Victoria: Another Decent Cold Front - Nov 12-15 2018

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StratoBendigo
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Victoria: Another Decent Cold Front - Nov 12-15 2018

Post by StratoBendigo » Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:55 am

Hot weather on Monday is expected, before a decent trough and cold front Tuesday-Wednesday.

For the Northern Country, forecast models are tossing up a divergent mix of rainfall totals - anything from 4mm to 50mm!

Discuss!

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by Hawker » Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:24 pm

yes that's about it Strato, get lucky or miss altogether

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by Tassiedave » Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:57 am

Big downgrade this morning? Rain shifted East?

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by hillybilly » Sun Nov 11, 2018 11:22 am

Progs doing the wiggle thing again :roll:

EC mainly shifted east. CMC and GFS3 still have good falls quite general. Across all models the northeast looks good for 20-50mm.

Could get 5 or 25mm in FC. Hoping for some followup as some toastie weather in the offering in the next ten days.

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:21 am

Looks like a showery multiple trough scenario across Tuesday and Wednesday. At the moment it doesn't have any real explosive triggers but it is late Spring, so last minute upgrades can't be ruled out :) Hoping for a few mm and would like to be surprised.


Next week I'm seeing something that made me check that my extreme weather kit is in order. Too early to really know but it has the initial recipe of extreme. Historically, Victoria's climatology suggests some of the biggest weather events in recorded history happen in the next few weeks. Whether this becomes one of them, it's too early to know but I'm watching it like a hawk :) http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 54#p107154

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Australis(Shell3155)
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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:40 am

got wet while watering the garden this morning..

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by hillybilly » Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:57 am

Rather a hot one in FC today with a minimum of just 20C for us.

Not really holding out much hope for this system. Has all moved north and east on successive runs of the models. There’s reasonable Instability, but the low levels are generally dry. Bit frustrating to watch this event slowly fade as it has approached.

The northeast will do ok, but the rest of Vic will struggle. Am expecting 2-5mm locally. Might sneak a bit more, if we get lucky.

Next week is look rather more interesting, though that’s seven days out which gives the models plenty of time to downgrade ;)

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by Adam38 » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:38 am

I was hoping for some decent follow up rain but it now looks unlikely. I will be up at Cabarita Beach(far north NSW coast)
for a week from Friday so I am hoping for something more interesting weather wise up there.

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by Skywalker » Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:28 pm

Adam38 wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:38 am
I was hoping for some decent follow up rain but it now looks unlikely.
Same here. Things are virtually back where they were prior to last week's rainfall event, especially with the warmer conditons & disgusting wind today. :(
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by jimmyay » Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:10 pm

Is it actually going to rain today in Melb!?

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by jimmyay » Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:10 pm

Is it actually going to rain today in Melb!?

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:37 pm

I chose the wrong title for this thread.

It should be - "Another Fizzer for most of Vic". Currently 32c and it doesn't feel at all like it'll rain today.

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by Tassiedave » Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:30 pm

Max temps in Tas today: Hobart 30.5, Campania 30.5, Bushy Park 30.0, Launceston 29.0, Fingal 28.3, Strahan 26.7, Wynyard 20.2

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by Dane » Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:11 pm


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Didjman
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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by Didjman » Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:46 pm

That should fill the hole a bit!

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by Adam38 » Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:14 pm

Some showers are starting to form west of B.Marsh along what looks like a wind change.
Getting a few rumbles now!

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by wolfcat » Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:07 pm

It did slow down, but it is nearly here. Geelong went from a high of 34.2 and down to 17

Image

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by snowfall » Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:08 pm

Yes a narrow line of showers to the west, which are very slowly pushing east. Can’t be sure if the showers will even make it here!

Shame the event has dwindled - it was looking quite promising a few days ago. Just have to hope that the next one on the models holds up. The challenge at this time of the year is that evaporation rates are now high, so it doesn’t take long for things to dry out, especially if there is a long gap between rain events.

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:28 pm

We might get a few mm in the morning I reckon.

Anyway, EC is all optimistic about next week. Sure to downgrade massively.

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Re: Another Decent Cold Front: Nov 12-15

Post by Didjman » Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:57 pm

That line developing on 128k radar is starting to look impressive - but how much is virga given the conditions? It appears to be the trough line.

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