Victoria: Major upper and surface lows - 12–16 Dec 2018

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JasmineStorm
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Victoria: Major upper and surface lows - 12–16 Dec 2018

Post by JasmineStorm » Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:38 am

Might as well pull the trigger on this one :)

It seems certain that a significant upper low will move into S.A on Wednesday. Based on potential, this atmospheric set up is undeniably extreme. Looking at past events, the position and temperature layers of the upper trough is very similar to the Feb 2005 event. No 2 events are ever the same but there is a pattern between large upper tropospheric cyclonic vortexes and tropical depression /cyclones. Feb 2011 was a different type of set up but tropical cyclones were also involved in that event.

The moisture content is almost at equatorial levels. EC projecting total Precip water levels over 60mm on Friday into Victoria in certain areas, I can’t remember seeing values this high before (Maybe HB would know the record?) How extreme the system becomes is all about Tropical cyclone Owen’s redevelopment and steering through Queensland and how much moisture is sent down the atmospheric river. At the moment, models differ and differ on each run so all the normal downgrades and upgrades occur.

I’m not going to have a stab at rainfall totals or where supercells may develop until I see what TC Owen does but the potential puts it into the historical event category.

Let the fun begin :)
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EC PWAT 0912 12Z.jpg
EC PWAT 0912 12Z.jpg (230.18 KiB) Viewed 1608 times
EC vs Feb 2005.jpg
EC vs Feb 2005.jpg (864.82 KiB) Viewed 1608 times

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by weathergasm » Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:03 pm

Well, I'm definitely in "wait and see" mode for this one - looks a little too good to be true. Will assume it's not going to happen until Wednesday night at the earliest. That's my coping mechanism and I'm sticking with it!😅

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Blackie » Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:02 pm

Thanks JS. All ingredients look to be present for something good - extreme. Would love to see a repeat of Feb 2005 (cut off low stalled over Vic for 2 days).

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by StratoBendigo » Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:11 pm

00Z AXS-G is going all out with 120mm for us. An outlier though. I'm thinking 50mm is on the cards...

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by hillybilly » Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:22 am

Progs look impressive. General 25-150mm falls, and most spots showing 50mm plus. Details will matter a lot, which will wiggle, for who will see the most. Later Wednesday and Thursday look ripe for lots of storms then heavy rainfall. Progs variously producing falls of 50mm plus on Thursday alone :o Looks like central and north central are probably best placed on those days based on the current batch of Progs.

Btw watch TC or Ex TC Owen. Amazing track with multiple coastal crossings. Could be a big rain producer up there.

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:18 pm

Latest Access R 00Z is locking onto the upper trough displacing the polar jet on Wednesday around the Bight allowing the fractured polar jet to interact with subtropical jet over S.A. This will trigger big storms for Vic Wednesday into Thursday. No model can accurately predict storm rainfall totals on a local mesoscale level as proven recently. Ex TC Owen is now heading towards the gulf and is likely to be a tropical cyclone again within 48 hours. IMO, if Owen stalls in the gulf and locks the atmospheric river for 24 hours, this will be an absolute water bomb into Vic at the end of the week.

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:00 pm

Always nice to include the BoM 4 day - a little complex on the surface you could say. Friday displaying an occluded front and a connecting trough the TC Owen :)
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Gordon
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Gordon » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:36 pm

The low doesn't seem to want to leave in a hurry!

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:45 pm

I'm starting to have flashbacks of 2010-11....

Incidentally, the grass around here is looking greener today than it was in October after yesterday's barrage of storms.

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by wolfcat » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:46 pm


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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Macedonian » Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:51 pm

I can't believe the weather man on ch2 was really negative about the potential few days of rain. It is sad that rainy weather is seen as "bad".

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Didjman » Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:56 pm

Macedonian wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:51 pm
I can't believe the weather man on ch2 was really negative about the potential few days of rain. It is sad that rainy weather is seen as "bad".
It starts from our childhood; "rain, rain go away....". I do agree with you 100% though!
I am looking forward to pre birthday fireworks :D Maybe even some on Saturday :D

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by hillybilly » Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:18 pm

Macedonian wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:51 pm
I can't believe the weather man on ch2 was really negative about the potential few days of rain. It is sad that rainy weather is seen as "bad".
I find a lot of city people just lose sight of the fact that the minor inconvenience of a bit of wet weather, is a small price to pay for having the rain people on the land, gardens, forest, rivers etc need...

Latest set of progs look very good. EC got ~90mm here. GFS and CMC basically the same.

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Macedonian » Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:00 pm

Too true. We all need rain, even city people.
I think weather presenters should present weather and leave their own personal opinions or bias out of their presentation.

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Sean » Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:07 pm

Macedonian wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:00 pm
Too true. We all need rain, even city people.
I think weather presenters should present weather and leave their own personal opinions or bias out of their presentation.
I think anyone that can remember the Millennium drought practically worships the rain or just anyone with a garden :D


The BOM's forecast is exciting right now, though it's sad how infrequently we see a "40mm" in the progs. Hopefully we double, if not triple that over the coming days, though I won't hold my breath. Even 20 would be great.

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by tonycynic » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:36 am

Nice to see the rain totals still looking good, am expecting the usual downgrade on tonight''s forecast to 10-20mm and then have everyone complain when we get 50mm. :P Another hard to forecast system for rain totals.

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:33 am

Everything from 30 to 90mm in this morning's model forecasts.... Much will depend on where the Low goes.

GFS goes off-tap for Melbourne. As in up to 120mm.

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by stevco123 » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:43 am

My weather station forecast, which follows the EC model I think, has 90mm for the 3 days (Thursday, Friday and Saturday).

It's been onto this for a week, and has upped totals very gradually in that time.

Something will happen, but it's certainly a waiting game to see where and how much.
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by occluded » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:29 am

Last two GFS runs have had 100mm+ for the eastern suburbs and has been pretty consistent the past few days. Even the conservative BoM forecast has 15-40mm for Thursday.

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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Wilko » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:09 am

Certainly an rare set up
I haven’t seen this before at this scale
IMO the joker in the pack is moisture infeed from TC Owen if it remains in Gulf
Can you imagine the Moisture from the “boiling”Gulf of Carpenteria getting sucked into the Low stalled over Victoria !
Looking at the latest advice on ex TC Owen
the bureau has Owen slowing in the Gulf of Carpentaria
until Friday 14th and intensifying as a category three all the while still in the Gulf !😳
If this occurs we will need to build the ARK

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