VIC - Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

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hillybilly
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VIC - Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by hillybilly » Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:45 am

Short sharp hot day followed by a gusty front with showers. Likely to approach 40C in the northwest and low to mid 30s most other parts on Saturday with gusty winds. Sharp front on Saturday night into Sunday morning with showers, which may well form a rainband. These could be moderate to heavy in parts of the south, with models locally producing 10-25mm.

Could well be a repeat later on in the week :?:

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:11 pm

Thanks..
Doongalla and winds not up my alley..

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by Didjman » Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:44 pm

That front is really hiking up from Southern Ocean!

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Dec 01, 2018 10:47 am

This frontal boundary coming in has good moisture and 60+ knot winds @ 700 hPa on the latest Access C (18z run). This could go bigger than expected in parts of central Vic in the early hours.
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Access C 3011 18Z RH wind.jpg
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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by Didjman » Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:23 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 10:47 am
This could go bigger than expected in parts of central Vic in the early hours.
Some of my best lightning pics have been between 2 and 3 AM!

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by hillybilly » Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:13 pm

Didjman wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:23 pm
JasmineStorm wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 10:47 am
This could go bigger than expected in parts of central Vic in the early hours.
Some of my best lightning pics have been between 2 and 3 AM!
Both GFS-V3 and CMC showing locally 20-30mm with the front. Looks to peak near central and east central. Will be a welcome start to summer if that happens :D

First hot one in FC for a while with a max of 28C for us, which is 34 to 36C at sea level (give or take). kids in the pool all arvo :P

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by mick » Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:26 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:13 pm
Didjman wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:23 pm
JasmineStorm wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 10:47 am
This could go bigger than expected in parts of central Vic in the early hours.
Some of my best lightning pics have been between 2 and 3 AM!
Both GFS-V3 and CMC showing locally 20-30mm with the front. Looks to peak near central and east central. Will be a welcome start to summer if that happens :D

First hot one in FC for a while with a max of 28C for us, which is 34 to 36C at sea level (give or take). kids in the pool all arvo :P
Since I have given up trying to get pics of lightning, storms are more fun.
I see the vic obs are down, but its 30 kts from the ENE down here in on the coast at gippy/

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:16 pm

Snowtown in S.A just has had multiple gusts around 156 km/h on a squall line.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS60801 ... 5670.shtml

It seems the upper level jet is splitting in 2 before the frontal boundary. Volatile mix
Last edited by JasmineStorm on Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by snowfall » Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:18 pm

First really hot one here in Gisborne South too; maxed out at 28.9c. And it’s windy, so very much a drying day. I think there’s a good chance we’ll end up rainshadowed with this one, so not expecting a large fall here. Even a few millimetres to keep things green for now would be good if it happens.

Rain is pushing through western parts of the state currently.

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by snowfall » Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:23 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:16 pm
Snowtown in S.A just has had multiple gusts around 156 km/h on a squall line.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS60801 ... 5670.shtml

It seems the upper level jet is splitting in 2 before the frontal boundary. Volatile mix
Wow, that is a powerful squall line! Likely to have been some damage with that.

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Dec 01, 2018 8:29 pm

Water vapour being detected on multiple cells over -60c coming into SW Vic. It's a fizzing atmosphere. Handy link if you want to see real time lightning strikes. http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightnin ... php?map=22

Updates every 5 sec or so

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by Didjman » Sat Dec 01, 2018 8:51 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 8:29 pm
Water vapour being detected on multiple cells over -60c coming into SW Vic. It's a fizzing atmosphere. Handy link if you want to see real time lightning strikes. http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightnin ... php?map=22

Updates every 5 sec or so
Thats the link we need!

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by flyfisher » Sat Dec 01, 2018 8:52 pm

That is awesome, the live lightening detector site - with sound on too. I have added it to my favorite weather sites.

A few flying ants out here with trout rising in the creek to them, the flying ants usually come out in stormy weather.

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by Sean » Sat Dec 01, 2018 9:13 pm

This one is also good: https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en# ... =0;b=;ts=0;

Crazy active storm just off the southern United States at the moment :o

Hoping for a night storm here, nothing beats them. Love the flashes. But not sure it's going to make it. Looks a bit patchy and the lightning appears to be petering out. Though these systems sometimes reintensify when reaching central areas so who knows. Strangely though, I have the habit of sleeping right through even the loudest of storms.

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by Wilko » Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:02 pm

Cool change has just come through Moorabbin

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by stevco123 » Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:05 pm

Minimum 6.9 to a max of 30.8 here. Quite a range
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by Sean » Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:39 pm

Ugh, seems to be decaying, especially further north. Thinking is sprinkle and maybe a rumble if I'm lucky.

Edit: also, what's going on with Vic orbs? Technical issues or upgrades?

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by stevco123 » Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:44 pm

Sean wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:39 pm
Ugh, seems to be decaying, especially further north. Thinking is sprinkle and maybe a rumble if I'm lucky.

Edit: also, what's going on with Vic orbs? Technical issues or upgrades?
It all seems to be moving too fast. But i still feel a heavy rainband will develop about 3am and clear out by 7.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by James » Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:00 am

Well i am going to bed, made a fool of me again, telling everyone about the severe storm warning and putting everything undercover - only for the warning to be cancelled....

Lost count of the times thats happened in the last month, it gets to the point nobody takes any notice.

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Re: Dec 1-2: Hot day followed by a showery and windy front

Post by hillybilly » Sun Dec 02, 2018 3:08 am

James wrote:
Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:00 am
Well i am going to bed, made a fool of me again, telling everyone about the severe storm warning and putting everything undercover - only for the warning to be cancelled....

Lost count of the times thats happened in the last month, it gets to the point nobody takes any notice.
Radars firing again. Next hour or two could be interesting in central Vic.

This wind gusts back in SA are quite extraordinary. Snowtown has a big wind farm above it. Wonder how it performed during that squall :o

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