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by hillybilly » Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:54 am

Trace from yesterday’s showers. Warm 24C, but we missed the real heat (thankfully). 48.0C in Birdsville which is the highest December temperature in Queensland for 18 years :?

Upper troughs sharpening up the next 48 hours with a fairly solid front pushing through tomorrow. Progs still keen on a burst of showers and possible storms for central and eastern areas. Fair bit of wiggle in details, but could well be local falls above 20mm.

Hot week next week. Current EC suggests low to mid 40s possible by late in the week (and puts 850Ts above 33C onto the WA coast :o ). Northern Vic looks like a week of 30s to 40s :o

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by Didjman » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:13 am

Unstable sky here - heaps of Castellanus about.

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by stevco123 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:37 am

Sunny - great :D

Mild and not too hot - great :D

Humidity - Bloody awful :x


(BTW can the moderators amend the timings on the forum. It seems to be about 3 hours behind since the upgrade)
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by Tassiedave » Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:29 pm

Heavy rain and storms here in Northern Tassie. 12mm in 20 minutes here!

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by Jake Smethurst » Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:11 pm

stevco123 wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:37 am
(BTW can the moderators amend the timings on the forum. It seems to be about 3 hours behind since the upgrade)
Hi Stevco, there doesn't appear to be any issues on our end (the times are coming up correctly). Feel free to PM with further details re the issue.
Jake - Site Admin/Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
http://www.jakesmethurst1.wordpress.com

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by Tassiedave » Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:12 pm

Massive upgrade to Launceston rainfall forecast tomorrow 15-40mm with heavy rain and storms. Launceston got 22.8mm from convergence producing some solid storms. A similar pattern tomorrow afternoon.

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by Tassiedave » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:28 pm

Off topic but amazing scenes coming out of Sydney with massive hail impacting a wide area.

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by Didjman » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:34 pm

Tassiedave wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:28 pm
Off topic but amazing scenes coming out of Sydney with massive hail impacting a wide area.
On ABC News Site, they are tennis ball size in some pics!

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by hillybilly » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:07 pm

Crazy day in New South Wales. Heaps of heat records or near misses out west then series of violent storms through Sydney and neighbouring areas. Damage looks bad :(

Cool and humid here with mizzle and mist. 0.2mm in the gauge.

Looks like a decent burst of showers tomorrow with a sharp upper trough. The surface responds with a deepening trough. Could well be some local heavy falls in central parts. Be good to get a good drink before next weeks heat.

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by snowfall » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:04 pm

Gosh, those were enormous hailstones in Sydney today. Amazing to see the pics but wouldn’t be wanting the damage. Cool and gloomy here this evening with 12c currently and the odd sprinkle of rain but not enough to register in the gauge. Really hope something reasonable happens tomorrow with regard to rain, especially if we end up with scorching weather to close out the month.

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by hillybilly » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:01 am

Foggy drizzly night in the Dandenongs with SWly flow at the surface but the drizzle/cloud coming in from the east. Most wierd; I don't think I've even seen that before :?: Just over 5mm in the gauge, so a useful little drink for the garden.

Showers should pick up today across Gippsland to west Central. Tending to think the city to Macedon/central ranges area will do best. It's an odd system with a decent westerly upper trough coming through aloft and upslide south to southeast flow. That doesn't happen very often for us.

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by Tassiedave » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:30 am

Its outside the dates for this thread but am I reading it correctly that Friday December 28th will be super hot? The red line on ACCESS G is a long way south.

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Re: VIC: Hot in the north, warm in the south with some showers - December 18-22 2018

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:36 am

Upper trough has good moisture around 700 hPa this afternoon and evening in central areas with Total totals over 50 according to Access C's latest. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. Latest Access C showing a nice drop in certain areas including Melbourne CBD.


@Tassie Dave, really depends on the southerly vs northerly. Inland will be incredibly hot on 28th Dec, EC projected 50c this morning in parts of W.A.
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