Victoria: Waiting and hoping - 26 Oct - 4 Nov 2018

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Gordon
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Victoria: Waiting and hoping - 26 Oct - 4 Nov 2018

Post by Gordon » Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:34 am

Time for a new thread, if only to bring the dates up to date! And something has to happen sooner or later...

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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by jimmyay » Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:05 pm

Long term forecasts are for the dry to extend into summer.... November looks to be dry. We may not reach 400mm this year at my local station (moorabbin).

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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Sean » Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:32 am

The record breaking heat up north is a little troubling.. won't be surprised if we're hit with an early-season heatwave this year.

That rain, meanwhile, almost seems like a lifetime ago now, though it's given stuff a burst of life down this way.

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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:41 am

Models are projecting an interacting subtropical and polar jet dipping into Vic this coming Friday with an upper low in the bight. This will help amplify a slow moving eastward trough through Vic. Precip water near 35 to 45mm, K index in the high 30’s, good CAPE, total totals over 50 and winds @700 hPa around 50 to 60 knots to support the development of supercells from the NW into central areas.

Storm enthusiasts should start getting ready for a big Friday if models verify :D
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by tonycynic » Sat Oct 27, 2018 4:26 pm

Warm weather is coming fast. Overnight low for Yarra Glen next two nights is 2c, by Thursday the low is 20c. :shock:

snowfall
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by snowfall » Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:52 pm

Interesting, Jasmine. Hope something along these lines eventuates. I see GFS is currently modelling some decent rain in central areas Friday into Saturday, although EC not so keen at the moment.

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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Tassiedave » Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:18 am

Lot of heat up north. Winton and Longreach 35 degrees at 9 am! Longreach was 44 degrees yesterday.

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Didjman
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Didjman » Sun Oct 28, 2018 3:19 pm

Currawongs are "wolfwhistling" here - usually a sign of an upcoming change in weather.

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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Tassiedave » Sun Oct 28, 2018 4:36 pm

Wow! 41 degrees forecast for Mildura for Thursday 1st November! would that be the earliest ever 40 degree temp in Victoria's history?

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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by JasmineStorm » Sun Oct 28, 2018 6:58 pm

Certainly hot inland now as Tassie Dave has mentioned.

Models continue to suggest a violent squall line of fast SE moving supercells on Friday afternoon across central areas. The projected set up including the position of the interacting jet streams will have the severe weather mets at the BoM starting to widen the eyes, crack the fingers and firmly grip the pencils in anticipation of drawing the STW red attack arrows.

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hillybilly
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by hillybilly » Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:44 pm

Been sitting back watching this one unfold. Latest batch of Progs look encouraging for rain with a decent upper trough amplifying to our west and dragging down heat then eventually plenty of moisture. EC us about 40mm here over the sequence, but has been jumpy so not too confident on totals.

Thursday and Friday ranging mostly from low to high 30s. Been so many record breaking spring heatwaves so not expecting record this time, but it will still be ridiculously warm for mid spring. Could see local early season heat, but mostly just near misses.

That heat over Queensland has been approaching records averaged across the state as a whole. A really large area unseasonably hot for the time of year.

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Australis(Shell3155)
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:53 pm

Didjman wrote:
Sun Oct 28, 2018 3:19 pm
Currawongs are "wolfwhistling" here - usually a sign of an upcoming change in weather.
Same, yesterday and today. mornings, noisey..
My mother in law noticed neighbours smoke from fire going low, she says this indicated change in weather.
Flag is blowing from the south, this is odd..

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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Tassiedave » Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:31 am

Latest GFS Raincast winds rainfall right back over the next 8 days.

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hillybilly
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by hillybilly » Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:32 am

Progs are messy, but generally promising. Multiple troughs, and timing of each will matter a lot for who gets storms. First approaches on Thursday with fairly isolated activity, second on Friday looks very activity with LI heading very negative (dropping to -4 to -7) in central and eastern areas, third one late Sunday into Monday with widespread showers and rain, and potentially another around Wednesday.

Totals add up, with falls locally approaching 50mm, but they are patchy so will be winners and losers :(

Friday looks very active for north central and east central through to the northeast. Timing of front is good (mid to late arvo). Could make for a very thundery arvo with big wet storms. EC is tending to show early showers and storms, clearing then more storms, which is the pretty classic set up for bigger events. Mid arvo dew points reach nearly 20C so plenty of moisture if things fire.

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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Skywalker » Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:14 am

I hold very little hope of receiving anything here so have began saturating my gardens.

I'm heading down to the island over the cup weekend so will be interesting to see what transpires down there.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Australis(Shell3155)
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:30 pm

Open for Inspection Sat.
None of what your mentioning is required.
Manicured gardens and sparkling windows. Pass.

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hillybilly
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by hillybilly » Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:21 pm

Big downgrade across the models for Friday. EC gone from about 30mm to about 3mm here the last 24 hours :( Not good. So dry and so need the rain.
Change looks to have sped up which is bad for storms.

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Australis(Shell3155)
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:38 am

hillybilly wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:21 pm
Big downgrade across the models for Friday. EC gone from about 30mm to about 3mm here the last 24 hours :( Not good. So dry and so need the rain.
Change looks to have sped up which is bad for storms.
Only Time Id say Im happy to hear this..
had visions of march 2010 hail storm shredding my garden to pieces..

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hillybilly
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by hillybilly » Wed Oct 31, 2018 6:05 am

Models staged a bit of a dead cat bounce. Really messy and sparying all over the place. Is starting to look like the second part later Sunday into Monday will be the most productive.

Could add over the ten day period coming up, or could fizz once again.

Woken to a humid and foggy morning here. Few showers inbound from the west, but suspect mostly virga.

Odd shower tomorrow. Not quite clear why EC and GFS-V3 aren’t showing much for Friday as the instability is significant. Appears that the main issue is modest low level humidity with DPs near 10C which just puts the LCL/cloud base too high. This set up would usually see sparse local storms so probably hit and miss, rather than nothing.

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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:55 pm

Should start seeing instability across Vic tomorrow as the trough draws nearer. Friday remains quite interesting indeed. Access R latest suggesting that lower level tropospheric vertical temp differences are edging into the extreme range. This projection along with many other indicators if correct, would likely see a developing squall line and shelf cloud that explodes on the eastern half of Melbourne and into the ranges when surface heating kicks in Friday afternoon including a barrage of lightning. Looking forward to reviewing Access C from tomorrow.... :)
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