Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

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hillybilly
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Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by hillybilly » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:35 am

Series of fast moving fronts the next week, with mild air sweeping down ahead of each of them. First is on Sunday, second late Tuesday then third around late Friday. Very mild to warm Tuesday and again around Friday. Could well approach early season records, though probably fall just short (Melbourne early season record is 26.8C).

Not a lot of rain, just the odd shower at this stage with systems moisture starved.

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: August 9-14

Post by hillybilly » Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:14 am

A mild 12C in FC yesterday with a mix of sun and cloud. Today looks similarly mild, but more cloud and maybe a shower.

Warm day on Tuesday. 850Ts get to around 12C over Melbourne and near 15C in the northwest. Will see a run at 30C in Mildura etc and Melbourne and surrounds likely to see locally near 25C. Windy and dry so will start to sap the moisture :(

Not really seeing meaningful rain in the next ten days. Something might sneak up, but fronts are flattening and tending to lack moisture and cyclonic curvature.

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: August 9-14

Post by hillybilly » Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:23 pm

12C here again today. Cloudy and quite cloudy with warm air advection kicking in around the incoming high. Got a couple of showers, with nearly a mm.

Couple of mild to perhaps warm ones coming up. Spiking into the 30s around the northwest so almost summer like :?

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: August 9-14

Post by QldTwister » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:13 pm

Think you mean September in the title lol.

Yeah nice warm week well at least 2 days and Friday

Def dry 2 weeks or so everyone but tassie inland going to roast next week as upper high builds as too 850hpa warm pool over the country

Down here so protected and looking forward to Tuesday warm sunny windy love it.

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by hillybilly » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:46 am

Think you mean September in the title lol.
Ha, fixed :)

Misty drizzle here this morning. Nothing in the gauge.

Geez tomorrow looks warm. 850Ts spike to 14-15C over Melbourne late arvo. In theory that could see a run at 30C, but looks like hottest air misses the peak solar heating so timing not quite there.

Not much proper rain in the outlook.

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by hillybilly » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:35 pm

Not that warm today in the end with cloud hanging around. Scrapped up to 12.2C here late arvo.

Tomorrow looks warm and windy.

EC trying to throw up some seriously cold air for Saturday into Sunday. Current run has snow showers to about 500m. Not a lot of precip, but something. Waiting to see if it sticks ;)

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by Gordon » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:21 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:35 pm
EC trying to throw up some seriously cold air for Saturday into Sunday. Current run has snow showers to about 500m. Not a lot of precip, but something. Waiting to see if it sticks ;)
The spring rollercoaster... Still on the cool side up here so looking forward to at least some warmth (in moderation)!

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by stevco123 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:38 am

Definitely spring weather. Was between 4 and 6 degrees in the Cranbourne/Skye area when i left for work at 7am, but it's 12 in Scoresby.

Nice day ahead. Nothing too exceptional and perfect. Could get a bit blowy later however
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by Didjman » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:08 am

temp here 12c after min of 9, wind to 31klm already.

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:55 am

Just hit 20 degC for the first time since May.

This weekend looks like it's back to winter: -4c at 850HPa is pretty chilly.

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by Skywalker » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:29 pm

The garbage northerly winds are back after perfect calm conditions yesterday. :x
This period of sustained winds will really accelerate the drying process out here in the western desert, especially with no proper rain in sight.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by Adam38 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:55 pm

My lawns have really browned off today and have become crunchy underfoot in spots...
I have never seen that in September before...

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by hillybilly » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:59 pm

Warmest air coming late today so missed the peak solar heating. Nice day around Melbourne though winds are nasty. Peaked at 17.4C here so a degree or two cooler than I was expecting. 31C just across the border in SA, but looks like Vic peaked at 29.9C. Really dry air through the Wimmera and Malle which will not be good for the crops :(

Shower or two tonight, but not expecting more than a mm or so.
My lawns have really browned off today and have become crunchy underfoot in spots...
Not surprised. This dry is creeping and will hit in a hurry with the warmer weather :?

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by hillybilly » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:22 am

Front came through but not a drop of rain. That’s a worry. I expect summer fronts to be rain free at times but fronts in the middle of spring :roll: Dew point is stuck near 0C so dry air.

Stronger front showing up for Saturday, but will again be moisture starved.

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by mick » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:57 am


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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by Dane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:25 am

Thanks Mick. Good link.

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:46 pm

GFS 00Z showing the coldest 500 hPa temp this year over central areas and snowing in Hamilton Saturday afternoon. Brutal cold shot if it verifies. Moisture @700 hPa has also upgraded in the last 24 hours.
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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by hillybilly » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:37 pm

Cool to mild mostly sunny one in FC with a max of 12C.

Starting to get mildly interested in Saturday though would like EC to come back on board. Looks cold, but not so sure on precip. Gfs and CMC are producing decent rain in southern and mountain areas, but not EC (on the latest run). The temperature difference across the front is quite stunning with 850Ts in the mid to high teens on one side and around -4 to -5C on the other side.

Wonder if we could see some obscure stats for difference between max and min on consecutive days in parts of NSW and eastern Vic :?

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by hillybilly » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:16 pm

Both EC and GFS showing quite an upgrade for the weekend. The models both have 850Ts falling to around -5 to -6C during the evening. Of course, the models might decide to back off...

The September record for Melbourne appears to be -5.6C in 1959. Of course, if there isn't a balloon flight at the time of the coldest air, then we won't have an observation.

I do wonder if we could see some spectacular temperature differences between the Saturday maximum and Sunday minimum in eastern Victoria and southern NSW (think of it as the DTR offset by half a day).

Unfortunately, I'm away on Saturday so won't get to see it :(

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Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:39 pm

Access R has dropped a 524 thickness bubble over eastern parts of Melbourne, the Dandenong's and Yarra Valley on Saturday evening with moisture at 700 hPa. That would put snow in places like Monbulk if it verifies.

EC has the upper trough getting a polar injection from 70 degrees south, over the Antartic continent.

It seems like this is the coldest air to hit Victoria since 2016 if the models are correct.
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