VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

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StratoBendigo
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VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:09 pm

Looks like a stinking hot end to the Week, especially for Northern Vic.

Perhaps some storms in the mix as well with a trough on Friday evening onwards....

Enjoy the cool weather today while you can!

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Cass » Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:10 pm

Not looking forward to Friday if Bendigo is 39 we will be in the 40's and I'm not far out of town. What is worrying is how dry everything is. Make sure everyone stays safe, and hydrated.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Hawker » Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:54 pm

"Perhaps some storms in the mix as well with a trough on Friday evening onwards...."

Yeah scratch the heat and wind, but it looks relatively short lived.
Bom's 10 day model has been toying with a lingering trough and some instability.
May be a bit stormy after.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:25 am

Is looking hot. Low to mid 30s Thursday, mid to high 30s Friday, touching the 40s in the usual hot spots. Not so convinced about rainfall post the front, with not a lot of consistency between the models.

Fortunately this one doesn't properly tap the record hot air that currently sits over northern Australia. The heat that say over coastal Queensland last week it doing a big anticyclonic loop and will be in WA by the end of the week. Lots of stations will approach or exceed December records as this happens :o 850Ts will peak around 33C which is hot enough for high 40s.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Tassiedave » Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:45 am

Wow HB - I notice Marble Bar is looking at a couple of 47 degree days at the end of the week!

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by stevco123 » Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:45 am

Tassiedave wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:45 am
Wow HB - I notice Marble Bar is looking at a couple of 47 degree days at the end of the week!
Another site that is also very hot and usually beats Marble Bar on spike heat days is Pannawonica, currently going for 48 on Sunday. Nothing unusual but still damn hot
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Adam38 » Tue Dec 04, 2018 2:20 pm

My aunt is a teacher in Newman W.A, that is a hot place! It’s 7 day forecast is for 43c everyday and Newman
is almost 600m ASL.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:37 pm

Another site that is also very hot and usually beats Marble Bar on spike heat days is Pannawonica, currently going for 48 on Sunday. Nothing unusual but still damn hot
A number that high used to be about a once a decade event for WA. Before 2011 the WA December record was just 48.8C. Guess it's inevitable that as hot becomes more normal, we find ourselves increasingly "normalising" what used to be very extreme temperatures :( I find myself doing this - normal winter feels cold, and a near record summer like last year feels normal.

We must be a reasonable chance to beat the pre-2011 record in the coming week, as numbers tend to bounce around by +/-1C due to local factors.

Looking for the EC update. The last run lost interested in rain, but the other models remain somewhat interested.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Gordon » Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:01 pm

The models seem particularly dazed and confused about the rainfall component from Friday onwards...

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Sean » Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:21 pm

Gordon wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:01 pm
The models seem particularly dazed and confused about the rainfall component from Friday onwards...
Decent troughs keep showing in the synoptics but quickly disappear before eventuating.

But at least we've seen that rain is possible at the moment, for central areas at least.

All that heat up north is scaring me though. Average rainfall predicted by the BOM may mean diddly squat if evaporation is high.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Wilko » Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:44 pm

Sean wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:21 pm
Gordon wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:01 pm
The models seem particularly dazed and confused about the rainfall component from Friday onwards...
Decent troughs keep showing in the synoptics but quickly disappear before eventuating.

But at least we've seen that rain is possible at the moment, for central areas at least.

All that heat up north is scaring me though. Average

rainfall predicted by the BOM may mean diddly squat if evaporation is high.
Absolutely me too ! 😲

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by wolfcat » Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:07 pm

After the last rain event in which I got 55mm in the Nylex, I didn't around to emptying it for a few days. It wasn't above 30c and in 3 days I lost 5mm to evaporation, the rain we have had won't last long once the heat really kicks in.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Gordon » Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:01 pm

I'm trying to work out how Ballarat temps of 14-32 Thursday, 20-34 on Friday, and 18-28 on Saturday, constitute a 'low intensity heatwave' :? Really??

Image

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by wolfcat » Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:10 pm

Looking good today Melbourne, looking good.

Image

Big Summer Sky by Wolf, on Flickr

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Wilko » Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:28 pm

wolfcat wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:10 pm
Looking good today Melbourne, looking good.

Image

Big Summer Sky by Wolf, on Flickr
Great shot

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Rivergirl » Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:36 pm

Awesome sky and capture wolfcat :)

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Didjman » Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:21 pm

Marestails were impressive over Tulla too

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly » Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:46 pm

I'm trying to work out how Ballarat temps of 14-32 Thursday, 20-34 on Friday, and 18-28 on Saturday, constitute a 'low intensity heatwave
That's about 37, 39 and 33C at sea level. For December it is getting up there. The concept of heatwave is relative (so cooler spot reach threshold at lower numbers etc).

Friday is looking scorching to me. 850T will be around 23C for most of Vic come middle of the afternoon. The old rule of thumb of +17C puts most spots on the flats on target for a number not far from 40C.

Looks like a bit of rain after the front, though not convinced yet on totals. CMC and GFS-V3 pretty keen, for falls of 5-25mm for the eastern half of Vic. EC hasn't been so keen.

Possible significant system later next week which EC is really keen on.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by tonycynic » Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:30 pm

Nice pic wolfcat and great to see it on the tv. Keep cool out there people. Not looking forward to driving a truck with no ac this week.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by wolfcat » Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:05 pm

Thanks for all the positive feed back on the photo.

I am a winter person, the updated forecast of 38, making this Friday the hottest day since the 19th of Jan fills me with dread.

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