VIC - Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29 2018

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hillybilly
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VIC - Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29 2018

Post by hillybilly » Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:53 am

Strong front showing up for late in the week, but like every system this month it looks to be moisture starved.

Uppers get very chilly Friday night into Saturday morning, with 850Ts dipping to around -4 to perhaps -5C. Freezing levels dip to about 800m, so snow flurries where there are showers should drop to around 500 to 600m. Should see some nasty frosts locally where winds drop out.

Rain totals look ok on the southwest coast and northeast. Elsewhere will be pretty hit miss, with little to no rain north of the divide :(

Progs showing 2-15mm across the metro area so won’t prevent us having a quite awful monthly total in the end (the city is just 3mm above its record low set back in 2008) :(

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by Tassiedave » Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:26 am

How is the Grand Final forecast looking for Saturday?

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by Dane » Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:12 pm

GF Day looks pretty cold with some showers easing during the afternoon though, there may be only a brief shower ot two during the game. Max of about 13c.

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by Macedonian » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:58 pm

Freezing here. 3.8C now after a lofty max of 7.4C this afternoon. Feels like winter.

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by hillybilly » Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:13 am

The inevitable downgrade is underway with GFS and EC dropping rain from 10-20mm to 1-10mm for most southern and mountain areas. Still looks cold, with freezing levels dropping to around 800 or 900m so a flurry is quite possible in the Dandenongs, Trentham and Macedon but moisture starved.

Starting to get desperate for rain here now. Landing at Melbourne airport yesterday arvo the grass is starting to dry off, and nature strips right through to the middle eastern burbs were yellowed or brown under trees etc. September is/used to be really reliable and on average about our wettest month in much of the central Vic so bad to have such a dry one after months of lean falls :(

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:48 am

Definitely lacking moisture this system but certainly cold. Multiple models starting to show an upper trough mid next week triggering a thunderstorm outbreak. K index's the highest since last season if they verify.

and in other news , El Nino well and truly back on the table with a significant spike near the equator. http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 76#p106576

and potentially the first ever recorded September cyclone in the eastern Australian region near the Solomon Islands within the next 36 hours. Tropical Cyclone Liua has now been born.

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by flyfisher » Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:44 pm

Yes we are now very much into a hardcore drought scenario. All the indicators are working against us.

1. Cold water to the NW and west and SW - no real moisture from the Indian Ocean

2. The warmest waters in the Pacific are now east of the Solomons and not north of New Guinea. This is inducing low pressure in the eastern Coral sea and will encourage southerly winds along the QLD coast, reducing moisture coming into the interior. In fact the first TC of the year has already formed in this area.

It's the double IOD/El Nino combination. All it takes is a negative SAM and horrid dry NW winds will occur. Although we can still get freak events like an inland cut of low - prepare for dry, drought and fires. Ironically it's looking like that a little next week.

I noticed water pouring into Cardinia reservoir last weekend down the step ramp so it appears the desal plant is now running, which is a good thing to do before the storages plummet in upcoming hot weather.

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by flyfisher » Thu Sep 27, 2018 4:12 pm

I should clarify it's looking a little troughy/stormy next week.

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by hillybilly » Thu Sep 27, 2018 7:56 pm

Almost warm here today with a maximum of 19C. Grass is taking off with the sudden onset of warmth and sunshine. Need some rain now to keep it going (our horse paddock is pretty thin this year as the flash drought Feb/Mar/Apr hammered the grass, and then when it finally started to rain properly in May it turned cold). Need a decent spring.

Bit of a bounce in the rain for this system, with 5-10mm showing up for here on the latest runs.

Next week looks somewhat interesting but too far out to be confident.

Fly fisher you’re spot on about the drought indicators. All pointing the wrong way. This one also came off a very dry autumn which is a bit unusual.

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by hillybilly » Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:59 pm

Quite a winters day up here with a short live max of 9.7C and now down to 6.5C. Had nearly 7mm with a couple of thumping showers with hail, and drizzly showers and mist Inbetween. Was down in Knox when one of the showers hit and felt thundery with big drops, but didn’t hear any rumbles :?

Thinking we should get a bit sleet, graupel or the odd flurry early hours tomorrow. 850Ts dip to -4 to -5C for a period and the freezing level dips to about 800 to 900m. Trentham and Macedon also a chance depending on showers.

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by Macedonian » Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:19 pm

Colder at your place than here today HB.
We made it to 10.5C and only 2mm :(
Cold now 3C.

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by hillybilly » Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:39 am

Dipped to 1.7C here this morning with nearly 10mm in the gauge. Had a couple of snow showers - first at 4:30 which woke me up and the second at 6:30.

Managed to get a video of the second. See https://mobile.twitter.com/ozhillbilly/ ... 60/video/1

PS Progs dropped the solid rain event for central areas next week. Hope it comes back on the next runs :(

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by Macedonian » Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:35 am

No snow here but a freezing morning, one of the coldest this year at -1.7C and still only 1C now.

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by Dane » Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:39 am

9.2mm's up to 9am this morning not a bad drop MTD 35.6mm's about half the average.

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by Didjman » Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:10 am

1.5mm here :( I need an ark lol!

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by hillybilly » Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:51 pm

Chilly for mid spring max of 8.7C here today. Nearly 2mm more so about 11mm for the event. MTD just shy of 50mm which is about 40% of average :( That’s eight of nine months below average this year, which is pretty grim.

October looks like starting out with an extended dry spell too :? Hopefully something appears in the week ahead.

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by Gordon » Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:47 pm

-1C this morning which is extremely cold for us. One shower just missed when the temp was below zero so expect snow briefly fell nearby.

Otherwise, a poor result - just 1.5 mm, so we are going to finish the month on less than 30 mm by the looks - very dry; fortunately our first below average month for a while.

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Sun Sep 30, 2018 4:26 am

Happened to be just finishing the mowing friday, with one of the showers being pretty heavy,
needed to last an hour think it was lucky to be 2minutes.
Enough to settle the dust.. don't think ours was worth checking the gauge.

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by Amandagorural » Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:19 pm

Can someone with a bit of know how tell what the forecast is like on the 12th and 13th Oct.? Some Extended forecasts are saying rain and possibly storms. I forget which systems to look at as it's been a while

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Re: Cold outbreak with some showers: September 28-29

Post by Adam38 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:35 pm

I ended the month on 5mm... I should imagine that is close to some sort of record.

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